Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[UriUT]

Another good sign that Russia is feeling isolated

To further your point on their economic demise:

From our analysis, it becomes clear: business retreats and sanctions are crippling the Russian economy, in the short-term, and the long-term. We tackle a wide range of common misperceptions – and shed light on what is actually going on inside Russia, including:

- Despite Putin’s delusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent; the hollowing out of Russia’s domestic innovation and production base has led to soaring prices and consumer angst – as we explain further in Section IV of this paper.

- Putin is resorting to patently unsustainable, dramatic fiscal and monetary intervention to smooth over these structural economic weaknesses, which has already sent his government budget into deficit for the first time in years and drained his foreign reserves even with high energy prices – and Kremlin finances are in much, much more dire straits than conventionally understood – as we explain further in Section VI of this paper.

Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia, and The Kyiv School of Economics and McFaul-Yermak Working Group have led the way in proposing additional sanctions measures.

This paper makes the point that the good economic reports were based on cherry-picked numbers released by Moscow...ie exchange rate and lowering interest rates. And as a reminder, Russia is selling their crude at a substantial discount to China and India. I'm sure it's still profitable but the other aspects of their economy are imploding. This war has pretty much wiped out what they have achieved since the Soviet collapse.


Edit> sorry not inflation numbers but rather exchange rate.

 

[zztop]

II suspect this is related to the war

Car blast kills daughter of Russian known as 'Putin's brain'

Russian authorities say a car bomb killed the adult daughter of an influential political theorist who is often referred to as “Putin’s brain.”

apnews.com

 

[Taurus]

II suspect this is related to the war

Car blast kills daughter of Russian known as 'Putin's brain'

Russian authorities say a car bomb killed the adult daughter of an influential political theorist who is often referred to as “Putin’s brain.”

apnews.com

Why are these misogynists discounting her own accomplishments? She wasn't just "the daughter", she had her own career.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

This guy is about as much of a 'political theorist' as Joseph Goebbels. His daughter was cut from the same cloth and basically advocated genocide against Ukrainians.

 

[cuddlemonkey]

What are the odds that Vlad had her killed to pin it on Ukraine?

 

[zztop]

What are the odds that Vlad had her killed to pin it on Ukraine?

I read speculation was it was intended for her father, but he decided to let her drive his vehicle... I will call it speculation b/c no idea if that is valid info or not. I think the bigger target would have been him though.

At the bottom of the article they mention:

An unknown Russian group, the National Republican Army, claimed responsibility Sunday for the bombing, according to a former Russian lawmaker, Ilya Ponomarev. The AP could not verify the existence of the group. Ponomarev, who left Russia after voting against its annexation of Crimea in 2014, made the statement to Ukrainian TV.

 

[zztop]

attacking civilians once again...

22 reported killed in Independence Day attack in Ukraine

Ukraine’s president says Russian forces have launched a rocket attack on a train station in central Ukraine on the country’s Independence Day, killing 22 people.

apnews.com

 

[zztop]

probably just an unfortunate accident..

Top Russian oil official falls to death from hospital window - sources

Ravil Maganov, the chairman of Russia's second-largest oil producer Lukoil , died on Thursday after falling from a hospital window in Moscow, two sources familiar with the situation said, becoming the latest in a series of businessmen to meet with sudden unexplained deaths.

www.reuters.com

 

[samiam5211]

If I get sick in Russia, i am requesting a room on the first floor.

 

[efil4]

If I get sick in Russia, i am requesting a room on the first floor.

if you, a US citizen, gets sick in Russia, its novachok and floor number wont matter.

 

[Taurus]

probably just an unfortunate accident..

Top Russian oil official falls to death from hospital window - sources

Ravil Maganov, the chairman of Russia's second-largest oil producer Lukoil , died on Thursday after falling from a hospital window in Moscow, two sources familiar with the situation said, becoming the latest in a series of businessmen to meet with sudden unexplained deaths.

www.reuters.com

This is the government Trumpists want. It's "strong" to them.

 

[MT15]

Looks like a good day for Ukraine.

 

[UriUT]

I cannot wait for the operational details to come out of this Ukrainian offensive. There has been a few snippets here and there, particularly the role of HARM missiles and German SAMs in the Kharkhiv front. What will be especially interesting is whether the Russians were baited into extracting forces from the Kharkhiv Oblast to Kherson, where they are now trapped without and an escape path. All their bridges are destroyed behind them.

 

[MT15]

Zelensky has certainly taken on his role very, very well:

 

[UriUT]

In the latest "don't believe your lying eyes and ears; believe in the Russian asset Tucker" episode.



Even the Russians aren't that optimistic.



It feels like another life ago when less than 8% of Republicans view Russia favorably. (circa 2016 for those wondering).

 

[efil4]

In the latest "don't believe your lying eyes and ears; believe in the Russian asset Tucker" episode.



Even the Russians aren't that optimistic.



It feels like another life ago when less than 8% of Republicans view Russia favorably. (circa 2016 for those wondering).

What in the world is Carlson and MacGregor talking about?

 

[UriUT]

What in the world is Carlson and MacGregor talking about?

Propaganda. Alternate reality. Feed the stupid in the machine that is Fox News viewers.

 

[coldseat]

In the latest "don't believe your lying eyes and ears; believe in the Russian asset Tucker" episode.



Even the Russians aren't that optimistic.



It feels like another life ago when less than 8% of Republicans view Russia favorably. (circa 2016 for those wondering).

That segment on Russian state TV was pretty intense.