Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[insidejob]

The Bulwark Goes to Hollywood | Substack

Sonny Bunch interviews the people with their finger on the pulse of the entertainment industry. Click to read The Bulwark Goes to Hollywood, a Substack publication.

bulwarkhollywood.thebulwark.com

There's a link to a podcast with an interview with the film's director that everyone should listen to.

 

[insidejob]

Speaking of parroting dangerous Russian propaganda, the right is now pushing this complete fallacy, and it includes Republican politicians who have to know better. It’s beyond irresponsible from them. It’s dangerous and anti-American from Tucker.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/10/jennifer-griffin-sean-hannity-ukraine-bioweapons/

“A virulent claim is circulating in right-wing media and among some Republicans: The United States might be working on biolabs in Ukraine. This assertion, which echoes Russian propaganda and implies that the United States and Ukraine are collaborating on something nefarious and dangerous, has been sharply refuted by Biden officials and independent experts.

But now someone who works for Fox News has also challenged the claim: national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin, who ventured into Sean Hannity’s lion’s den and did so to his face.
Griffin’s exchange with Hannity is remarkable on its own. But it raises a question: While this might be expected from some in right-wing media, why are Republican lawmakers echoing it?”

For some on the right, it’s almost as if typical partisan zeal to undermine the Biden administration has crossed into something much darker, at a moment when the stakes could not be higher.

I'd agree with the article's conclusion.

 

[Optimus Prime]

From Bolton
==============

John Bolton, who served as President Donald Trump's national security advisor, on Wednesday said that Russian President Vladimir Putin didn't invade Ukraine while Trump was in office because "Putin saw Trump doing a lot of his work for him."

Bolton pointed to Trump's outspoken criticism of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the military and diplomatic alliance established in the wake of World War II.

"I think one of the reasons that Putin did not move during Trump's term in office was he saw the president's hostility of NATO. It was widely reported in American media," Bolton said during an interview with SiriusXM's Julie Mason. "And to Putin's mind, it's a binary proposition: a weaker NATO is a stronger Russia."

Bolton went on, "Putin saw Trump doing a lot of his work for him, and thought, maybe in a second term, Trump would make good on his desire to get out of NATO, and then it would just ease Putin's path just that much more."..............

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[MT15]

Hope these are both true. Feel the first one is a lot more solid than the second.

 

[superchuck500]

Nearly half of Trump voters (2020) think Putin is doing a better job leading his country than Biden.

 

[UriUT]

Russia warns of ‘military measures’ over US-funded lab in Georgia

The chairman of the Russian Duma’s Defence Committee said the Lugar Centre in Tbilisi was ‘designing bio-weapons and viruses’.

oc-media.org

Another day another recycled bull crap accusation from the past.

 

[UriUT]

Great thread explaining Russia’s failure. Of particular interesting is the analogy to the economy of avocados when the mafia is involved. They have little expertise and so chooses commodities that aren’t complex…ie avocados, natural gas, oil, etc.

 

[Sandman]

Nearly half of Trump voters (2020) think Putin is doing a better job leading his country than Biden.

I wonder if they truly believe this or they feel the need to respond this way to try and make Biden look bad. No reasonable person could look at what is happening in Russia and say that Putin is doing a better job than Biden. There are people that cannot give any credit to a president in the opposing party. Sometimes the people who we do not agree with overall get it right sometimes. I just don't get the thought process of those that cannot give kudos when earned.

I am no fan of Trump, but I can acknowledge when he got things right. For instance, Operation Warp Speed--well done. Good job. Getting the US out of Afghanistan. Again, 20 years was long enough. Good job.

Acknowledging when he does well does not weaken my position on him overall. Rather, it strengthens it. Right now, in the Republican party just can't acknowledge when Biden does something well, or at least when he is obviously doing something better than Putin. Honestly, it makes it easier to disregard any of their opinions.

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

Nearly half of Trump voters (2020) think Putin is doing a better job leading his country than Biden.

I betcha that greater than 90% of congressional republicans feel the same way.

 

[insidejob]

Hope these are both true. Feel the first one is a lot more solid than the second.

So that's why the kraken exchange was down for like an hour yesterday and wouldn't let me sell the LTC I transferred to their exchange to buy XMR. They said it was down for maintenance, but they never go offline in the middle of business/trading hours. They do their updates overnight in the US from what I can tell in my experience.

That reminds me...I've got some stuff to do.

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

 

[superchuck500]

I wonder if they truly believe this or they feel the need to respond this way to try and make Biden look bad. No reasonable person could look at what is happening in Russia and say that Putin is doing a better job than Biden.

I think for many it's a situation where they don't "truly believe" anything based on its own merits. They see everything through the lens of their American political tribalism, so the part of the thought process where they could actually "truly believe" that some facet of US policy under Biden is appropriate has been swallowed up by the emotional satisfaction of believing everything Biden is associated with is bad for America. Add in what is now a fairly well reinforced positive view of Putin in those circles, it's not that hard to see that many of them probably truly believe that Putin is doing a better job for Russia than Biden is for the US . . . for whatever that's worth.

 

[CoolBrees]

I am sorry, but only 47% of R’s thinking Putin is doing a better job than Biden is the best evidence yet that the country is behind him (at least on this).

More than 47% of R’s think Obama’s birth certificate is fake to this day. They overwhelmingly like the ACA but HATE Obamacare. And nobody bats an eye.

So a minority of them saying that a ruthless dictator who just invaded a non-aggressive sovereign nation is doing better than the President, I call that overwhelming bipartisan support.

 

[zztop]

US slashes Russia trade status, bans its alcohol and seafood

President Joe Biden announced Friday that along with the European Union and the Group of Seven countries, the U.S. will revoke “most favored nation” trade status for Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

apnews.com

The broad trade shift, which revokes the “most favored nation” status for Russia, is being taken in coordination with the European Union and Group of Seven countries.

“The free world is coming together to confront Putin,” Biden said from the Roosevelt Room of the White House. He also said countries were adding new names to a list of Russian oligarchs who are facing sanctions, and the U.S. is cutting the flow of high-end American products such as expensive watches, cars and clothing.

 

[MT15]

Send their spoiled children back to Russia immediately. I’m tired of seeing them all over social media in tropical locations complaining. They should be expelled from whatever country they are inhabiting.

 

[Sandman]

I think for many it's a situation where they don't "truly believe" anything based on its own merits. They see everything through the lens of their American political tribalism, so the part of the thought process where they could actually "truly believe" that some facet of US policy under Biden is appropriate has been swallowed up by the emotional satisfaction of believing everything Biden is associated with is bad for America. Add in what is now a fairly well reinforced positive view of Putin in those circles, it's not that hard to see that many of them probably truly believe that Putin is doing a better job for Russia than Biden is for the US . . . for whatever that's worth.

I hear you, but here is an example of what I am seeing. A poll asks a couple of questions: (1) Do you approve the decisions Biden is making on Ukraine, and (2) do you approve Biden’s handling of Ukraine.

The two should mirror each other, but they don’t. Look at the Republicans. Basically, they really can’t think of anything he is doing wrong, but the knee-jerk reaction is to say “he is doing it bad” because that is what they are supposed to say. It is freaking pathetic.

 

[MT15]

There is a difference in independents as well, though, and even democrats registered 10% “not sure” for the second statement. I wonder if there was something about the construct of the survey? Some sort of order of the statements or something in the other statements to cause this?

 

[Dragon]

There is a difference in independents as well, though, and even democrats registered 10% “not sure” for the second statement. I wonder if there was something about the construct of the survey? Some sort of order of the statements or something in the other statements to cause this?

This. My husband works for the danish national institute of statistics and his comment is that depending on how you frame your questions you can almost certainly get a survey to show almost anything you would like it to show.