Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (2 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[SamAndreas]

This is his press conference after the NATO meeting in Spain:

 

[zztop]

we only get bits and pieces of just how bad things are

'Hell on earth': Ukrainian soldiers describe eastern front

Cities burned to the ground and colleagues with severed limbs. Bombardments so relentless the only option is to lie in a trench, wait and pray.

apnews.com

 

[zztop]

NATO’s 30 members have signed off on the accession protocols for Finland and Sweden.

The applications for the Nordic countries will now be sent to the parliaments of each member state for approval. It could take up to a year before Finland’s and Sweden’s membership bids are ratified.

 

[MT15]

I just saw where this picture has been debunked. It was picked up by several British papers and the NY Post, so I should have known - that’s on me. The NY Post is just straight up trash. He’s a retired Russian Army soldier, but not a general, and hasn’t been sent to Ukraine.

Funny, but totally made up.

 

[zztop]

In a shocking twist, Rand Paul is not on the list

The 18 House Republicans who voted against a resolution to support Finland, Sweden joining NATO

More than a dozen House Republicans voted against a resolution on Monday that expressed support for Finland and Sweden joining NATO. The House passed the measure, which had bipartisan sponsorship, …

thehill.com

 

[DaveXA]

In a shocking twist, Rand Paul is not on the list

The 18 House Republicans who voted against a resolution to support Finland, Sweden joining NATO

More than a dozen House Republicans voted against a resolution on Monday that expressed support for Finland and Sweden joining NATO. The House passed the measure, which had bipartisan sponsorship, …

thehill.com

Yeah, Paul not being on there is actually shocking to me. He's usually the one leading the charge on stuff like this.

 

[UriUT]

That's the house vote. I may have missed the senate vote but I would expect him to be on that list if its coming.

 

[zztop]

That's the house vote. I may have missed the senate vote but I would expect him to be on that list if its coming.

thats what I get for posting early in the morning before my brain is fully awake hah
I read that list 3 times and all I could think of was "what... no Rand Paul?"

 

[MT15]

Good thread about the current state of the war in Ukraine:

 

[MT15]

 

[UriUT]

There are lots to be cautiously optimistic for Ukraine. And I'm particularly worried that we in the west will lose interest. Though the German populace overwhelmingly support Ukraine their leadership hasnt been stellar. I worry that they can torpedo the whole sanctions as what Hungary has already done. Ukraine needs time and if this southern offensive is successful, as it appears promising with news that 2k russians are asking for a green corridor, we may be talking Crimea and the whole of eastern Ukraine soon.

Russia is isolated geopolitically. China and india buying their oil isn't a sign of allies. They are vultures feeding on a corpse. And its silly for Putin to say that they will fill the technology gap left by the sanctions. I really dont see how much longer Russia can sustain this war. This appears to be one where they know that all is lost. If they are going down they will inflict as much pain as possible to the one that humiliated them.

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

There are lots to be cautiously optimistic for Ukraine. And I'm particularly worried that we in the west will lose interest. Though the German populace overwhelmingly support Ukraine their leadership hasnt been stellar. I worry that they can torpedo the whole sanctions as what Hungary has already done. Ukraine needs time and if this southern offensive is successful, as it appears promising with news that 2k russians are asking for a green corridor, we may be talking Crimea and the whole of eastern Ukraine soon.

Russia is isolated geopolitically. China and india buying their oil isn't a sign of allies. They are vultures feeding on a corpse. And its silly for Putin to say that they will fill the technology gap left by the sanctions. I really dont see how much longer Russia can sustain this war. This appears to be one where they know that all is lost. If they are going down they will inflict as much pain as possible to the one that humiliated them.

Many good points
Last sentence seems especially true.

 

[zztop]

unsurprising

Russia hits Ukraine's Black Sea port despite grain deal

Russian missiles have struck Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odesa just hours after Moscow and Kyiv signed deals to allow grain exports to resume from there.

apnews.com

Russian missiles hit Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odesa just hours after Moscow and Kyiv signed deals to allow grain exports to resume from there. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry denounced Saturday’s airstrikes as a “spit in the face” to Turkey and the United Nations, which brokered the agreements.

Two Russian Kalibr cruise missiles hit the port’s infrastructure and Ukrainian air defenses brought down two others, the Ukrainian military’s Southern Command said. Odesa regional governor Maksym Marchenko said an unspecified number of people were injured in the attack.

 

[MT15]

Another good sign that Russia is feeling isolated

 

[MT15]

 

[UriUT]

For the life of me, I cannot understand why some on the far left are so attracted to Russia. It's quite obvious to me why the far right would but what is it about this iteration of russia that appeals to the likes of Chomsky? I saw 2 far left EU MP from Ireland defending Russia w/ the same vigor. Have Chomsky's antagonism of American imperialism cloud his reasoning?

 

[MT15]

For the life of me, I cannot understand why some on the far left are so attracted to Russia. It's quite obvious to me why the far right would but what is it about this iteration of russia that appeals to the likes of Chomsky? I saw 2 far left EU MP from Ireland defending Russia w/ the same vigor. Have Chomsky's antagonism of American imperialism cloud his reasoning?

Chomsky has lost the plot is the only thing that makes sense to me.

 

[UriUT]

Those are mind boggling numbers. I also saw somewhere that they have committed some 80% or more of their entire military man power into Ukraine. That is taking away from forces that would be defending their eastern borders etc. And they are handing out relatively lucrative incentives and raised their age limit on recruits. This report explains that.