The Bernie Sanders Is Probably [Now Not] Going To Be The Nominee Thread (1 Viewer)

[EmBeeFiveOhFour]

We have a running thread about the 2020 Democratic race at large, but 538 is now showing that Bernie Sanders has a nearly 50% chance of carrying a majority of delegates into the Democratic National Convention (with the current runner up being "no one has a majority" at close to 40%). At some point in the near future--maybe as soon as Super Tuesday next week when he wins California--it will be time to acknowledge that Sanders is the probable nominee and there is nothing Biden or Bloomberg or anyone else in the race now can do to stop it. So, what happens then?

I know that the Trump voters will say he's crazy and use that as their excuse for voting for Trump (who they were voting for anyway under any circumstance, let's all be clear and honest about that). But how does everyone else feel about it?

 

[JimEverett]

If I'm not mistaken, Washington is mail in ballots. Not sure if that is the same for Primaries though. Don't think it makes that much of a difference either way. Primaries have low turnout. People who are super fearful probably wouldn't have voted anyway.

Yes, you are right about Washington being mail-in. So would have minimal to no effect there.

But Michigan it might - and Michigan is where Sanders has to win.

 

[The moose]

That's been my biggest worry with Biden, but man, in spite of that and in spite of his campaign having no money to advertise, the voters came out in droves for him.

It's crazy I know, but this is the first time I've felt optimistic and enthusiastic about the odds of defeating Trump.

I think it is black voters came out in droves.

The same black voters that did not show up last time.

So yes if he can energized the black vote he should win walking away.

 

[bdb13]

I think it is black voters came out in droves.

The same black voters that did not show up last time.

So yes if he can energized the black vote he should win walking away.

Black and suburban white voters. If Biden is the nominee and he gets anything resembling this type of support in the general election, he will easily win.

 

[Heathen]

Yes, you are right about Washington being mail-in. So would have minimal to no effect there.

But Michigan it might - and Michigan is where Sanders has to win.

Yeah, I have to agree. Unless Sanders wins most other states besides Mississippi handily, which I doubt -- he must win Michigan for a realistic shot at staying in this thing especially from a motivational standpoint.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

I think it is black voters came out in droves.

The same black voters that did not show up last time.

So yes if he can energized the black vote he should win walking away.

This is also why Bernie won't win. He just seems to have given up on the black vote again. He cancelled an appearance in Jackson (a heavily black community) to go to Michigan where he was supposed to give a speech in Flint to target black voters. He ended up giving his regular stump speech instead.

 

[The moose]

This is also why Bernie won't win. He just seems to have given up on the black vote again. He cancelled an appearance in Jackson (a heavily black community) to go to Michigan where he was supposed to give a speech in Flint to target black voters. He ended up giving his regular stump speech instead.

Well if he is getting killed by the black vote I could see waving the white flag on the blackest state.

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

Well if he is getting killed by the black vote I could see waving the white flag on the blackest state.

What kind of flag?

 

[The moose]

What kind of flag?

The surrender flag the white one.

The thing is missippi only trails Washington DC in percentage of black residents.

It is a lost cause. Now Michigan on the other hand you can register to vote in the primary the same day. A much wiser place for him to go after the young vote.

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

The surrender flag the white one.

The thing is missippi only trails Washington DC in percentage of black residents.

It is a lost cause. Now Michigan on the other hand you can register to vote in the primary the same day. A much wiser place for him to go after the young vote.

I know
I was poking

 

[bdb13]

All of the polling shows Biden winning Michigan, possibly by a large margin... FiveThirtyEight's odds have shifted dramatically:

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

All of the polling shows Biden winning Michigan, possibly by a large margin... FiveThirtyEight's odds have shifted dramatically:

Actually listening to their pod right now they pretty much agree that it’s hard to see how the race is not called in 8 days

 

[bdb13]

Actually listening to their pod right now they pretty much agree that it’s hard to see how the race is not called in 8 days

Yeah, if things go as it appears they will today I think Florida will be what drives home the final nail.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Yeah, if things go as it appears they will today I think Florida will be what drives home the final nail.

Yeah, there was a Louisiana pollsters on WWLTV who was saying that Louisiana might not even matter if Biden wins Michigan because they can't see Bernie doing well next Tuesday in the next slew of states (Arizona, Florida, etc.).

 

[JimEverett]

If this primary season goes the way it looks like it will - Biden winning, and winning fairly easily - I wonder if there will be a consensus among political scientists as to whether the problems with the Iowa caucus "allowed" Biden to get away with relatively poor showings in Iowa, NH, and Nevada.

Not sure about it - especially given that he took a great deal of heat after the abysmal showing in NH, so I am not sure that could have been worse. But perhaps there is something to it nonetheless.

 

[zztop]

All of the polling shows Biden winning Michigan, possibly by a large margin... FiveThirtyEight's odds have shifted dramatically:

that is a rude picture! calling Tulsi a no one

 

[bdb13]

Yeah, there was a Louisiana pollsters on WWLTV who was saying that Louisiana might not even matter if Biden wins Michigan because they can't see Bernie doing well next Tuesday in the next slew of states (Arizona, Florida, etc.).

I actually didn't realize that Arizona, Illinois, and Ohio were voting next week until now. This really is about to be over next Tuesday barring a miracle

that is a rude picture! calling Tulsi a no one

Lol... She was actually on the list below Bernie but I cut her out to make the screenshot display better lol.

 

[bdb13]

If this primary season goes the way it looks like it will - Biden winning, and winning fairly easily - I wonder if there will be a consensus among political scientists as to whether the problems with the Iowa caucus "allowed" Biden to get away with relatively poor showings in Iowa, NH, and Nevada.

Not sure about it - especially given that he took a great deal of heat after the abysmal showing in NH, so I am not sure that could have been worse. But perhaps there is something to it nonetheless.

This may be biased in going more by my personal anecdote, but I think more than anything anxiety towards Sanders as the nominee really set in when he emerged as the frontrunner as far as fear amongst the voters in his ability to defeat Trump (my worry), and fear of his platform from moderate voters, so we had:

Biden has a good debate, Bloomberg again doesn't and doesn't appear to be the party's savior --> Clyburn endorses Biden --> Biden wins South Carolina in what turns out to be a momentous landslide --> Pete and Klobuchar drop out and endorse Biden --> party consolidates around Biden and he has an incredible, overachieving Super Tuesday --> today.

I was planning on voting for Bernie in FL and burying Biden too, but was always uneasy with Bernie as the nominee and Super Tuesday drove home my fears about him and also convinced me that Biden has a very good chance at defeating Trump.

 

[JimEverett]

This may be biased in going more by my personal anecdote, but I think more than anything anxiety towards Sanders as the nominee really set in when he emerged as the frontrunner as far as fear amongst the voters in his ability to defeat Trump (my worry), and fear of his platform from moderate voters, so we had:

Biden has a good debate, Bloomberg again doesn't and doesn't appear to be the party's savior --> Clyburn endorses Biden --> Biden wins South Carolina in what turns out to be a momentous landslide --> Pete and Klobuchar drop out and endorse Biden --> party consolidates around Biden and he has an incredible, overachieving Super Tuesday --> today.

I was planning on voting for Bernie in FL and burying Biden too, but was always uneasy with Bernie as the nominee and Super Tuesday drove home my fears about him and also convinced me that Biden has a very good chance at defeating Trump.

I think you are probably right about the fear surrounding Bernie. And seeing Bloomberg crash and burn at that debate probably sealed it up for Biden regardless of if Iowa played out normally. Maybe Pete could have parlayed a more clear Iowa win into something???? I doubt it, but would be interested to see/hear some political experts discuss the impact, if any, the Iowa debacle had.