Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[DaveXA]

Please explain what's incorrect about that article and why FAIR is a propaganda rag? Be specific.

The article that you are trying to ignore answered your question. It's not my fault that you think that anything that isn't American propaganda is Russian Propaganda. You guys are so engrained to claim everything you don't believe is Russian propaganda that you ignore anything that goes against your world view.

It actually did not answer my question because the premise is false. And besides, I asked you...not some article. Ukraine elected their own leaders and there is no proxy. The weapons and support we sent Ukraine is at their request. They've been asking NATO and the EU for assistance for a while now. Those who have joined NATO have done so willingly. They're sovereign nations and have a right to self-determination. If they want or need help from NATO, there's nothing Russia can do about it other than invade them and install their own puppets like they have a long history of doing. The whole Nazi in the Ukranian government narrative is a fabrication to justify Russia invading Ukraine. It's lunacy.

If you want to believe the loons, that's your prerogative. Just don't think rational thinking people are going to buy what Russia and Putin are selling.

 

[MT15]

Well, lets take Tillman's case. Friendly fire isn't a crime but it's not as glamorous as a heroic death so they lied and went with the heroic death because Tillman had been used to promote military service. However, I agree that it isn't exactly the same thing but it's down the same avenue. Both were propaganda or "illusions" aimed at populations embroiled in war.

The crime I was referring to is the suspicion that Tillman was targeted, that it wasn’t an accident.

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

The crime I was referring to is the suspicion that Tillman was targeted, that it wasn’t an accident.

Well I don't know about you but I never believed that nor was it the reason they went with a heroic death from what I understand.

 

[MT15]

JDonk - I hadn’t considered the angle you raised but I have to admit it makes a lot of sense. It’s clear Putin cares nothing about the Russian-speaking population.

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

“Nearly every corner in Bucha is now a crime scene, and it felt like death was everywhere,” said Richard Weir, crisis and conflict researcher at Human Rights Watch. “The evidence indicates that Russian forces occupying Bucha showed contempt and disregard for civilian life and the most fundamental principles of the laws of war.”

https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/21/ukraine-russian-forces-trail-death-bucha

Unbelievable.

 

[J-DONK]

Putin may soon officially declare war on Ukraine, US and Western officials say | CNN

Russian President Vladimir Putin could formally declare war on Ukraine as soon as May 9, a move that would enable the full mobilization of Russia’s reserve forces as invasion efforts continue to falter, US and Western officials believe.

www.cnn.com

Lots of rumors flying around the internet of mass mobilization following May 9th in Russia.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

What does this guy even have in reserve?

 

[MT15]

Hoping this is accurate:

 

[zztop]

What does this guy even have in reserve?

Some untrained cannon fodder. although I wonder how much he'll start supplementing more with foreign volunteers. I read a article a few weeks back about long lines at some Russian embassies in Africa. When interviewed many said they didn't want to fight but it was more about a potential opportunity at having a better life. Made me sad to think enlisting in a foreign war is thought of as a better alternative than what they currently have

meanwhile:

Nearly 25 million tonnes of grain stuck in Ukraine, says UN food agency

Nearly 25 million tonnes of grains are stuck in Ukraine and unable to leave the country due to infrastructure challenges and blocked Black Sea ports including Mariupol, a U.N. food agency official said on Friday.

www.reuters.com

Ukraine had been the world's fourth largest exporter of maize (corn) in the 2020/21 season and the number six wheat exporter, according to International Grains Council data.

 

[UriUT]

Some untrained cannon fodder. although I wonder how much he'll start supplementing more with foreign volunteers. I read a article a few weeks back about long lines at some Russian embassies in Africa. When interviewed many said they didn't want to fight but it was more about a potential opportunity at having a better life. Made me sad to think enlisting in a foreign war is thought of as a better alternative than what they currently have

meanwhile:

Nearly 25 million tonnes of grain stuck in Ukraine, says UN food agency

Nearly 25 million tonnes of grains are stuck in Ukraine and unable to leave the country due to infrastructure challenges and blocked Black Sea ports including Mariupol, a U.N. food agency official said on Friday.

www.reuters.com

Ukraine had been the world's fourth largest exporter of maize (corn) in the 2020/21 season and the number six wheat exporter, according to International Grains Council data.

Unconfirmed of course. It’s getting apparently clear that Russia’s eastern offensive has fizzled. Without more troops, they risk losing completely once the Ukrainians’ real offensive begin. And training new conscripts isn’t like switching a switch on and off. To compound their already mounting problems, the conscripts they have on the field today will have their term end soon. Along with the experience they earned in the war. I’m more than willing to bet the new conscripts will again come from the ethnic minorities. Drafting ethnic Russians won’t be tolerated well.

Back a month ago, I wouldn’t have imagined crimea would be in play. Now it’s a possibly. Zelensky even changed his stance and vows all territory including crimea. Putin the great strategist.

 

[MT15]

Seems to be correct.

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

As Ukraine regains territory near Kharkiv, Russia prepares for a more expansive war

Ukraine announced on Tuesday that Russia is withdrawing some troops from the region around Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city and a crucial base for the Ukrainian military. The announcement comes after Ukrainian soldiers recently recaptured towns and as top U.S. intelligence officials told...

www.pbs.org

"Ukraine announced on Tuesday that Russia is withdrawing some troops from the region around Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city and a crucial base for the Ukrainian military. The announcement comes after Ukrainian soldiers recently recaptured towns and as top U.S. intelligence officials told senators that President Putin was aiming for a longer, wider war. Nick Schifrin reports."

 

[MT15]

 

[UriUT]

Potential consequences of Russia losing that territory.

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

I wouldn't pretend to know what Putin's thinking but I wouldn't count on his losses on the battlefield equalling a loss of effort at this point no matter how ugly those efforts might become.

Plan for the worst and hope for the best.

 

[UriUT]

And to refute any case that the US staged a coup in Ukraine, here is a statement from a Ukrainian official discussing the 2004 Orange Revolution. No mention of any us official planning anything. He, though was educated in the West and believes in fair elections.

We, Ukrainian diplomats, strongly protest against the shameful war with our own people, which turned into the 2004 presidential election. Today, when our relatives and friends are on Independence Square, we cannot remain silent.

Guided by conscience, professional honor and oath to faithfully serve the state of Ukraine, we join the voice of the Ukrainian people, which protests against the violation of the right of citizens to elect a president in a democratic way.

Despite pressure, intimidation and mass deception, the Ukrainian people have shown their will. His choice does not suit those representatives of Ukraine's political elite who have talked for years about its European and democratic orientation, but at the crucial moment showed that Europe and democracy are empty words for them. The people of Ukraine, only a small part of whom is freezing today on Independence Square in Kyiv, have proved that they deserve a different government.

We are convinced that our silence today will result in a further decline in the authority of the state, and thus the transformation of the diplomatic service into an instrument of service to power, the legitimacy of which has already been called into question by the world community. This will finally erase the international reputation of our country, turn away from it the democratic nations of the world. We cannot silently watch when the future of Ukraine, the future of our children, is buried in the ground.

We call on the Ukrainian diplomatic corps to raise its voice in defense of what we all believe in - an independent, democratic, honest Ukraine. We, Ukrainian citizens, demand that the election results reflect the true will of the people as the only source of power in Ukraine.
We believe that other members of the diplomatic service will join this statement.

 

[UriUT]

read an article how chechen soldiers were shooting civilians and even killing wounded Russian soldiers

From what I’ve read of them and the Wagner groups, their brutality is isis level. Ironically, this war also exposed these tik tok idiots as well. From live streaming a Chechen own death to another dancing back and forth while firing an ak47 in each hand in live combat supposedly. They are ridiculous.

 

[SamAndreas]

Some untrained cannon fodder. although I wonder how much he'll start supplementing more with foreign volunteers. I read a article a few weeks back about long lines at some Russian embassies in Africa. When interviewed many said they didn't want to fight but it was more about a potential opportunity at having a better life. Made me sad to think enlisting in a foreign war is thought of as a better alternative than what they currently have

meanwhile:

Nearly 25 million tonnes of grain stuck in Ukraine, says UN food agency

Nearly 25 million tonnes of grains are stuck in Ukraine and unable to leave the country due to infrastructure challenges and blocked Black Sea ports including Mariupol, a U.N. food agency official said on Friday.

www.reuters.com

Ukraine had been the world's fourth largest exporter of maize (corn) in the 2020/21 season and the number six wheat exporter, according to International Grains Council data.

I was in the valley riding the Amtrak train at the end of last week. What I saw was the two or three freight trains on every siding as my train traveled past. All in all I saw 30 to 40 freight trains on a stretch of track that usually would have only three or four trains on it.

Most of those trains were long ones made up of tanker cars carrying oil to California's refineries, and grain cars carrying grain to a sea port for transshipment overseas. All sorts of grain, and all sorts of food products needed to feed the world.

We are the single worlds largest exporter of corn, double that of Ukraine. And we're the second largest exporter of wheat, second only after Russia.

We are moving our product to shipping points on the coast, more back to back movement of it than I've ever seen before.