Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[el caliente]

 

[SystemShock]

hmm

Well, if someone knows about being irresponsible, dangerous, and unhinged, it is Taylor-Greene.

This is the same person who runs gun giveaways, and sends out "stop socialism" propaganda holding sniper and assault rifles.

 

[el caliente]

 

[GrandAdmiral]

That was hilarious. I was sitting here wondering why the Kyiv editor was just sitting there saying nothing. I should recognized the "Ron Paul" guy had a strong accent.

 

[zztop]

A person went out and asked Russian citizens what their thoughts were



also



I've read something that distribution of "fake news" about russian military will get you 15 years in jail, and anti-war protests can land you in jail for 5 years.

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

I've read something that distribution of "fake news" about russian military will get you 15 years in jail, and anti-war protests can land you in jail for 5 years.

 

[DaveXA]

I'll just say that while I agree with Graham's sentiment about taking out Putin, it's irresponsible for a US Congressman to be openly calling for the assassination of Putin. It's an unnecessary escalation of rhetoric, and drastically narrows our options in dealing with Russia in regards to diplomacy.

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

I'll just say that while I agree with Graham's sentiment about taking out Putin, it's irresponsible for a US Congressman to be openly calling for the assassination of Putin. It's an unnecessary escalation of rhetoric, and drastically narrows our options in dealing with Russia in regards to diplomacy.

Dumb comment to make out loud, in public, and by a Congressman. Graham has a tendency to say, and believe, dumb things which is one of the reasons I never understood why McCain was so close to him.

 

[SystemShock]

Dumb comment to make out loud, in public, and by a Congressman.

Why? And not generally speaking or in principle... Why is it a dumb comment to make in this particular situation? Are we afraid Graham is going to hurt Putin's feelings?

 

[samiam5211]

Why? And not generally speaking or in principle... Why is it a dumb comment to make in this particular situation? Are we afraid Graham is going to hurt Putin's feelings?

I think a government official calling for the assassination of another country's leader is a violation of international law.

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

Why? And not generally speaking or in principle... Why is it a dumb comment to make in this particular situation? Are we afraid Graham is going to hurt Putin's feelings?

I think @DaveXA explained that eloquently in his post and @samiam5211 made another good point.
.

 

[DaveXA]

Why? And not generally speaking or in principle... Why is it a dumb comment to make in this particular situation? Are we afraid Graham is going to hurt Putin's feelings?

Because we're not just talking about assassinating Putin, we're talking about assassinating the President of a nuclear armed rival. It's a bad idea for a US Congressman, period.

And I agree with Sam's point as well.

He can express that sentiment in private, but not publicly while he's a sitting US Congressman.

 

[SystemShock]

I think a government official calling for the assassination of another country's leader is a violation of international law.

Which law is that? Are we going to start caring about international law now?

And it's not like Graham suggested someone take out Boris Johnson in the UK.

 

[el caliente]

It’s odd to me, You and I (and large groups of the population) can say that we want Putin dead, because we don’t represent the general public. It’s when elected officials (that represent the general public) say they want Putin dead that it’s a problem.

I do wonder if elected officials in other countries have wished death upon our leaders. I can’t imagine they haven’t, it’s just how many of us care?

 

[samiam5211]

Which law is that? Are we going to start caring about international law now?

And it's not like Graham suggested someone take out Boris Johnson in the UK.

Assassination in the Law of War - Lieber Institute West Point

Hays Parks emphasized that "assassination" is a legal term of art that takes on different meanings in the context of peace and war.

lieber.westpoint.edu

 

[SystemShock]

Assassination in the Law of War - Lieber Institute West Point

Hays Parks emphasized that "assassination" is a legal term of art that takes on different meanings in the context of peace and war.

lieber.westpoint.edu

Long article. Which one is the law?

 

[DaveXA]

Long article. Which one is the law?

Last sentence in passage below prohibits any individual acting on behalf of the US government from engaging or conspiring to engage in political assassination.

In 1977, following revelations of U.S. lethal targeting operations and ensuing Church (Senate) and the Pike (House) Committee hearings, President Gerald Ford issued Executive Order 11,905. The order prohibited Executive Branch personnel from engaging in, or conspiring to engage in, political assassination. Subsequent administrations continued the ban. Four years later, President Regan issued Executive Order 12,333, which, as amended, remains in effect today. It contains the same prohibition, although it limits application to individuals “acting on behalf of” the U.S. government.

 

[samiam5211]

Long article. Which one is the law?

There were several laws/treaties/rules it could violate, the article was too long to just link, but I was having too much trouble quoting parts of it on my iPhone.