Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/11/ukraine-trial-russian-soldier-custody-war-crime/

"Ukraine announces first war crime trial of Russian soldier in custody

A woman mourns by her son's grave at a cemetery in Bucha, Ukraine, last month. (Zohra Bensemra/Reuters)

Ukraine’s prosecutor general said Wednesday that the country would try a 21-year-old Russian soldier who is in custody, adding that he would be the first Russian service member to stand trial there on a war crimes charge in the 11-week conflict.

The prosecutor’s statement accused Vadim Shishimarin of firing several shots with a Kalashnikov rifle from a car, killing an unarmed 62-year-old resident in a village in the Sumy region of northeastern Ukraine on Feb. 28. It said the victim was pushing a bike by the side of a road before he was shot in the head and “died on the spot a few dozen meters from his home.”

 

[zztop]

interesting article on how quickly sentiments change

EXPLAINER: Why Finland, Sweden joining NATO will be big deal

Finland appears on the cusp of joining NATO. Sweden could follow suit. By year's end, they could stand among the alliance's ranks.

apnews.com

Support in Finland for NATO membership has hovered around 20-30% for years. It now stands at over 70%.

(also)

Defiant U.S. Senator Rand Paul stymies effort to pass $40 billion Ukraine aid bill

The top Democrat and Republican in the U.S. Senate joined forces in a rare moment of unity on Thursday in an attempt to pass $40 billion in aid for Ukraine, only to be stymied by a single Republican lawmaker: Senator Rand Paul.

www.reuters.com

 

[DaveXA]

interesting article on how quickly sentiments change

EXPLAINER: Why Finland, Sweden joining NATO will be big deal

Finland appears on the cusp of joining NATO. Sweden could follow suit. By year's end, they could stand among the alliance's ranks.

apnews.com

Support in Finland for NATO membership has hovered around 20-30% for years. It now stands at over 70%.

(also)

Defiant U.S. Senator Rand Paul stymies effort to pass $40 billion Ukraine aid bill

The top Democrat and Republican in the U.S. Senate joined forces in a rare moment of unity on Thursday in an attempt to pass $40 billion in aid for Ukraine, only to be stymied by a single Republican lawmaker: Senator Rand Paul.

www.reuters.com

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Rand Paul is a grade A doosh. I hate him as much as I hate Trump.

 

[UriUT]

I'm really confused by Macron and Scholz's position here. How can they support and push ukraine to accept peace to save face for Putin? On top of that they arent even calling for complete withdrawal to the Feb 24th borders at the very least?

 

[Taurus]

interesting article on how quickly sentiments change

EXPLAINER: Why Finland, Sweden joining NATO will be big deal

Finland appears on the cusp of joining NATO. Sweden could follow suit. By year's end, they could stand among the alliance's ranks.

apnews.com

Support in Finland for NATO membership has hovered around 20-30% for years. It now stands at over 70%.

(also)

Defiant U.S. Senator Rand Paul stymies effort to pass $40 billion Ukraine aid bill

The top Democrat and Republican in the U.S. Senate joined forces in a rare moment of unity on Thursday in an attempt to pass $40 billion in aid for Ukraine, only to be stymied by a single Republican lawmaker: Senator Rand Paul.

www.reuters.com

So it's a pointless, asinine delay, not a block.

Still, why don't Dem Senators do things like this when they're the minority?

 

[DaveXA]

So it's a pointless, asinine delay, not a block.

Still, why don't Dem Senators do things like this when they're the minority?

Because when they do it, the criticism gets piled on. But when a Republican does it, he's viewed as being principled.

 

[Taurus]

Because when they do it, the criticism gets piled on. But when a Republican does it, he's viewed as being principled.

They should try it sometime. Maybe they'd start to shake the 'spineless jellyfish' image.

 

[wardorican]

I'm really confused by Macron and Scholz's position here. How can they support and push ukraine to accept peace to save face for Putin? On top of that they arent even calling for complete withdrawal to the Feb 24th borders at the very least?

Same. I'd like to find his full statement, I'm mostly just seeing reactions to it.

Macron suggested Ukraine give up some of its sovereignty to allow Putin to save face, says Zelensky

French President Emanuel Macron suggested Ukraine should compromise on its sovereignty in order to allow Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to save face, President Volodymyr Zelensky, said in an interview with Italian TV Station Rai 1 on May 13.

news.yahoo.com

 

[UriUT]

Same. I'd like to find his full statement, I'm mostly just seeing reactions to it.

Macron suggested Ukraine give up some of its sovereignty to allow Putin to save face, says Zelensky

French President Emanuel Macron suggested Ukraine should compromise on its sovereignty in order to allow Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to save face, President Volodymyr Zelensky, said in an interview with Italian TV Station Rai 1 on May 13.

news.yahoo.com

This is the only thing I've seen on it from Macron. It's a weak response that really doesn't deny the allegations. And to be clear it is zelensky who said that Macron and Scholz pushed for this. If its a misunderstanding, its quite damaging to alienate the 2 most powerful EU countries. If it's true, then I am even more confused as to why these two keep taking this stance. While I understand that the Versailles treaty point is valid, we are talking about Putin here. He is closer to Hitler than to the kaiser/German Republic. He is actively undermining the EU. From brexit to the failed Catalonia referendum. Does scholz not see that his party lost votes recently and that the majority of Germans support Ukraine? Their intents baffles me.

 

[SamAndreas]

This is interesting. A flash from the past.

 

[DaveXA]

This is interesting. A flash from the past.

Haha, nice find. I'm so disappointed McCain is no longer with us today. I'm convinced he'd beat the shirt out of Paul if he could. But he'd be too much of a gentleman to do that. But he'd dismantle Paul in a debate. My dislike for Paul truly started when he'd completely disrespect people who would appear before the Senate for hearings on whatever. He berated the sheet out of Fauci. Cringy as fork. His constituents need to get rid of him. But...I don't see it happening.

 

[CoolBrees]

John McCain would have killed someone on 1/6. Don’t know who or from which group but that dude would have gone full flashback.

This Russia stuff, seeing R’s applaud Putin; it would have killed him.

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

Retired Russian Military Officer tells his fellow Russians the truth on Russian Television!
*

On a Russian Talk Show, Retired Colonel Stuns Colleagues by Saying Invasion Isn't Going Well

A military analyst on one of Russian state television’s most popular networks left his fellow panelists in stunned silence Monday when he said that the conflict in Ukraine was deteriorating for Russia, giving the kind of honest assessment that is virtually banished from the official airwaves...

www.yahoo.com

 

[zztop]

honestly surprised by this. Good news, they got evacuated out of there...bad news, it is apparently into Russian held territory

The Ukrainian authorities declare an end to the combat mission in Mariupol after weeks of Russian siege. (Published 2022)

More than 250 fighters were evacuated from the besieged Azovstal complex after holding out and sheltering civilians for weeks under near-constant Russian bombardment.

www.nytimes.com

Ukrainian officials said that evacuations from the Azovstal steel factory had begun. The military said that 264 service members, 53 of them “seriously injured,” had been taken by bus to areas controlled by Russian forces

 

[DaveXA]

honestly surprised by this. Good news, they got evacuated out of there...bad news, it is apparently into Russian held territory

The Ukrainian authorities declare an end to the combat mission in Mariupol after weeks of Russian siege. (Published 2022)

More than 250 fighters were evacuated from the besieged Azovstal complex after holding out and sheltering civilians for weeks under near-constant Russian bombardment.

www.nytimes.com

Ukrainian officials said that evacuations from the Azovstal steel factory had begun. The military said that 264 service members, 53 of them “seriously injured,” had been taken by bus to areas controlled by Russian forces

Supposedly the 2 sides have agreed to a prisoner swap, so hopefully they can get them all back.

 

[MT15]

Supposedly the 2 sides have agreed to a prisoner swap, so hopefully they can get them all back.

Seeing now that Russia is not going to do that, is accusing them of being ”terrorists” and committing “war crimes”. Might know Russia would back out.

 

[MT15]

Retired Russian Military Officer tells his fellow Russians the truth on Russian Television!
*

On a Russian Talk Show, Retired Colonel Stuns Colleagues by Saying Invasion Isn't Going Well

A military analyst on one of Russian state television’s most popular networks left his fellow panelists in stunned silence Monday when he said that the conflict in Ukraine was deteriorating for Russia, giving the kind of honest assessment that is virtually banished from the official airwaves...

www.yahoo.com

This is especially interesting. He’s not some rogue person.

 

[DaveXA]

Seeing now that Russia is not going to do that, is accusing them of being ”terrorists” and committing “war crimes”. Might know Russia would back out.

Yeah, most likely retaliation for Ukraine putting their soldier on trial. He apparently pleaded guilty. I guess Russia isn't interested in accountability.