Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[UriUT]

In a vacuum I think the NATO thing really only provided Putin a more convenient excuse to go ahead and do what he was eventually going to do in the not too distant future regardless.. he's 69, he had to continue rolling with this shirt at some point if he's going to piece it back together.

Finland or Sweden joining Nato would spark Russian response: Russia warns

If either Nordic country sought to join the security alliance it "would have serious military and political consequences that would require our country to take reciprocal steps, a spokesperson for the Russian foreign ministry said

www.tbsnews.net

They have lost their minds.

 

[bdb13]

Finland or Sweden joining Nato would spark Russian response: Russia warns

If either Nordic country sought to join the security alliance it "would have serious military and political consequences that would require our country to take reciprocal steps, a spokesperson for the Russian foreign ministry said

www.tbsnews.net

They have lost their minds.

I mean he's full on international supervillain now right? How much lower a view of him can we collectively hold than we already do? I think he knows it can only go so low.

I do believe that for nations who are already members of NATO, it's different.. but yeah, I'd be very leery of Putin's next moves if he can topple and secure Ukraine. He certainly knows the shirt's not going to piece itself together.

 

[UriUT]

I mean he's full on international supervillain now right? How much lower a view of him can we collectively hold than we already do? I think he knows it can only go so low.

I do believe that for nations who are already members of NATO, it's different.. but yeah, I'd be very leery of Putin's next moves if he can topple and secure Ukraine. He certainly knows the shirt's not going to piece itself together.

Those two nations, contrary to Ukraine, are members of the EU. The EU will get involved if they are attacked. The only one not obligated will be the US and Canada, and you know that wont happen.

And yeah, I believe that Putin has vastly underestimated Ukraine's resistance and alignment against him. This may be him acting out. He cannot rationally expect to attack Finland and Norway without severe reaction. Especially from better equipped armies that will not allow him air superiority.

 

[CoolBrees]

He is literally saying, join me or die to the Ukrainian Army. So far the entire army is telling him the exact same thing as those soldiers in the Black Sea.

Russian, go fork yourself

They are brave and proud people, holy shirt.

Good luck taking Finland or Norway, Btw.

Not only are they in the EU and economic super powers, we have military establishments in both. A lot in Norway. Like a couple of Air Force bases Marines depot a lot.

If he goes there we are all in a really, really, bad place is what I mean.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

It's uncertain whether he is narcissistic enough to launch nukes and basically end the world. I don't think he is crazy but he is so self-absorbed that if he sensed the end was coming for himself/his regime that he would do it. The world would be dead but I'm sure having aggrandized power for so long he has created a massive bunker safe for himself and his inner circle/Russian hotties where he can do a king of the world dance for his remaining natural life span.

This is different than the late 80's/early 90's fall of the Soviet Union. I think the ruling Soviet elite back then were far more rational actors. Putin, on the other hand, is not going to surrender and submit himself to a war crimes tribunal.

 

[Dragon]

It's uncertain whether he is narcissistic enough to launch nukes and basically end the world. I don't think he is crazy but he is so self-absorbed that if he sensed the end was coming for himself/his regime that he would do it. The world would be dead but I'm sure having aggrandized power for so long he has created a massive bunker safe for himself and his inner circle/Russian hotties where he can do a king of the world dance for his remaining natural life span.

This is different than the late 80's/early 90's fall of the Soviet Union. I think the ruling Soviet elite back then were far more rational actors. Putin, on the other hand, is not going to surrender and submit himself to a war crimes tribunal.

IMHO the only ones able of stop him would be people close to him.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

IMHO the only ones able of stop him would be people close to him.

Right, it would take a coup. I think the idealized end-game of these economic sanctions is to pressure the Russian oligarchs to get rid of him.

 

[bird]

Baltics are NATO. I strongly believe Putin isn’t going to attack NATO. It would directly challenge Article 5 and I don’t think the West is ready to surrender NATO.

This is true. That being said he certainly can hit them with cyber attacks and other destabilization tactics.

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

IMHO the only ones able of stop him would be people close to him.

Agree. Two problems with that though. 1) No one has. 2) It's my understanding he has become more and more isolated over the past several years.

 

[Dragon]

This is true. That being said he certainly can hit them with cyber attacks and other destabilization tactics.

Annonymous have called for total Cyber war against Russia.

 

[el caliente]

What does that even mean? Are Nazis running the Ukraine?

 

[bdb13]

What does that even mean? Are Nazis running the Ukraine?

He can say they are.

 

[Dragon]

What does that even mean? Are Nazis running the Ukraine?

Reuse of an old historic excuse. The USSR used the same reason for attacking most of the former iron curtain countries during the last days of WW2

It is trigger words like Communist and Extreme left in the US

 

[UriUT]

Fighting for the country, family, and homes.

Meanwhile supposedly Russian soldiers are foraging for supplies.

 

[Xeno]

Right, it would take a coup. I think the idealized end-game of these economic sanctions is to pressure the Russian oligarchs to get rid of him.

It would have to be the military. Most of the oligarchs are too compromised to go against him.

What does that even mean? Are Nazis running the Ukraine?

Reuse of an old historic excuse. The USSR used the same reason for attacking most of the former iron curtain countries during the last days of WW2

It is trigger words like Communist and Extreme left in the US

This is mostly true. Putin is accusing the government of Ukraine of being nazis, which is complete nonsense. However, there has been something of an infiltration of nazis/white supremacists in parts of Ukraine's national guard, particularly in the Donbas region.

That said, our national guard absolutely also has nazis in it so it's still complete bullshirt. There's without a doubt at least one nazi in every western military.

 

[zztop]

A life cut short for no reason other than some power hungry dictator who decided to invade a country under the pretense of "defense"

Ukraine military says soldier blew himself up on bridge to halt Russian advance

The Ukraine military wrote early Friday morning that a soldier blew himself up on a bridge to stop Russian soldiers trying to advance.Vitaliy Volodymyrovych Skakun was an engineer for a battalion o…

thehill.com

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

God bless 'em.

 

[superchuck500]

What does that even mean? Are Nazis running the Ukraine?

He said Russia had no intention of invading Ukraine. He said Ukraine was committing genocide against Russian-speakers in the east. He said Ukraine is overrun by Nazis.

None of it is true.

Yes there are some right wing neo-Nazi elements in Ukraine. There are neo-Nazis in Germany and the US. Ukraine’s president is Jewish. Ukraine’s president is a native Russian speaker.