The Bernie Sanders Is Probably [Now Not] Going To Be The Nominee Thread (1 Viewer)

[EmBeeFiveOhFour]

We have a running thread about the 2020 Democratic race at large, but 538 is now showing that Bernie Sanders has a nearly 50% chance of carrying a majority of delegates into the Democratic National Convention (with the current runner up being "no one has a majority" at close to 40%). At some point in the near future--maybe as soon as Super Tuesday next week when he wins California--it will be time to acknowledge that Sanders is the probable nominee and there is nothing Biden or Bloomberg or anyone else in the race now can do to stop it. So, what happens then?

I know that the Trump voters will say he's crazy and use that as their excuse for voting for Trump (who they were voting for anyway under any circumstance, let's all be clear and honest about that). But how does everyone else feel about it?

 

[Taurus]

Since I'm whiter than sour cream, can someone fill me in on why black people just will not vote for Bernie? Is it the accent? His tie?

This is twice in a row now that his campaign has cratered among minorities.

 

[JimEverett]

Since I'm whiter than sour cream, can someone fill me in on why black people just will not vote for Bernie? Is it the accent? His tie?

This is twice in a row now that his campaign has cratered among minorities.

I will give my 2 cents.

Hillary worked for decades building relationships with balcks. Her husband did too, but I think Hilary did it even more. She showed up at a lot of places, she listend to a lot of people, she talked with a lot of people, and she helped a lot. Its hard to counter decades of activism like she had.

I think Joe is similar, although I don;t think his activity was near the level of Hilary's. But it was more than Sanders. I don;t think Sanders has spent the time travelinng to communities, particularly southern ones, and interacting - except, perhaps, during the campaign. In part, because Sanders really is not or was not, a Democrat.

I don;t think that fully explains it - I think there is a lot more to it - but it plays a big role.

 

[coldseat]

Since I'm whiter than sour cream, can someone fill me in on why black people just will not vote for Bernie? Is it the accent? His tie?

This is twice in a row now that his campaign has cratered among minorities.

I kind of had the same question, so I asked one of my friends on Facebook and a friend of his responded with what I thought was a pretty good answers.

Facebook Friend:

President Obama. It's not even the fact that many of us like him all that much but many people, black folk or not, feel like he could take us back to that time, at least nostalgically. Frankly he was only effective as a VP because President Obama carried him. When Obama was a Senator running for president he ran into the same challenge, at first anyway. The Clintons were beloved so many sided with Hillary over him. Many of us in the Black Community felt we were betraying the Clinton's at first... until we understood better. Biden's record is nothing to be proud of and his being the candidate is a mistake, Jill Biden is a better more qualified candidate. Elizabeth Warren is really who should have won this nomination. She really was the smartest person in those rooms and understood how to reach out to communities of color, black women in particular and do the work. its unfortunate we are in this place with Biden but when people are uncertain of the future, regardless of race they cling to what they know worked for them in the past. President Obama represents that.... and Biden is his second-hands smoke.

I also thought this article on CNN was a really good take on it as well. Long read, but worth it.

So what happened to the radical black tradition?
Why don't more people  today  hear about this radical tradition in the black community? It's been obscured by a constant focus on "pragmatic" black voters in the Democratic primaries.

Russell, the spokesman for the Black Socialists in America, cites another reason: The grim historical lessons many blacks draw from any attempts at radical political change.

Many of the black community's most radical leaders were either assassinated or their organizations destroyed by the FBI's  counter-intelligence program, he says.  The rise of conservativism in the years following the civil rights movement also cooled the revolutionary fervor in the black community, he says.

"The arresting and jailing and murder of black organizers and leaders was seen as a lesson not to go that path again," Russell says.
History makes another lesson clear for many black voters: Lasting radical change often comes disguised in a series of smaller steps, another historian says.

"Even when slavery was abolished, it was incremental -- it began with the Emancipation Proclamation, and led up to the 13th  Amendment," says Ravi Perry, chair of the political science department at Howard University in Washington. "Same thing with civil rights. We didn't just have one huge sweeping bill that changed everything. First we focused on public transportation, then voting rights, then fair housing. There were incremental steps."

Radicalism doesn't mean much if you lose
Black voters flocking to Biden also realize something else, Perry says:
"You can't do anything until you win first. Many who did not vote in 2016 or stayed home or voted for (Green Party nominee)  Jill Stein,  I think many of them learned their lessons."

Sanders must address these challenges  if he is going to fare better with black voters in Michigan, Mississippi and the four other states holding primaries or caucuses Tuesday.

One way to describe the roadblock he faces in the black community is to recount an anecdote from the life of Carmichael, the civil rights activist who despised capitalism.

Carmichael was so committed to radical change that he'd answer each phone call with the same greeting: "Ready for the revolution." He was literally still talking about revolution on his death bed, at 57 from prostate cancer.

Sanders' weakness with African American voters does not mean the black community isn't ready for a revolution in the Trump era. But blacks' collective attitude in 2020 may best be described as this:

First, we need someone to beat Trump. Then we'll talk about the revolution.

Socialism appeals to many black voters. But that's not helping Bernie. Here's why | CNN

Everyone is talking about the rise of the pragmatic black voters who revived Joe Biden’s presidential campaig.But there is a long and vibrant tradition of socialism in the black community. So why hasn’t Bernie Sanders tapped into it? It’s complicated.

www.cnn.com

 

[bdb13]

I kind of had the same question, so I asked one of my friends on Facebook and a friend of his responded with what I thought was a pretty good answers.

Facebook Friend:


I also thought this article on CNN was a really good take on it as well. Long read, but worth it.

Socialism appeals to many black voters. But that's not helping Bernie. Here's why | CNN

Everyone is talking about the rise of the pragmatic black voters who revived Joe Biden’s presidential campaig.But there is a long and vibrant tradition of socialism in the black community. So why hasn’t Bernie Sanders tapped into it? It’s complicated.

www.cnn.com

Yeah, I think Biden is viewed as Obama's torchbearer of sorts, and obviously Obama is by-and-large beloved by the black community. He sort of has Obama's tacit endorsement without actually having it.

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

Since I'm whiter than sour cream, can someone fill me in on why black people just will not vote for Bernie? Is it the accent? His tie?

This is twice in a row now that his campaign has cratered among minorities.

There a few pretty good think pieces floating around addressing this - some of the ideas
- A.A. voters know how the game is played bc they’re often the first victims of the game - so not many progressives bc that’s a theoretical/hopeful position and they know better
- black leaders who’ve rose to any sort or prominence, tend to be rather centrist for crossover appeal (Shirley Chilsolm is a good story, but there is quite the ceiling for a liberal A.A. pol)
- they’re pretty good at cost benefit analysis and see very clearly what tends to happen to people (black or white) who push ‘radical’ left positions

 

[Heathen]

Since I'm whiter than sour cream, can someone fill me in on why black people just will not vote for Bernie? Is it the accent? His tie?

Younger black voters seem to prefer Sanders over Biden.

Maybe it's just an age thing, like it seems to be for whites?

 

[Beach Friends]

I think the Dems are going to give Bernie a lot of encouragement to drop out before the upcoming debate. There is no way they want to risk Biden having that much air time.

 

[not2rich]

I think the Dems are going to give Bernie a lot of encouragement to drop out before the upcoming debate. There is no way they want to risk Biden having that much air time.

True. Maybe he'll get asked a question about the nuclear triad and respond with a nonsensical word salad. That would kill any hope for Biden to get elected for sure.

 

[Beach Friends]

True. Maybe he'll get asked a question about the nuclear triad and respond with a nonsensical word salad. That would kill any hope for Biden to get elected for sure.

He's just as likely to do something really crazy and start referring to himself as Obiden, forget what office he is running for or bail out of his sentence by telling the moderators that they, "know the thing."

 

[not2rich]

He's just as likely to do something really crazy and start referring to himself as Obiden, forget what office he is running for or bail out of his sentence by telling the moderators that they, "know the thing."

Exactly.
He might have a "covfefe" moment.
Or claim that he can eliminate the Federal debt in 8 years.
Or assure us his penis size is just fine.
Or wrongly say that a hurricane in the gulf threatens Arkansas.
Or retweet a meme comparing him to Nero as if it were a compliment.
The possibilities are endless...

 

[bdb13]

Exactly.
He might have a "covfefe" moment.
Or claim that he can eliminate the Federal debt in 8 years.
Or assure us his penis size is just fine.
Or wrongly say that a hurricane in the gulf threatens Arkansas.
Or retweet a meme comparing him to Nero as if it were a compliment.
The possibilities are endless...

That's my thinking as well, more or less.

And expectations are so low for Biden in a debate at this point that if he struggles he's playing to par and if he actually does decent it'll be a win.

 

[Nebaghead]

Exactly.
He might have a "covfefe" moment.
Or claim that he can eliminate the Federal debt in 8 years.
Or assure us his penis size is just fine.
Or wrongly say that a hurricane in the gulf threatens Arkansas.
Or retweet a meme comparing him to Nero as if it were a compliment.
The possibilities are endless...

Or talk about his friend, the CEO of Apple, Tim Apple.
Remember that guy, he does great things with apples.

 

[Beach Friends]

Exactly.
He might have a "covfefe" moment.
Or claim that he can eliminate the Federal debt in 8 years.
Or assure us his penis size is just fine.
Or wrongly say that a hurricane in the gulf threatens Arkansas.
Or retweet a meme comparing him to Nero as if it were a compliment.
The possibilities are endless...

Your whataboutisms are noted. I guess Biden is the horse you will ride in November.

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

Your whataboutisms are noted. I guess Biden is the horse you will ride in November.

That point is - and it’s a painfully obvious point - is that there is nothing ZERO that you can say about any potential Biden gaffe/mistake that you couldn’t say about Trump x20
Contextually there is no reason for you to weigh in on any Dem issues if you’re giving your boy a pass

 

[Dadsdream]

That point is - and it’s a painfully obvious point - is that there is nothing ZERO that you can say about any potential Biden gaffe/mistake that you couldn’t say about Trump x20
Contextually there is no reason for you to weigh in on any Dem issues if you’re giving your boy a pass

Conversely, when it comes to influence peddling and graft, there is no reason for you to weigh in on any Rep issues if you're giving your boy a pass.

 

[MT15]

It’s hilarious actually. Pretending they care about some gaffes, or rather pretending that these little things matter.

Oh and there’s no grifting done by Biden. Zero, none. Just lies and smears out of desperation. It’s obviously transparent.

Plus, they absolutely don’t care about grifting in a President. Hilarious.

 

[Dadsdream]

It’s hilarious actually. Pretending they care about some gaffes, or rather pretending that these little things matter.

Oh and there’s no grifting done by Biden. Zero, none. Just lies and smears out of desperation. It’s obviously transparent.

Plus, they absolutely don’t care about grifting in a President. Hilarious.

It's hilarious actually. Pretending they care about some exaggerations, or rather pretending that these little things matter.

Oh, and there's no Russia Collusion or Ukraine Coercion done by Trump. Zero, None. Just lies and smears out of desperation. It's obviously transparent.

Plus, they absolutely don't care about dementia in a President. Hilarious.

>SIGH<.

Yes, it's going to be a long road to November.

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

Conversely, when it comes to influence peddling and graft, there is no reason for you to weigh in on any Rep issues if you're giving your boy a pass.

You know those videos where someone tries to kick another but winds up falling on their ***?