The Bernie Sanders Is Probably [Now Not] Going To Be The Nominee Thread (1 Viewer)

[EmBeeFiveOhFour]

We have a running thread about the 2020 Democratic race at large, but 538 is now showing that Bernie Sanders has a nearly 50% chance of carrying a majority of delegates into the Democratic National Convention (with the current runner up being "no one has a majority" at close to 40%). At some point in the near future--maybe as soon as Super Tuesday next week when he wins California--it will be time to acknowledge that Sanders is the probable nominee and there is nothing Biden or Bloomberg or anyone else in the race now can do to stop it. So, what happens then?

I know that the Trump voters will say he's crazy and use that as their excuse for voting for Trump (who they were voting for anyway under any circumstance, let's all be clear and honest about that). But how does everyone else feel about it?

 

[bdb13]

I just don't see a guy who struggled to even speak and get his points across on stage against other Democrats doing anything but getting dominated by Trump. Donald is a goon and a fraud and will play that narrative again and again.

That's been my biggest worry with Biden, but man, in spite of that and in spite of his campaign having no money to advertise, the voters came out in droves for him.

It's crazy I know, but this is the first time I've felt optimistic and enthusiastic about the odds of defeating Trump.

 

[Heathen]

That's been my biggest worry with Biden, but man, in spite of that and in spite of his campaign having no money to advertise, the voters came out in droves for him.

It's crazy I know, but this is the first time I've felt optimistic and enthusiastic about the odds of defeating Trump.

Agreed, I just hope those numbers galvanize in November

 

[Nebaghead]

I just don't see a guy who struggled to even speak and get his points across on stage against other Democrats doing anything but getting dominated by Trump. Donald is a goon and a fraud and will play that narrative again and again.

Hopefully the Royal Rumble style debates with 8+ people were part of the problem. Once it is down to two people, he should do better. Trump is just good at slinging mud. Biden can zing too and not come off as condescending like Hillary.

I'm concerned about the Bernie Bros. After studying about how bot farms are used to influence the news, I feel that is being used to amplify the negative responses from the Bernie Bros. Most of my friends who support Bernie, have attended rallies and big fans of him will vote for Biden if he wins. They would like Bernie to do it, but anyone is better than Trump in their mind.

 

[coldseat]

If it's Biden, then it's Biden and I'll vote for him, but personally I'm very "meh" about the results last night. It's good there seems to be some voter enthusiasm for him though.

My problem isn't with the man, more so with his campaign and policies. Let's say he wins the presidency, then what? His whole campaign is that he can beat Trump. OK, if he manages that, then what? I just don't see anything transformacional in his policies that's going to change things for the poor and middle class in this country. There isn't really a strong foundation of policies that's focused on improving short and long term outcomes for the majority of people in this country. It just seems like we continue forward with the same set of polices that has brought us to this place, with some minor improvement around the edges.

That to me is a sure recipe to keep seesawing with Republicans in elections. Still, if it stops Trump and McConnell from stream rolling unqualified and staunchly conservative federal judges through the pipeline then I suppose that's worth it. I just personally want more in a president.

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

Same. As Beach Friends pointed out to me in a previous discussion, Bernie has said some pretty out there things. He's far to the left of most of the country and while he's enthusiastic, he's also pushing for some changes that are beyond what I would want.

Frankly, my main goal is to remove the stench of Trump from our common memory and hopefully see him in prison with his entire corrupt clan, but aside from that just a competent and considered administration who would like to govern would suffice. Someone who has a modicum of respect for those with different opinions, some measure of empathy and enough self restraint to not drool on the jock of every two-bit dictator he crosses paths with would be a bonus.

Trump is a con man and an idiot. There are very few people on the planet less well suited to be POTUS than Trump. Trump is also easily influenced by those who he seeks influence or favors from so at least on some level, Trump is being handled by those with real money and some ties to reality. Bernie really isn't.

While obviously most Dems are here you are - wanting to calm the waters - I feel a massive course correction is decades late (it should have happened post-Nixon with Carter)
What I wish the calm water types would realize is that only a massive leftward lurch will get us to the center where people claim they want to be
There is no possible way Bernie could come in and effect anywhere close to the change that he calls for - but he most certainly would agitate for some left of center movement
There’s nothing that tells me Joe will do any better than Ibama’s ultimately right if center results

 

[JimEverett]

Biden will win Missouri and Mississippi. Sanders will win Idaho and Washington (probably, though that could change). The fight next week will be in Michigan. If Sanders wins Michigan, where he has been up - but probably trails now - then the narrative will shift from "Its Biden's now" to "Sanders can still win" or something like that.

 

[EmBeeFiveOhFour]

I went ahead and changed the thread title to acknowledge the obvious.

It's not shocking that the rest of the field united behind one candidate but I really do think Biden is the poorest choice of all of them. Hunter Biden will become the new "but her e-mails" for the rest of 2020 until Trump uses his DOJ to announce some kind of silly indictments for something around October.

 

[Heathen]

If it's Biden, then it's Biden and I'll vote for him, but personally I'm very "meh" about the results last night. It's good there seems to be some voter enthusiasm for him though.

My problem isn't with the man, more so with his campaign and policies. Let's say he wins the presidency, then what? His whole campaign is that he can beat Trump. OK, if he manages that, then what? I just don't see anything transformacional in his policies that's going to change things for the poor and middle class in this country. There isn't really and strong foundation of policies that's focused on improving short and long term outcomes for the majority of people in this country. It just seems like we continue forward with the same set of polices that has brought us to this place, with some minor improvement around the edges.

That to me is a sure recipe to keep seesawing with Republicans in elections. Still, if it stops Trump and McConnell from stream rolling unqualified and staunchly conservative federal judges through the pipeline then I suppose that's worth it. I just personally want more in a president.

Yep, by all indicatiions he is running on just getting Trump out. For many that's good enough, but also many know that Trumps presidency wasn't the start of many of the serious problems we have in this country. I have little to no faith a Biden presidency would address those concerns.

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

Agreed, I just hope those numbers galvanize in November

Yup, this is the big ?

 

[Beach Friends]

I heard in passing that turnout among young voters was really low. Not surprising really.

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

Yep, by all indicatiions he is running on just getting Trump out. For many that's good enough, but also many know that Trumps presidency wasn't the start of many of the serious problems we have in this country. I have little to no faith a Biden presidency would address those concerns.

The age is prohibitive but Warren would been an great running mate
If Kamala was a bit more left, she would be next, but I think Julian Castro checks a lot of the boxes Biden needs

 

[dtc]

While obviously most Dems are here you are - wanting to calm the waters - I feel a massive course correction is decades late (it should have happened post-Nixon with Carter)
What I wish the calm water types would realize is that only a massive leftward lurch will get us to the center where people claim they want to be
There is no possible way Bernie could come in and effect anywhere close to the change that he calls for - but he most certainly would agitate for some left of center movement
There’s nothing that tells me Joe will do any better than Ibama’s ultimately right if center results

The trajectory we were on with Obama was fine. The economy was growing. The deficit was under control. We were not out acting like buffoons on the world stage. Obamacare was a major start in the right direction. Consumer protections were beginning and there was stability without orange-man hysteria.

If Obama had been white with a name like Joe I suspect the racist undertones from the right would have been absent and we'd be on a far better course today.

There is no need for a drastic lurch after Obama, but there will be after Trump. That's the fault of racism, stupidity, laziness and Hillary as put forth by the DNC.

 

[Heathen]

I heard in passing that turnout among young voters was really low. Not surprising really.

Yeah, i heard it was around 13%.

The blame falls squarely on their shoulders.

But I also think there's an element of learned helplessness from a country where many people feel like their vote doesn't have as great an impact as it did before.

 

[Farb]

What is the average for the young vote turn out? Seems like this about average, although I think '18 were really high so maybe that was a one off.

 

[zztop]

maybe it has something to do with wait times. When some people were in line for 7 hours, I wonder how many went "f this I'm leaving"

 

[JimEverett]

Not trying to be insensitive when I say this - but could coronavirus fear end up helping Sanders? Seems like a lot of people are freaking out over this virus and I am thinking a small but substantial number will be hesitant to go out in public to vote. Sanders seems to have more of the energetic supporters than Biden and therefore more likely to turn out ? ? ? ? ? ?

I think its certainly a possibility to look at in Michigan and Washington.

 

[Nebaghead]

Not trying to be insensitive when I say this - but could coronavirus fear end up helping Sanders? Seems like a lot of people are freaking out over this virus and I am thinking a small but substantial number will be hesitant to go out in public to vote. Sanders seems to have more of the energetic supporters than Biden and therefore more likely to turn out ? ? ? ? ? ?

I think its certainly a possibility to look at in Michigan and Washington.

If I'm not mistaken, Washington is mail in ballots. Not sure if that is the same for Primaries though. Don't think it makes that much of a difference either way. Primaries have low turnout. People who are super fearful probably wouldn't have voted anyway.

 

[bdb13]

Former Vice President Joe Biden is heading into Michigan’s Democratic presidential primary on Tuesday with a 24-point lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), according to a new poll.

Biden has 51 percent support in Michigan, according to the Detroit Free Press survey released on Monday, compared to 27 percent for Sanders.

Biden leads Sanders by 24 points in Michigan: poll

Former Vice President Joe Biden is heading into Michigan’s Democratic presidential primary on Tuesday with a 24-point lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), according to a new poll.

thehill.com