Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

What does that even mean? Are Nazis running the Ukraine?

It's just meaningless drivel peddled to those who like to gorge on low-hanging fruit. Since Putin has unquestioned control of Russia, he doesn't have to put as much effort in his disinformation or wacky political gaslighting as Trump. Most Russians, however, are not taking the bait.

 

[Xeno]

God bless 'em.

Clearly god's country

 

[UriUT]

Per NBC Kazakhstan denied Russia s request for troops. This is highly odd. Are they having numbers problem?

 

[Xeno]

Per NBC Kazakhstan denied Russia s request for troops. This is highly odd. Are they having numbers problem?

If Ukrainian reports are to be believed, they're eliminating Russian soldiers 10:1 and have prisoners as well. There have also been videos purporting to show abandoned Russian vehicles and gear implying there's also desertion going on. Obviously we can't know how much of that is true yet but Ukraine seems to be making Russia bleed for this.

And if Kazakhstan is really denying Russia's request then this may come unraveled quickly. Putin supposedly controls their military.

 

[Dragon]

The local news here reports that the Russians negotiators have threatned the Ukrainian army leadership and told them if they did not surrender their families would be targeted after the Russians had conquered Ukraine.

 

[MT15]

I fervently hope the reports above are true.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

From what Zelensky is saying it seems a massive Russian push may be happening in the next day. Putin clearly thought this would be over by now but he's stalled. We are seeing the fallout of this in his getting rebuffed by Kazakhstan, China only voting as "abstain" in the recent UN vote, and other recent developments. Imagine how weak he will look to the rest of the world by not being able to overcome Ukraine with his conventional army.

 

[UriUT]

Zelensky denies US offer to evac him.

 

[MT15]

American Republicans should be ashamed:

 

[UriUT]

Russian media literally using Tucker Carlson clips to say americans support them. Pompeo too.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Here's a good twitter feed to follow: https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent

 

[UriUT]

Edit. My bad oh clip

 

[GrandAdmiral]

I dont know how the russians can occupy Kyiv with this type of determination.

Guy on CNN just said he doesn't believe Russia has enough troops in Kyiv right now to take the city. He believes they're spread too thin handling the other campaigns in Ukraine.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

My first thought is: amazing bravery and determination. Second thought: a bit overkill with the Molotovs -- those things are already on fire, save some for later!

 

[GrandAdmiral]

My first thought is: amazing bravery and determination. Second thought: a bit overkill with the Molotovs -- those things are already on fire, save some for later!

Someone on SR said they've been taking that video down cuz it was shown to be from 2014.

 

[UriUT]

Yeah sorry. That vid wasn't from tonight. Still I don't see how they intend to hold Kyiv.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

This is somewhat disturbing...



If true then its suggestive of Putin not making rational decisions.

 

[Xeno]

This is somewhat disturbing...



If true then its suggestive of Putin not making rational decisions.

I hate that I have to agree with Marco Rubio but yeah any chance that Putin could be regarded as a rational actor went out the window when he immediately made it clear he wanted Kyiv and he wanted Zelensky's head. If we expect and prepare for anything less than a worst case scenario it's at our own peril.

Even if this is a feint by Putin to throw everyone off balance it has the same end result. He may already be past the point of being able to back down after his threats against Ukrainian military families, the president and his family and Finland.