Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (2 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

I think you're correct, we have 10 regular full strength divisions, but we also have 9 reserve division that could be mobilized fairly quickly, and the Marines have 3 or 4 divisions, something like that.

My guess is regarding Army that we have about twice, perhaps two and half times what they have, if they had theirs at full strength, and I don't think they do.

I'm pretty sure our Air Force is many times the size of theirs, and our Navy is many times the size of theirs as well.

I think that's right. Between the Army and Marine Corps I believe we have 13 combat divisions. Then as you say we have our reserve units.

My point was not who is stronger between the US and Russia, my point was that taking on Ukraine with only ten divisions total in your Army is not that great of a stretch in today's world.

 

[SamAndreas]

I think that's right. Between the Army and Marine Corps I believe we have 13 combat divisions. Then as you say we have our reserve units.

My point was not who is stronger between the US and Russia, my point was that taking on Ukraine with only ten divisions total in your Army is not that great of a stretch in today's world.

Without a doubt.

I would like to expand on that part where I said that I thought their divisions are under strength. When I say that I mean they are very under strength.

For years now Russia has had a shadow army of 10 divisions. Those divisions have all the machines they need but they have been maintaining each of them with like 500 people for each division when 15,000 people would be full strength for each.

They've not had more than the bare minimum number of people needed to maintain the machinery, not enough to man and fight with them.

Here's where the news ties in with this. There have been lots of reports that Russian armor and other vehicles that have been left on the roads abandon. That needs to be explained.

What I think happened is those war game exercises before, and the invasion that followed was done without there being much more than a driver in most of the vehicles. That few of those vehicles were fully maned and ready to actually fight. What they were trying to do we pull off a bluff without substance. It just looked like they had a fairy large force arrayed out there. They were trying to cause the government of Ukraine to fold to their demands by scaring them with a shadow army.

I don't think they thought they actually would have to fight. I think all they thought they would have to do is roll into towns and people would give up before few if any shots were fired.

But they did have to fight. There was a batch of tanks, like 58 of them, that were destroyed a couple days ago, they should not have been destroyed by the force that attacked them. Something was very wrong about that. I think many of those tanks didn't have full crews, and no way to fight, so that's why they were lost so easily when they encountered a fight with what looked like an inferior force.

I think once that happened they were committed into the theater and had no recourse but to reconfigure themselves to fight. So they picked up those stray people from those under maned vehicles that didn't have a full crew to fully crew as many vehicles as they could so they could fight.

Thus all those abandon vehicles on the roads. And a much smaller Russian Army running around not doing so well.

That's my wild guess as to what is happening, because something weird is happening that needs to be explained.

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

Without a doubt.

I would like to expand on that part where I said that I thought their divisions are under strength. When I say that I mean they are very under strength.

For years now Russia has had a shadow army of 10 divisions. Those divisions have all the machines they need but they have been maintaining each of them with like 500 people for each division when 15,000 people would be full strength for each.

They've not had more than the bare minimum number of people needed to maintain the machinery, not enough to man and fight with them.

Here's where the news ties in with this. There have been lots of reports that Russian armor and other vehicles that have been left on the roads abandon. That needs to be explained.

What I think happened is those war game exercises before, and the invasion that followed was done without there being much more than a driver in most of the vehicles. That few of those vehicles were fully maned and ready to actually fight. What they were trying to do we pull off a bluff without substance. It just looked like they had a fairy large force arrayed out there. They were trying to cause the government of Ukraine to fold to their demands by scaring them with a shadow army.

I don't think they thought they actually would have to fight. I think all they thought they would have to do is roll into towns and people would give up before few if any shots were fired.

But they did have to fight. There was a batch of tanks, like 58 of them, that were destroyed a couple days ago, they should not have been destroyed by the force that attacked them. Something was very wrong about that. I think many of those tanks didn't have full crews, and no way to fight, so that's why they were lost so easily when they encountered a fight with what looked like an inferior force.

I think once that happened they were committed into the theater and had no recourse but to reconfigure themselves to fight. So they picked up those stray people from those under maned vehicles that didn't have a full crew to fully crew as many vehicles as they could so they could fight.

Thus all those abandon vehicles on the roads. And a much smaller Russian Army running around not doing so well.

That's my wild guess as to what is happening, because something weird is happening that needs to be explained.

Gezus, is that true?

 

[SamAndreas]

Gezus, is that true?

Was true, I don't know if it's still true.

"After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russian tank and motor rifle divisions were reduced to near-cadre state, many being designated "bases for storage of weapons and equipment" (Russian acronym BKhVT). These bases, or "cadre" divisions, were equipped with all the heavy armaments of a full-strength motor-rifle or tank division, while having only skeleton personnel strength, as low as 500 personnel. The officers and men of a cadre division focus primarily on maintaining the equipment in working condition. During wartime mobilization, such a division would be reinforced up to full manpower strength; however, in peacetime, a cadre division is unfit for any combat."

Division (military) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

What I know is still true is that they have large arrays of old surplus equipment left over from the Soviet times. Their army is machinery rich while at the same time being manpower poor. I would think the temptation to use that odd state of affairs to their advantage would be something that they would think of.

During World War II we had plenty of people, but were short of having enough armored machines, so we would use rubber inflatable mock tanks to pretend that we had larger forces in the field than we actually had. So this kind of ruse is not unheard of.

However the Russians have a surplus of actual armor, but not enough people, and that is not they way it is usually done. Putting excess machines out there to pretend there are more people in them is a bit unusual.

I'm trying to find an explanations of those weird details that don't otherwise fit. Its weird that those tanks were destroyed a couple days ago, that there's all that abandon machinery left around, and even that convoy today was acting weird the way they moved through the country without scouting or acting like an armored division ought to act during a war. Like maybe all they can do with that column is drive it there in straight line because for the most part drivers are all they have. Maybe a few tanks and self propelled artillery machines have a full crew in case they have to fire a few shells to make it look good. They're not acting like a proper fighting force moving through enemy county under threat.

 

[MT15]

More than one analyst has surmised Putin is baiting NATO with that ridiculous convoy. Bunched all together and moving very slowly. They think he feels that if NATO would attack the sitting ducks, which could be done in like 15 minutes with some jets, then the sentiment in Russia will turn toward him again and it will give him justification for what he wants to do.

 

[MT15]

Also-been reading (admitted unconfirmed) reports of tanks driving off of narrow bridges, thus being disabled, and the driver (singular) calling local authorities for help, thus being captured. Which conforms to what Sam is saying that these vehicles aren’t fully manned, and making people wonder if that’s not a convenient way for these soldiers to get out of the fight that they don’t want.

 

[UriUT]

I saw an interview of a pentagon spokesperson state yesterday, and a tweet confirmed it this morning, that the Russians have moved 75% of the deployed troops into Ukraine, and that a very small % of those have actually engaged. I don't have any knowledge of their military organization, but that tells me that they are very much capable of encirclement. Quite possibly once the other cities fall. It's very ominous, no matter how many symbolic victories the Ukrainians and the West have. I don't think we're going to remove sanctions, so this will be a pyrrhic victory for the Russians.

 

[SamAndreas]

Also-been reading (admitted unconfirmed) reports of tanks driving off of narrow bridges, thus being disabled, and the driver (singular) calling local authorities for help, thus being captured. Which conforms to what Sam is saying that these vehicles aren’t fully manned, and making people wonder if that’s not a convenient way for these soldiers to get out of the fight that they don’t want.

Thanks for bring that up, I hadn't seen that report.

 

[UriUT]

They don't have food and fuel. 80% committed. I saw a vid of some russian soldiers (unconfirmed) who displayed very expired mre. 2015 i believe?

Time is what the ukrainians need to buy

 

[SystemShock]

Can you imagine this going down with Trump in the WH?

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Can you imagine this going down with Trump in the WH?

It makes you wonder if the GOP would keep kowtowing to him as he would sit idly by and let Putin invade without lifting a finger.

 

[UriUT]

Can you imagine this going down with Trump in the WH?

I can, and it scares me as a believer in liberal democracy, and of just plain decency.

 

[UriUT]

Let's hope for more desertion. Ukraine's offered what I think is equivalent to 57k if soldiers desert.

The sooner Russia and Putin collapse, the sooner the barbarism and senseless deaths stop.

 

[UriUT]

It makes you wonder if the GOP would keep kowtowing to him as he would sit idly by and let Putin invade without lifting a finger.

Is this before or after the Russian money stop flowing?

 

[UriUT]

Putin s feeling the pressure.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Article on trump and Ukraine
======================
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine getting more horrific, Donald Trump and his allies are frantically erasing the truth about Trump’s relations with Ukraine.

Trump absurdly claims that as president, he stood strong behind Ukraine and NATO, while his spinners comically downplay his corrupt and deeply malevolent betrayal of our ally.


The obvious rejoinder to this spin is that Trump got impeached for withholding military aid to strong-arm Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into manufacturing propaganda to help Trump’s reelection. This came even as Zelensky pleaded for help against Russian aggression, which the world is now witnessing unfold in all its horror.


But the focus only on that episode risks oversimplifying the story. It casts this recent history as being mainly about Trump’s personal corruption, i.e., his effort to use foreign policy to smear his campaign opponent……

All this is particularly pressing, given that Trump is likely to run for president again. The simplest way to illustrate this is by recalling five other things Trump did with regard to Zelensky and Ukraine:

1. Spread propaganda about Ukrainian interference in the 2016 election


As early as 2017, Trump began voicing the conspiracy theory that Ukraine, not Russia, had interfered in the 2016 presidential election. This was one of the things Trump pressured Zelensky to “investigate” while withholding military aid.


It’s complete nonsense, and crucially, it echoed Russian propaganda that had a geopolitical purpose. Putin himself reportedly put this idea in Trump’s head. And Fiona Hill, then a top national security official, testified that this propaganda helped Russia by deflecting attention from Russia’s own interference in 2016 and by dividing the United States from an ally.


And don’t forget: At the time, some Republican lawmakers lent support to Trump’s lie about Ukraine, thus advancing “Russian interests,” as Hill put it.


2. Ousted the well-regarded U.S. ambassador to Ukraine


Trump pushed out Marie Yovanovitch in 2019, after his lawyer Rudolph W. Giuliani mounted a smear campaign against her. Yovanovitch was perceived as disloyal to Trump.


Here again the move apparently advanced Russia’s geopolitical interests at Ukraine’s expense. As the House impeachment report details, it hampered the United States’ ability to develop relations with Ukraine amid a “period of transition” — Zelensky was then a new president — and amid efforts to fend off Russian aggression………

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/01/vindman-zelensky-ukraine-putin/

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

As for the other penalties that the administration imposed on Russia, Bolton alleged that Trump often resisted those measures and demonstrated a lack of knowledge of the region.


“But in almost every case, the sanctions were imposed with Trump complaining about it and saying we were being too hard. The fact is he barely knew where Ukraine was. He once asked John Kelly, his second chief of staff, if Finland were a part of Russia. It’s just not accurate to say that Trump’s behavior somehow deterred the Russians,” he added.

John Bolton Claims Trump Did Little to Deter Putin: ‘Barely Knew Where Ukraine Was’ | National Review

The former national security adviser said Trump resisted the sanctions his administration imposed on Russia.

www.nationalreview.com

Reminds me of:

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

"...................He once asked John Kelly, his second chief of staff, if Finland were a part of Russia..........."