Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

 

[MT15]

 

[UriUT]

"В районе Майдана или Крещатика танцы подготовим". Что человеку с голосом Кадырова докладывали накануне вторжения России - BBC News Русская служба

В распоряжении Би-би-си оказались голосовые сообщения, которыми накануне российского вторжения на Украину обменивались человек с голосом главы Чечни Рамзана Кадырова и человек с голосом зама чеченской Росгвардии Даниила Мартынова. Они обсуждают, как бойцы будут заходить в здания в Украине и...

www.bbc.com

On Friday, February 25, on the Instagram account where the head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov most often broadcasts live, a video was published with tens of thousands of security forces in the center of Grozny. On it, employees of the security forces of Chechnya stand on the territory of Kadyrov's residence and listen to the speech of the head of the republic.
"Taking this opportunity, I want to give advice to the current president Zelensky. Until he becomes the ex-president of Ukraine, so that he quickly calls our president, Supreme Commander Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, and asks for an apology," says Kadyrov.
The official purpose of the event is to show that security forces from Chechnya are ready to take part in the hostilities in Ukraine. However, in fact, part of the units has long been deployed closer to Ukraine, and there is also evidence that Chechen fighters are already participating in hostilities.

So apparently the Chechnyan knew about the invasion in advance and are deployed in Ukraine.

 

[CoolBrees]

So I mentioned this on the main site and here that 160,000 wasn’t enough and that was before Ukraine showed what kind of nation they are (at least me to me; a woefully uneducated American when it comes to Eastern Europe ethnic histories).

Anyway, I only see two real possible endgames that Putin could have had in mind when he invaded:

1) “Invade” and flex a muscle and tell the military to stand down and effectively set off a coup. Putin could slip that punch saying things such as “it was in the works for a while” “the people wanted it,” etc.

I believe this to be the most likely thought going in.

2) Invade, take Ukraine as the first step in further conquest. You can hold a country behind the war line easier than you can occupy one. Secret police, death squads etc keep locals in line when Twitter is turned off.

I feel this was not the original plan due to the overall outrage by his Allies. Turkey, Hungary and Poland have all comndemed and sent assistance to Ukraine. They aren’t waffling either. I would imagine that if your true goal was reunification of the USSR, under a kleptocratic regime, I would think you would let your Allies in on it.

So if it was the first option, what does he do now? I realize it is only day three and wars take years but he couldn’t have expected to get into a slog with his neighbor. Now the whole world is unified against him and each video coming out makes him look worse and worse.

Does he crush them mercilessly, using outlawed weapons for the whole world to see? Does he just say burn it all down and push further west? He isn’t going to just say my bad and leave that for sure.

Fragile little men with fragile egos do not take this kind of thing well. So what happens now?

 

[CoolBrees]

This is what I am referring to

Putin’s miscalculation

The president has misread not only Ukrainians, but also Russians.

www.politico.eu

 

[SamAndreas]

This is what I am referring to

Putin’s miscalculation

The president has misread not only Ukrainians, but also Russians.

www.politico.eu

I sure hope so. I would like to think he's miscalculated his position.

I know for a fact that Zelenskiy has shown himself to have a spine, the real stuff of leadership who troops will follow to hell and back.

For me that was unexpected. A "battle of Britain" kind of plucky unexpected. If Ukraine does survive It will be showing his spine when it really mattered that made the big difference.

 

[MT15]

I was reading an opinion that the willingness of the US to call out his plans by revealing intelligence in real time has frustrated Putin. Also it may have delayed the invasion as he scrambled around just enough that the supply chains are for shirt now. Troops in Belarus were said to be selling their fuel reserves for booze and food, which has resulted in some cases of tanks running out of fuel on the road like we saw above.

Also, points have been made that the Russian soldiers are largely conscripts, who may not feel the sort of zeal for killing Ukrainians that Putin had banked on. Some have surrendered, saying they were told they were to gather intelligence, not start a war.

I don’t know how this will end, but it’s already a huge problem for Putin that he didn’t see coming.

 

[MT15]

And the crowd laughs at this:

 

[MT15]

Is this the big hammer of sanctions?

 

[SamAndreas]

And the crowd laughs at this:

This was at your link:

 

[UriUT]

So I stumbled upon this video. It's actually a well done one that examines Putin's motivation towards Ukraine.



And I did a quick research on the point that I was unaware of upon seizing Crimea back in 2014. Russia obtained a vast natural gas reserve from this harmless land grab. Then by stoking an insurgency, Russia prevented Ukraine from NATO's admittance.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2018/10/10/black-sea-gas-deposits-an-overlooked-reason-for-russias-occupation-of-crimea/

Kleptocrat continues to be kleptocrats.

 

[UriUT]

Is this the big hammer of sanctions?

Come Monday we will find out



Edit: From what I read, some parts will make it very difficult for Russia to use that 500-600 billion dollar reserve (actually not in Russia) they've accrued to prop up the ruble.

 

[SamAndreas]

I was reading an opinion that the willingness of the US to call out his plans by revealing intelligence in real time has frustrated Putin. Also it may have delayed the invasion as he scrambled around just enough that the supply chains are for shirt now. Troops in Belarus were said to be selling their fuel reserves for booze and food, which has resulted in some cases of tanks running out of fuel on the road like we saw above.

Also, points have been made that the Russian soldiers are largely conscripts, who may not feel the sort of zeal for killing Ukrainians that Putin had banked on. Some have surrendered, saying they were told they were to gather intelligence, not start a war.

I don’t know how this will end, but it’s already a huge problem for Putin that he didn’t see coming.

He certainly didn't achieve any kind of strategic surprise. Not accomplishing that rules out any kind of blitzkrieg effect despite him having aligned his forces for doing that. He's no military genius that's for sure.

There's no shock and awe to it at all. That coupled with his counterpart having real leader charisma after all puts his plans in jeopardy. I would say he underestimated Zelensky, I certainly did.

I'm pleased that I underestimated him. I think the US offering him a way out was to test his mettle, they found him satisfactory because he didn't run away, and now we're lending him some material support that would not have been forthcoming from us or Germany had he ran away at our suggestion, with our help.

We all learned lessons in Afghanistan. The leader a country has is very important, without that all the material support in the world will not change a military outcome.

i'm pretty pleased with Biden in all of this. We've got a good leader too.

 

[Xeno]

Come Monday we will find out



Edit: From what I read, some parts will make it very difficult for Russia to use that 500-600 billion dollar reserve (actually not in Russia) they've accrued to prop up the ruble.

 

[MT15]

So, am reading now that it wasn’t the CFO, but rather a different guy:

 

[Optimus Prime]

 

[zztop]

strong words

 

[GrandAdmiral]

strong words

So in other words, don't expect Mitt to be the Republican presidential nominee any time soon.