Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

This is somewhat disturbing...



If true then its suggestive of Putin not making rational decisions.

The same thing is coming from multiple sources.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

And to add further context, Rubio is the Vice Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee. Also, part of me has this sinking feeling that Putin possibly intended this first wave to be ineffective... perhaps he sent in troops he considered borderline and/or ones that don't completely buy into his propaganda who would possible support a coup to replace him. So he sends them in as the first wave of cannon fodder to both soften the Ukraine resistance and thin the ranks of those potentially disloyal to him.

 

[UriUT]

Upon reflection, the US revealing our intelligence before the invasion appears to be the right choice. World opinion is vastly in Ukraine's favor. I just watched a clip of the Russian ambassador to Ireland try to explain that Russia is there to prevent the genocide in Donbas and was met by the host with a report that Russia have indiscriminately attacked civilian areas by amnesty international. Further, this ruse that they care there for peace keeping missions have hindered them strategically, as well as false. Just this morning, I saw that Vindman was confused why Ukraine's power grid was still on.

And Biden apparently just approved 600 million in military aide. Possibly, a reaction to Zelenskyy saying, "I need ammunition, not a ride"?

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Watching the Kremlin's propagandists is like watching Trump's cronies trying to peddle the election conspiracy stuff with the key difference being the world's populace isn't as saturated with the levels of crazy in the US.

 

[UriUT]

And to add further context, Rubio is the Vice Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee. Also, part of me has this sinking feeling that Putin possibly intended this first wave to be ineffective... perhaps he sent in troops he considered borderline and/or ones that don't completely buy into his propaganda who would possible support a coup to replace him. So he sends them in as the first wave of cannon fodder to both soften the Ukraine resistance and thin the ranks of those potentially disloyal to him.

This guy has some insight to some Russian strategy. His page has some interesting information on information you may not see on the MSM as well.

 

[Xeno]

And to add further context, Rubio is the Vice Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee. Also, part of me has this sinking feeling that Putin possibly intended this first wave to be ineffective... perhaps he sent in troops he considered borderline and/or ones that don't completely buy into his propaganda who would possible support a coup to replace him. So he sends them in as the first wave of cannon fodder to both soften the Ukraine resistance and thin the ranks of those potentially disloyal to him.

Terrible idea. Throwing away soldiers is a good way to turn the people and the military against you if you can't convince them it's for a righteous cause and they're already dealing with thousands of protestors on the streets.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Terrible idea. Throwing away soldiers is a good way to turn the people and the military against you if you can't convince them it's for a righteous cause and they're already dealing with thousands of protestors on the streets.

Well if you send in those of borderline loyalty first then the ones left over are the hardcore Putin fanatics who would follow him through the Gates of Hell. As for the people, I doubt this guy ever really had anywhere near a majority of popular support. It's just that the elections there are rigged and people are too afraid and/or apathetic to do anything about him.

 

[UriUT]

Well if you send in those of borderline loyalty first then the ones left over are the hardcore Putin fanatics who would follow him through the Gates of Hell. As for the people, I doubt this guy ever really had anywhere near a majority of popular support. It's just that the elections there are rigged and people are too afraid and/or apathetic to do anything about him.

You may be surprised but his popular support is real. I remember an international poll showed his popularity...and i can't remember the exact number now, but it was higher than 60%. He has mastered the arts of confusing the population with conspiracy theories even after a scandal. For example, I remember a Russian who was so confused what was real that she just brushed things away after the reporter told her something. Now that I think about it, this was likely a This American Life story. He also controls the media with an iron grip. He allows protest but it is highly monitored. All for show that Russia is a democracy. And probably the most important factor, their lives are better than what it was during the Yeltsin years.

 

[Xeno]

Well if you send in those of borderline loyalty first then the ones left over are the hardcore Putin fanatics who would follow him through the Gates of Hell. As for the people, I doubt this guy ever really had anywhere near a majority of popular support. It's just that the elections there are rigged and people are too afraid and/or apathetic to do anything about him.

You may be surprised but his popular support is real. I remember an international poll showed his popularity...and i can't remember the exact number now, but it was higher than 60%. He has mastered the arts of confusing the population with conspiracy theories even after a scandal. For example, I remember a Russian who was so confused what was real that she just brushed things away after the reporter told her something. Now that I think about it, this was likely a This American Life story. He also controls the media with an iron grip. He allows protest but it is highly monitored. All for show that Russia is a democracy. And probably the most important factor, their lives are better than what it was during the Yeltsin years.

Throwing bodies into the meat grinder of war and escalating state violence against an already unhappy population is what ended the Romanovs. By all means if Putin wants to test that and end up like the Romanovs I won't shed a tear for him.

 

[UriUT]

Throwing bodies into the meat grinder of war and escalating state violence against an already unhappy population is what ended the Romanovs. By all means if Putin wants to test that and end up like the Romanovs I won't shed a tear for him.

He has mastered the art of hiding casualty numbers. The last few campaigns had really high casualties and it wasn't mentioned at all. For example, that incident in Syria, a doctor would say that he must've seen 100 dead soldiers, but that wasn't reported at all. Mothers would come asking for their kids and nothing was ever done.

Now with the rise of social media and how visible this war is, I don't know if he can contain this. Maybe he can. After all he has a mobile crematorium. He has banned facebook from what I saw. The positive news is, I feel is, that the younger population have been able to avoid propaganda from the conventional media. I'm hoping that you are right, though. He appears to be going crazy if he's threatening EU countries and risking war w/ the West. That is scary...

 

[MT15]

This guy has a couple of extremely interesting threads:

 

[MT15]

I am seeing reports that Zelenky’s addresses are being viewed widely in Russia. I know that Putin has removed video and voice recording capability from FB, but somehow they are still getting them.

Also, from the two threads I posted, word filters out that Russians are apparently unable to refuel and get food to their advance units. That the soldiers in Belarus, for example, have been selling their fuel reserves for booze and food these long weeks before the attack.

The main thing now, according to the guy I posted above, is to get some sort of off-ramp to Putin before he becomes desperate enough to do something incredibly rash.

 

[MT15]

Unintended consequences for Putin

 

[MT15]

 

[MT15]

I’m about done, have to go do things, but this is amazingly clever as a way to undermine Putin at home:

 

[B4YOU]

Lt. Col. Vindman: Trump ‘Absolutely’ at Fault for Russia’s Ukraine Invasion

“It’s because of Trump’s corruption that we have a less capable, less prepared Ukraine,” retired Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman told VICE News.

www.vice.com

 

[SFIDC3]

He can say they are.

There is an eerily similar playbook at work here in the US....

 

[superchuck500]

This is somewhat disturbing...



If true then its suggestive of Putin not making rational decisions.

My wife has been saying for days that he looks “puffy” and edgy - like someone on steroids. (Which could mean he has a medical condition).

Pure speculation but it’s interesting to see other commentary that something is wrong with him.