Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (2 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[Optimus Prime]

I don't know about the other two, but Gosar is so deplorable that even his own family made a commercial that spoke out against him and urged people to vote for his opponent

More on Gosar
==============

Last spring, Republican Rep. Paul Gosar and a small group of volunteers traveled to the southern border city of San Luis, Arizona, to clean up the city's trash.

The small group included a blogger who has praised Nazi Germany; a Gosar-endorsed congressional candidate who would be removed from Twitter for calling for executing election officials; and a speaker removed from the 2020 Republican National Convention for sharing an antisemitic conspiracy theory describing an elaborate Jewish plan for global domination.

Since 2018, when Gosar dined with a European extremist who called for banning Islam from Europe, the far-right Arizona lawmaker has boosted the profiles of local antisemites, attended a conference organized by a prominent White nationalist, and repeatedly shared content from a Holocaust denial website.

Gosar is now facing scrutiny over his ties to extremists after speaking via video at a conference organized by White nationalist Nick Fuentes. Gosar spoke in person at the event last year. And both Gosar, and his colleague Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, who spoke in person at the conference this year, have been condemned by Republican leaders over their appearances.......

MSN

 

[SamAndreas]

More on Gosar
==============

Last spring, Republican Rep. Paul Gosar and a small group of volunteers traveled to the southern border city of San Luis, Arizona, to clean up the city's trash.

The small group included a blogger who has praised Nazi Germany; a Gosar-endorsed congressional candidate who would be removed from Twitter for calling for executing election officials; and a speaker removed from the 2020 Republican National Convention for sharing an antisemitic conspiracy theory describing an elaborate Jewish plan for global domination.

Since 2018, when Gosar dined with a European extremist who called for banning Islam from Europe, the far-right Arizona lawmaker has boosted the profiles of local antisemites, attended a conference organized by a prominent White nationalist, and repeatedly shared content from a Holocaust denial website.

Gosar is now facing scrutiny over his ties to extremists after speaking via video at a conference organized by White nationalist Nick Fuentes. Gosar spoke in person at the event last year. And both Gosar, and his colleague Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, who spoke in person at the conference this year, have been condemned by Republican leaders over their appearances.......

MSN

It's,,, I mean he's, received considerable push back from within his own family, they've just about disowned him.

 

[insidejob]

There is no way back. [Part 1]

If we want the war to stay in Ukraine, we have to win it in Ukraine.

www.greatpower.us

Part one of an eventual three.

If we want the war with Putin to end, we must see why the Ukrainians have defied all expectations — as a government, as an army, as a nation, as a people — and learn to think as they do. We must learn to see not only the risk, but the opportunities that are born from taking those risks that would otherwise not have existed.

 

[SamAndreas]

There is no way back. [Part 1]

If we want the war to stay in Ukraine, we have to win it in Ukraine.

www.greatpower.us

Part one of an eventual three.

I largely agree with Molly McKew's assessment.

I've been posting most of my posts about this topic at the main board. last night I saw enough of Putin's propaganda machine and his "Hitler" youth demonstration to convince me of McKew's assessment that this war will not go away, Putin will not go away.

We're going to have to deal with him sooner of later. We need to enter the conflict at a time of our choosing and achieve some measure of strategic surprise. Something Putin failed to achieve.

His failure to achieve that is why there is an opportunity for us to still act in the coming days, because that is the reason that the Ukraine has survived thus far.

One thing about McKey's analysis I would like to point out is that she might be unaware or overlooking preparations for such a surprise being in the works by our military. My thoughts on that are that we'll know about that 24 to 48 hours after events such as that are set in motion. There will be shock and awe.

I want to show you the video that most moves me toward a position of realizing that this will not go away an we're going to have to eventually enter the fray:

Turn the volume up as far as it will go. This video and the otherwise already known events together will demonstrate that in a sense of minding the lessons of history so that we will not have to repeat them again, that right now the situation is quite like it was in 1936 when Germany entered the Rhineland and advance positioned his forces on the French border.

What you will see in this video is a scary demonstration of Putin's "Hitler youth." He has a personality cult ongoing and growing in his country, growing so fast that we must act. A personality cult like what we've seen before and have regretted for not having acted to stop when Germany entered the Rhineland in 1936 with Hitler's armed forces.

 

[insidejob]

Gotta love the state sponsored street signs that are written in Russian as instructions for the Russians as they invade.

"Go straight? fork yourself. Take a right? Yeah, still fork yourself. Take a left? Yep, fork yourself. Turn around and go home? fork yourself on the way out."

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

Russian gymnast criticized for ‘shocking behavior’ after wearing ‘Z’ symbol next to Ukrainian athlete | CNN

The International Gymnastics Federation (FIG) has criticized the “shocking behavior” of Russian athlete Ivan Kuliak at a gymnastics World Cup event in Doha, Qatar.

www.cnn.com

 

[MT15]

 

[zztop]

Ukraine says it killed another high-ranking Russian military leader

Vitaliy Gerasimov, a major general of the Russian Army, “was eliminated” near Kharkiv, according to Ukraine’s defense intelligence directorate.

www.militarytimes.com

 

[UriUT]

There is no way back. [Part 1]

If we want the war to stay in Ukraine, we have to win it in Ukraine.

www.greatpower.us

Part one of an eventual three.

Great read. Though I have to disagree with the conclusion. The risk is there for escalation beyond a regional war whether we believe Putin's hypnosis or not. The price for nuclear escalation has to be part of the calculus, whether or not if we can stomach countless deaths of innocent lives. We simply cannot risk the world's extermination. Putin clearly miscalculated the sentiments of the Ukrainians, and I wouldn't want us to underestimate the resolve of Russians' will to defend their nationalism either. Russians truly believe that they are on the right side of history here.

And sanctions do work. Iran was forced into negotiation with the west regarding their nuclear ambitions. Unfortunately it takes time. And who's to say the Ukrainians can or cannot win. Their strategic emphasis of destroying all supply lines have been effective. That too is a game of attrition, similarly to sanctions. Unfortunately, we need to endure. The West' message has been clear and strong. When the Russian economy is in shambles, and their troops are isolated in the bitter cold, starving, and lacking in ammunition, reality may set in on the Russian populace...I have my doubts on whether that actually matters but I'll leave those thoughts for another time. What I fear most, though, is our resolve. Will the price of oil deter us?

And yes, this invasion has set a no way back path. But that isn't all bad. The Germans have decided to rearm. Europe has woken up to Russia's divisive propaganda into their society and ours. Liberal democracy seems revitalized. Thanks to the will of the Ukrainians, our Joan d'Arc.

 

[UriUT]

I largely agree with Molly McKew's assessment.

I've been posting most of my posts about this topic at the main board. last night I saw enough of Putin's propaganda machine and his "Hitler" youth demonstration to convince me of McKew's assessment that this war will not go away, Putin will not go away.

We're going to have to deal with him sooner of later. We need to enter the conflict at a time of our choosing and achieve some measure of strategic surprise. Something Putin failed to achieve.

His failure to achieve that is why there is an opportunity for us to still act in the coming days, because that is the reason that the Ukraine has survived thus far.

One thing about McKey's analysis I would like to point out is that she might be unaware or overlooking preparations for such a surprise being in the works by our military. My thoughts on that are that we'll know about that 24 to 48 hours after events such as that are set in motion. There will be shock and awe.

I want to show you the video that most moves me toward a position of realizing that this will not go away an we're going to have to eventually enter the fray:

Turn the volume up as far as it will go. This video and the otherwise already known events together will demonstrate that in a sense of minding the lessons of history so that we will not have to repeat them again, that right now the situation is quite like it was in 1936 when Germany entered the Rhineland and advance positioned his forces on the French border.

What you will see in this video is a scary demonstration of Putin's "Hitler youth." He has a personality cult ongoing and growing in his country, growing so fast that we must act. A personality cult like what we've seen before and have regretted for not having acted to stop when Germany entered the Rhineland in 1936 with Hitler's armed forces.

This guy doesn't believe that that propaganda campaign is all that impressive. Though, i believe he used facebook likes as a gauge....facebooks is banned? I don't know.

 

[UriUT]

Ukraine says it killed another high-ranking Russian military leader

Vitaliy Gerasimov, a major general of the Russian Army, “was eliminated” near Kharkiv, according to Ukraine’s defense intelligence directorate.

www.militarytimes.com

Oh the shirte stain that is revealed of the Russian logistics from this death is amazingly interesting.

 

[UriUT]

This put a smile to my heart knowing that braggarts, who's only mission will be to terrorize defenseless civilians once the fighting ends is no more.

 

[MT15]

This is amazing:

 

[UriUT]

Continuing on with the propaganda from Russia, reuters got duped.

 

[MT15]

This guy doesn't believe that that propaganda campaign is all that impressive. Though, i believe he used facebook likes as a gauge....facebooks is banned? I don't know.

I’m also inclined to think this seems like a desperate attempt to influence young people. Parts of that video seemed to be possibly computer generated to me. Idk, just something about it that didn’t ring true.

 

[UriUT]

I’m also inclined to think this seems like a desperate attempt to influence young people. Parts of that video seemed to be possibly computer generated to me. Idk, just something about it that didn’t ring true.

Oh yeah, when I first saw that vid, it mentioned that some cancer kids(?) were brought out to form that Z? what hospital or medical care workers would subject patients through that? I sense it is more a desperation move. One in a series of poking a finger into many leaks in the dam.

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

Great read. Though I have to disagree with the conclusion. The risk is there for escalation beyond a regional war whether we believe Putin's hypnosis or not. The price for nuclear escalation has to be part of the calculus, whether or not if we can stomach countless deaths of innocent lives. We simply cannot risk the world's extermination. Putin clearly miscalculated the sentiments of the Ukrainians, and I wouldn't want us to underestimate the resolve of Russians' will to defend their nationalism either. .................

"Former NATO commander Wesley Clark explains Ukraine war


Q: Would Putin use a nuclear weapon?

A: If he was losing, I think he might. And if we think there’s a chance a guy would use a nuclear weapon against us, I guess we just need to give up on the concept of extended deterrence. Why would we want to defend Estonia if Putin might want to use a nuclear weapon? Is Estonia worth it? You say it’s NATO, but the cold, hard reality is Putin can move into Estonia and take control before we can make up our mind what to do. Or Taiwan — what if China says, “You come into Taiwan again, we’re going to use a nuclear weapon.” The Chinese have a lot of people, they have a lot of nuclear weapons. What if North Korea says, “You hold another exercise, we’re going to use a nuclear weapon.” Say [to North Korea] “Oh, we’re going to obliterate you.” “No, you’re not going to obliterate us, we can attack the United States — now.” What if Iran says it? That’s the answer to it. It was easy to be the world’s hyperpower when we were going against Libya, Iraq and Syria. The United States has to recalibrate its understanding, leadership and processes to work in this new area or we will lose the rules-based international system, which we’re proud to have established after World War II and which we established by using the concept of extended deterrence.

Q: The ultimate question is: Does the West stand by and watch innocent people slaughtered?

A: I think that’s the conundrum that the administration is facing. What can we do without provoking a red line? And the answer to that is: It doesn’t just depend on us. It depends on Putin. I’d say it’s more than a little unpredictable."
https://nypost.com/2022/03/02/former...r-no-fly-zone/

 

[BullSheetBuddha]