Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[Taurus]

Putin probably told him it was and that he intended to retake it.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

...and the GOP wants to compare Canada with Russia...

 

[coldseat]

Reports are Putin well be watching the the State of the Union to watch the Republican reaction to see if the US is untied. That makes sense, he knows Republicans are the key to dividing and destroying this country and democracy in general.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

State of the Union about to start. Biden needs to do what the GOP is asking as far as re-opening domestic oil production. It's an easy short-term move using the cover of Russia's aggression. He can say blah blah we'll work on renewable stuff, too. I don't think he'll do it, though.

 

[UriUT]

yeah I agree. As a matter of fact I was pumping gas today and 2 folks bitched about it. Now they were anti Biden regardless, but it’s the right call short term.

And anyone caught the terrible Freudian slip? Iranian…and pelosi had that look..

 

[superchuck500]

 

[superchuck500]

State of the Union about to start. Biden needs to do what the GOP is asking as far as re-opening domestic oil production. It's an easy short-term move using the cover of Russia's aggression. He can say blah blah we'll work on renewable stuff, too. I don't think he'll do it, though.

The U.S. oil industry is gushing, with record production expected in 2023

High crude oil prices will drive U.S. oil production to record highs in 2023, the federal government said.

fortune.com

 

[coldseat]

Reports are Putin well be watching the the State of the Union to watch the Republican reaction to see if the US is untied. That makes sense, he knows Republicans are the key to dividing and destroying this country and democracy in general.

Republicans never disappoint. Everything they do is about making Americans as divided and discontent as possible and then blaming Biden and Democrats for it. I just will never understand why people continue to vote for Republican and buy their crap, that has been shown over and over again that it's actually crap.

The dictator is betting that division within the United States will sap American resolve and thereby sow disunity between the United States and European democracies — allowing him to crush Ukraine’s democracy and potentially others. And Republicans are giving him what he wants. They are so determined to see President Biden fail that they would let President Putin succeed.

Those in the chamber rose to applaud the Ukrainian ambassador, and many wore Ukraine’s yellow and blue. But as Biden extolled national unity — “He thought he could divide us at home, in this chamber, in this nation. … But Putin was wrong." — Republican lawmakers sniped at him on Twitter.

“Joe Biden sought to appease Vladimir Putin from the very beginning,” wrote Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.). “Biden is empowering our enemies.”

“The United States is back to leading from behind under President Biden,” tweeted Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.). “This is the second time Putin has invaded a foreign country while Joe Biden has been in the White House.”

How deep was the contempt? As Biden mentioned the cancers that kill many U.S. veterans, including his own son Beau, Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) heckled the president.
GOP leaders had set the blame-Biden tone earlier in the day. Rep. Michael McCaul (Tex.), the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, likened Biden’s actions toward Russia to Neville Chamberlain’s appeasement of Hitler, saying, “We have a weak president, and he’s creating a very dangerous world.”

Also Tuesday, Rep. Elise Stefanik (N.Y.), the No. 3 House GOP leader, said Biden “failed to engage in meaningful deterrence against Russian aggression,” and asserted that “the war on Ukraine represents one of the greatest foreign policy failures in modern history.”

House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) and Rep. Steve Scalise (La.), the House GOP whip, amplified the attacks on Biden over Ukraine. And Sen. John Barrasso (Wyo.), head of the Senate Republican Conference, said Biden’s “policies from Day One have enabled, emboldened Vladimir Putin to do what he has done,” adding that it’s “as if Vladimir Putin were Joe Biden’s secretary of energy.”

Some Republican candidates have even been fundraising off calling Biden “weak” on Ukraine.

The relentless assault no doubt undermines Biden — but it also weakens America. Biden’s response — the U.S. response — can be only as strong as Republicans allow. By sabotaging the commander in chief, Republican leaders have made it more difficult to rally the nation to accept wartime sacrifices (accepting higher energy prices or, potentially, lost American lives).

A poll released Monday by Yahoo News-YouGov shows how corrosive the Republican assaults on Biden have been. Though Americans overwhelmingly call the Ukraine invasion unjustified, Trump voters actually had a more favorable opinion of Putin than of Biden. Ninety-five percent of Trump voters expressed an unfavorable view of Biden (including 87 percent holding a very unfavorable view), compared with 78 percent of Trump voters expressing an unfavorable view of Putin (60 percent very unfavorable). Only 3 percent of Trump voters said Biden is “doing a better job leading his country” than Putin, while 47 percent said the dictator, who has brought isolation and economic crisis to Russia, is doing a better job than Biden.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/01/republicans-biden-fail-putin-succeed/

 

[The moose]

The U.S. oil industry is gushing, with record production expected in 2023

High crude oil prices will drive U.S. oil production to record highs in 2023, the federal government said.

fortune.com

Yeah I was not thinking that oil production would be an issue. If what I had to sell went up to a ten year high I would certainly be producing as much as possible.

watch everything skyrocket. Coal is gonna go to the moon because Russia supplies a great portion of the world supply. I think coal has gone up over 300% in the last year

 

[coldseat]

Yeah I was not thinking that oil production would be an issue. If what I had to sell went up to a ten year high I would certainly be producing as much as possible.

watch everything skyrocket. Coal is gonna go to the moon because Russia supplies a great portion of the world supply. I think coal has gone up over 300% in the last year

This makes Joe Manchin tingly and excited inside.

 

[The moose]

This makes Joe Manchin tingly and excited inside.

Yeah three hundred percent is still not enough to get that industry a pulse. With fuel costs up, shipping up, and labor costs up it is not gonna be enough. When we couldn't compete with the competition shipping from half way around the globe it is gonna have to get a ton higher. Active mines will be making more yeah but investment into new ones won't happen.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

The U.S. oil industry is gushing, with record production expected in 2023

High crude oil prices will drive U.S. oil production to record highs in 2023, the federal government said.

fortune.com

This seems more an increase to make money from the rising prices. I get that a lot of the Keystone Pipeline stuff is political posturing but, at this point, I don't see what's so bad about saying 'we'll study it' or other alternative measures.

As horrible as this will sound given the tragedy unfolding in real-time, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has given Biden a chance to 'reset' his agenda and make a shift towards the center. His SOTU address was hit and miss. Some good points of commonality but a lot of cringe-worthy doubling down on fringe issues. If he's willing to go so far as to say "Fund the Police," he should have made similar shifts in other areas of policy, particularly domestic production of oil when he is being given the perfect cover to do so.

 

[RebSaint]

It was only a matter of time that the US authoritarians suck up to the guy who got their fearless leader elected; it'll be interesting to see how far they'll go as the body count in the Ukraine ticks up and the world begins to notice that this conflict is about democracy vs. authoritarianism.

We'll see if more of the GOP wakes up then.

 

[superchuck500]

Meanwhile Fox News

 

[B4YOU]

Republicans never disappoint. Everything they do is about making Americans as divided and discontent as possible and then blaming Biden and Democrats for it. I just will never understand why people continue to vote for Republican and buy their crap, that has been shown over and over again that it's actually crap.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/01/republicans-biden-fail-putin-succeed/

I’ve yet to see a Republican offer an alternative plan of action. If I’ve missed it, then someone please post.

It looks like Biden is threading the needle here. I wish he was capable of giving a better SotU, but he just has poor speech writing, rhetorical skills, and a stutter. I wish Biden and the EU would rally non-NATO nations to start staging troops.

 

[zztop]

According to The New York Times, the U.N. General Assembly adopted a resolution condemning Russian aggression, with 141 countries voting in favor, 34 abstaining, and only five voting against

(anyone want to guess the 5 countries?)

The no votes on the resolution came from: Russia, North Korea, Eritrea, Syria, and Belarus

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Notable a lot of the abstentions came from Africa which has slowly drifted into Russia's sphere of influence over the last decade or so.

 

[B4YOU]

Thoughts on the 40mile convoy:

It’s going slow because it can’t and does not need to go faster. I believe Russia sucks at logistics and didn’t communicate the plan to boots on the ground. I also think they have more equipment than troops. I think during the first couple days equipment out ran supply lines and troops out ran leaders. Fuel or fear are the only reasons for abandoned RUS vehicles without bullet holes. They can’t go faster and not risk repeating this.

They also don’t have to go faster. NATO won’t engage with military. Non-NATO nations are not unified enough to bomb that convoy. UKR isn’t attacking because they lack the numbers to take on such a large group either via ground or air. I expect Russia will encircle Kyiv in the next few days. Putin will siege the city. I think artillery will rain down after a second round of peace talks. I think RUS will wait weeks before entering the city. If UKR govt allows itself to be surrounded, then RUS will choke them out.

I thought Putin would pick off 6-8 eastern & coastal oblasts and maybe take Kyiv. At this point I think his goal is everything East of the Dnieper.