The Bernie Sanders Is Probably [Now Not] Going To Be The Nominee Thread (1 Viewer)

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EmBeeFiveOhFour

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We have a running thread about the 2020 Democratic race at large, but 538 is now showing that Bernie Sanders has a nearly 50% chance of carrying a majority of delegates into the Democratic National Convention (with the current runner up being "no one has a majority" at close to 40%). At some point in the near future--maybe as soon as Super Tuesday next week when he wins California--it will be time to acknowledge that Sanders is the probable nominee and there is nothing Biden or Bloomberg or anyone else in the race now can do to stop it. So, what happens then?

I know that the Trump voters will say he's crazy and use that as their excuse for voting for Trump (who they were voting for anyway under any circumstance, let's all be clear and honest about that). But how does everyone else feel about it?
 
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SaintForLife

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Bernie doesn't even know how much all of his proposals will cost, but he claims to know how to pay for it. Huh?

 

JimEverett

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I think this is a small community on this board so what I am about to say is not some subversive plot to sow discord within the Democratic Party :D

I agree with you - Bernie is winning, other candidates are low on money and low on momentum, so Bernie is most certainly the front-runner and looks to be the nominee. But I am wondering what the opposition to him being the nominee will end up doing - both in the short term and further down the line. For example - will there be some sort of organized effort to (apart from just, say, Bloomberg spending his money) to try and keep him from getting the 50%+1.
And long-term will there be an effort on the floor of the convention to do something - like change the rules and allow superdelegates the chance to vote on 1st ballot.

I think the former is likely, the latter very unlikely.
 
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EmBeeFiveOhFour

EmBeeFiveOhFour

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Bernie doesn't even know how much all of his proposals will cost, but he claims to know how to pay for it. Huh?

No one making this critique asked how the Iraq War or the 2017 tax cuts or the defense budget would be paid for, and no efforts have been made by the current administration to curtail spending or debt. But thanks for reading the thread!
 

SaintForLife

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No one making this critique asked how the Iraq War or the 2017 tax cuts or the defense budget would be paid for, and no efforts have been made by the current administration to curtail spending or debt. But thanks for reading the thread!
Is this when you guys would throw out the silly whataboutism?
 
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EmBeeFiveOhFour

EmBeeFiveOhFour

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I think this is a small community on this board so what I am about to say is not some subversive plot to sow discord within the Democratic Party :D

I agree with you - Bernie is winning, other candidates are low on money and low on momentum, so Bernie is most certainly the front-runner and looks to be the nominee. But I am wondering what the opposition to him being the nominee will end up doing - both in the short term and further down the line. For example - will there be some sort of organized effort to (apart from just, say, Bloomberg spending his money) to try and keep him from getting the 50%+1.
And long-term will there be an effort on the floor of the convention to do something - like change the rules and allow superdelegates the chance to vote on 1st ballot.

I think the former is likely, the latter very unlikely.
I think there would absolutely be an effort to stop the nomination at the convention if Sanders enters with only a plurality and not a majority of delegates. We fantasized about a brokered GOP convention in 2016. But I can't see the DNC actually alienating an entire generation of voters and destroying the future of the party when there isn't even a clear alternative. Bloomberg is already crashing and burning. And is a Republican.
 

Slackermod

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What are the actual rules for a plurality, rather than a majority, does anyone know?
 

SystemShock

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We have a running thread about the 2020 Democratic race at large, but 538 is now showing that Bernie Sanders has a nearly 50% chance of carrying a majority of delegates into the Democratic National Convention
Don't do me like this.
 

Beach Friends

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No one making this critique asked how the Iraq War or the 2017 tax cuts or the defense budget would be paid for, and no efforts have been made by the current administration to curtail spending or debt. But thanks for reading the thread!
Well, those are the talking points Bernie has used to avoid answering the question of how intends to pay for his programs. He has gotten away with it so far, but I think voters will eventually want an actual answer.
 

Taurus

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Bernie can get butts out of seats and into the voting booth.
That's all he needs.
Trump barely won in '16 running against a woman who couldn't sell fire to Eskimos.
Bernie'll mop the floor with him, then spend four years signing executive orders because that's the only thing Moscow Mitch can't stop.
The nation will get younger and browner and eventually, if fortune smiles, the GOP will at last be unable to gerrymander, suppress and oppress their way into retaining power. They'll collapse and something worthwhile will rise from the ashes.
Perhaps as early as 2024.
By 2032, I might conceivably be able to consider voting for a Republican.
 

samiam5211

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Bernie is going to get the nomination. There isn't anything they can do that will stop him. The Millennial and Hispanic vote together is more powerful than any single voting block in the country. Using super delegates this time around to take it from Bernie would be the end of the Democratic party.

I'm a fan of Socialism, but Bernie is not going to be able to follow through on his promises because of Congress. Even with Dem majorities he's not going to be able to get a democratic socialist platform passed.

More gridlock, frustration, and radicalization. Just like Putin wants.

Bernie will lose Florida, but win Texas, so it would still be an electoral college gain.
 

Beach Friends

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I am just giving my opinion and not claiming to be able to predict the future better than anyone else. Having said that:

I give Bernie a better shot of going into the convention with a majority of the delegates than I did before Nevada.

However, if he doesn't get that majority, I think the Party will do whatever it takes to screw him. I think the Democratic establishment, including their Wall Street and Defense contractor donors, fears Bernie way more than they do a Trump second term.

I think they have already shown signs they are willing to do what they can to stop Bernie.

I think it's the reason Bloomberg entered the race and it's the reason the DNC changed the rules to allow Bloomberg get into the debates.

I also think that is the reason there was a leak that muh Russia wants Bernie.

The MSM's coverage of Bernie and the primary generally has been has been ridiculous. Bernie wins New Hampshire, but according to those guys, he is in trouble because his percentage of votes went down from when he won 2016. (Nevermind the fact that there are over 9,000 candidates this year). The real story is that some other candidate had a very strong third place showing.

One thing that Bernie has going for him with respect to the media is that Trump has told the public that the MSM is full of crap for the last 4 years.

The other thing he has going is that the media is so blatant it's easy to spot. 'Senator Warren, what did you think when Bernie said a woman couldn't...."

The DNC itself is loaded with corporate and establishment types. They are their to do someone's bidding and it is not Bernie's.

I don't buy the argument that the Democratic party will not play their games because it would ruin the Democratic party. When it comes to Democratic decision making, desperation trumps being prudent.
 

coldseat

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Bernie will win the nomination. I believe that by the time the convention comes around, the party will be united behind him. Everybody on the Democratic side understands defeating Trump is the first objective, and they're not going to squander that when they have a candidate that gets voters to the booths (maybe not as well as Obama did, but at a pretty good clip). They can win the white house with Bernie.

I'm interested as much in the Senate races as the presidential races. If the Dems can flip the senate and kick McConnell out of the speakers chair, then they'll have the opportunity to actually make some substantive changes. Not grate odds of everything falling the democrats way, but you never know, elections produce a lot of surprises.
 

JimEverett

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What are the actual rules for a plurality, rather than a majority, does anyone know?
I don;t know a lot of details but I think this is right:
There is something like 3900 pledged delegates and almost 800 superdelegates. The pledged have to vote for the candidate that won the delegate in the primaries on the first ballot of the nomination. The superdelegates cannot vote on the first ballot.
So, if a candidate enters the convention with a majority of the pledged delegates then that candidate will win. If teh candidate has a plurality of pledged delegates but not a majority then the superdelegates will vote on the second and any other votes they have.

However, presumably, the entire slate of delegates can vote for rules changes at the convention - which would include superdelegates.
 

coldseat

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The party establishment is not going to allow a vote of superdelegates to overturn the popular vote, especially if Bernie holds a substantial lead in delegates, but really under any circumstances. They know that would kill any opportunity for a Democratic to be in the white house, which is I why so many Republicans are giddy about just considering the prospect.
 

zztop

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Anyone see Chris Matthews go on air and compare Bernie's win in Nevada to the Nazis overrunning France? What a great choice of words :confused:
 

The moose

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Are you talking presidential elections? How do you figure Sanders will win Texas?

Well if Bernie gets the larger portion of the Hispanic vote and the youth vote he would win Texas walking away.

You know that 38% of Texas is Hispanic right? 12% black.

And shockingly the median age in Texas is 33. So lots and lots of young people.

With a large voter turnout Texas will be won by Bernie.
 

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