Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

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    superchuck500

    superchuck500

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    Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

    Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.


    VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

    But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

    Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

    There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.
    Click to expand...

    www.nytimes.com

    Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

    If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.
    www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com


    www.nytimes.com

    Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

    Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.
    www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

    snyder.substack.com

    How to think about war in Ukraine

    Start with the Ukrainians
    snyder.substack.com snyder.substack.com


     
    UriUT said:


    This is the crap that Russians are being fed. Ukraine barely has military hardware. They are begging for anything. Now they have ballistic missiles. Does it remind anyone else of a certain network in primetime?
    Click to expand...

    That Olga Skabeyeva reminds me too much of Trump Jr.'s girlfriend. Causes me to wonder if they're printing loud obnoxious RW mouthpieces somewhere using a monstrous 3d printer.
     


    The Ukrainians are showing the world how great they are at PR war. I cannot help but have that un Cuban missile crisis moment from Adlai Stevenson.
     
    Speculations about what is wrong with Putin:

    "About 132,000,000 results (0.67 seconds)

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    Given the approaching 40-mile-long convey of Russian vehicles headed to Kyiv, this is going to get even worse really soon.

     
    One advantage the Kyiv defenders have is that the city will be very difficult to surround because of the wet terrain. The heavy armor will have difficulty in that slush. Still, this will be some difficult times. If you read that Russian military analyst, he believes that the Russians haven't put their full military might to bare. They have not fought as their BTG and have been stupidly out running their supplies. That assessment have been backed up by a pentagon spokesman I heard on CNN today. It isn't absolutely guaranteed that the city will fall, but civilian casualties will be high. Prepare for high artillery fire soon according to that analyst and who was it...forgot the US general...that said Russians always open with artillery first.

    And here is my view. I get that the Ukrainians don't have air power to attack that stupidly arranged convoy. It's ridiculous to lead that convoy in the open and in such a straight line. But that also leads me to think that that line will need a staging area. Are they just gonna line up and go into the fire as a line? I hope that's he advantage the Ukrainians need. They will have time to figure out the defensive positions. That's not to say that it's not a bleak scenario. In my very uneducated military strategy view, time is of importance. Putin can only do so much before his economy crumbles.

    As I was typing this, Sen Murphy has an update.

     
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    This was the unfortunate inevitability after the initial flummox. I don't know if they can distribute armaments that fast or if will make a difference without air superiority.

    Also, Marco Rubio continues to give solid info:

     
    Last edited:
    UriUT said:
    True. That convoy reaching and closing off the western side makes more sense than encirclement.
    Click to expand...
    They don't have much choice.

    While that convoy probably is a full division, it's significantly less that what would be needed to encircle the entire city of Kyiv.

    The Russians need five more divisions there to be adequately ready to encircle, take, and then hold that city with the citizens being as motivated to resist as they seem to be.

    I don't think after it turned out that the Russian Army wasn't met with wine and roses by the citizens celebrating and happy to be taken over that the current Russian Army is big enough to take and hold all of the Ukraine. The Russians have only 10 divisions now. I doubt that even that few divisions are all at full strength.

    To give you an idea at the end of WWII the Russian Army had more than a 1,000 divisions.
     
    UriUT said:
    I get that the Ukrainians don't have air power to attack that stupidly arranged convoy. It's ridiculous to lead that convoy in the open and in such a straight line. But that also leads me to think that that line will need a staging area. Are they just gonna line up and go into the fire as a line?
    Click to expand...

    A significant portion of that convoy is supplies, not combat vehicles. Those supply vehicles won't be used to surround the city, and may very well remain as a part of a supply chain stretching back away from Kyiv.
     
    SamAndreas said:
    They don't have much choice.

    While that convoy probably is a full division, it's significantly less that what would be needed to encircle the entire city of Kyiv.

    The Russians need five more divisions there to be adequately ready to encircle, take, and then hold that city with the citizens being as motivated to resist as they seem to be.

    I don't think after it turned out that the Russian Army wasn't met with wine and roses by the citizens celebrating and happy to be taken over that the current Russian Army is big enough to take and hold all of the Ukraine. The Russians have only 10 divisions now. I doubt that even that few divisions are all at full strength.

    To give you an idea at the end of WWII the Russian Army had more than a 1,000 divisions.
    Click to expand...
    The US Army has only 10 divisions now also I believe. They have combat brigades to though such as the 173rd Airborne.
     
    BullSheetBuddha said:
    The US Army has only 10 divisions now also I believe. They have combat brigades to though such as the 173rd Airborne.
    Click to expand...
    I think you're correct, we have 10 regular full strength divisions, but we also have 9 reserve division that could be mobilized fairly quickly, and the Marines have 3 or 4 divisions, something like that.

    My guess is regarding Army that we have about twice, perhaps two and half times what they have, if they had theirs at full strength, and I don't think they do.

    I'm pretty sure our Air Force is many times the size of theirs, and our Navy is many times the size of theirs as well.
     

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