Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[Dragon]

I do think however - staying on topic - that the invasion of Ukraine will be a major turning point in European history. EU will have to finally grow up and hopefully get to the point where they understand that we need to work together for a mutual future, instead of keep bikering over minor details.

 

[MT15]

Don’t know if this is true or not, but wouldn’t be surprised. Of course Putin is the only one to blame for his colossal blunder with the invasion:

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

Don’t know if this is true or not, but wouldn’t be surprised. Of course Putin is the only one to blame for his colossal blunder with the invasion:

'

Putin reportedly placed two FSB heads under house arrest, asked his DefMin to make military deployments on Russia's western borders - The Romania Journal

Russian President Vladimir Putin has “beheaded” the foreign intelligence department of the Federal Security Service (aka FSB) and put the chief and the deputy chief under house arrest, according to sources in Andrei Soldatov, an investigative journalist and expert in the Russian secret...

www.romaniajournal.ro

 

[zztop]

(if) Russia attacks convoys, whose countries are aligned with NATO... I guess that'll pull most of the EU into war?

► Russia's deputy foreign minister warned Saturday that convoys transporting foreign weapons into Ukraine will become “legitimate targets” for attacks.

also sadly:

► Ukraine's Foreign Ministry said Russian forces shelled a mosque in Mariupol sheltering more than 80 children and adults.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[superchuck500]

(if) Russia attacks convoys, whose countries are aligned with NATO... I guess that'll pull most of the EU into war?

► Russia's deputy foreign minister warned Saturday that convoys transporting foreign weapons into Ukraine will become “legitimate targets” for attacks.

also sadly:

► Ukraine's Foreign Ministry said Russian forces shelled a mosque in Mariupol sheltering more than 80 children and adults.

Lavrov says a lot of things but I don’t think it means that a Russian attack on a convoy means this escalates to war with NATO - if such an attack happened I think the response would depend on the facts (most importantly where the attack happened). Something being a target and something getting attacked are two different things. This just seems like Russian talk to me.

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

Of course, they will fall for anything!!! Hell, their whole ethos is the result of old Soviet PSYOPS.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Lavrov says a lot of things but I don’t think it means that a Russian attack on a convoy means this escalates to war with NATO - if such an attack happened I think the response would depend on the facts (most importantly where the attack happened). Something being a target and something getting attacked are two different things. This just seems like Russian talk to me.

Exactly. They will keep rattling the saber and the West will continue to ignore them. There is nothing Russian can do short of launching nukes. And given Putin is Putin, there's nothing the West can do to placate him such that we could guarantee no nukes would be launched.

 

[MT15]

Guys - this is a great piece that Tom references here:



Here are the main points:

I’ll stick my neck out and make several prognostications:

1. Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
2. The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.
3. There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.
4. The United Nations Security Council has proven once again to be useless. The only helpful thing was the General Assembly vote, which helps to identify the world’s bad or prevaricating actors.
5. The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone or help transfer Polish MiGs were both good ones; they've kept their heads during a very emotional time. It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all the obvious escalatory possibilities. The Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuing supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, comms equipment, and intel sharing. I assume that Ukrainian forces are already being vectored by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine.

 

[MT15]

I also read it is assumed that US intelligence is feeding the Ukrainian army the locations of Russian generals, which is why their snipers have killed 3 of them so far.

 

[MT15]

Another tweet from this guy:

 

[MT15]

Exactly. They will keep rattling the saber and the West will continue to ignore them. There is nothing Russian can do short of launching nukes. And given Putin is Putin, there's nothing the West can do to placate him such that we could guarantee no nukes would be launched.

Tom Nichols had a simple tweet responding to the Russian threat to hit US supply lines inside Ukraine: “Noted. Bring it.” IIRC.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

So an interesting thing I was mulling over and surprised it hasn't been suggested by anyone in Congress yet...

Art. I, Sec. 8 of the Constitution allows Congress, among a variety of other enumerated powers, to "grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal." It is a somewhat dated concept used in the Age of Sail where governments would grant privateers the right to engage in combat and capture enemy vessels. Although the practice was largely abolished in the mid-19th century via international treaty, the U.S. was not a signatory to it.

Interestingly enough, Ron Paul tried to revive the practice after the September 11th attacks. The text of one such proposed bill can be found here: https://www.congress.gov/bill/107th-congress/house-bill/3076/text

In a nutshell, it sought to allocate $40 billion into a fund and gave the President authority to issue bounties against bin Laden and Al Qaeda. Conceivably similar legislation could be written with sufficient finesse so as not to overtly implicate Russia but be directed against those who perpetrate war crimes (as defined by international law) in Ukraine during a specified time frame. Of course, Putin will view this as an act of war but he views everything as an act of war so who cares.

The U.S. is obviously pumping a lot of money directly to the Ukraine government but something like this would allow for paid mercenaries/third parties to be funded. Depending on how its worded it could also be used to pay hackers like Anonymous to perpetrate further cyber attacks (not that Anonymous is a centralized entity or would take the US's money, anyway... but maybe similar outfits/individuals).

Also, it's totally badass if the government started issuing Letters of Marque again!

 

[zztop]

American journalist is killed in Ukraine

Brent Renaud, a Peabody-winning filmmaker, was working on a project on the global refugee crisis when he was shot by Russian forces outside Kyiv.

www.politico.com

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Could not be anymore obvious that this woman is either: 1) Grifting to the Q-conspirators; or 2) actually on Putin's payroll.



Also bonus points for putting the onus on a ceasefire on anyone other than Russia who INVADED UKRAINE. "GUIZ, GUIZ, WHY DON'T THE JEWS SIT DOWN WITH HITLER AND HEAR HIM OUT?!?!"

 

[MT15]

Yeah, she and Tucker are just plain old Russian assets at this point. If they aren’t, they’re portraying Russian assets with great gusto.

 

[MT15]

Speaking of Russian assets, MAGA cult is full of them:

 

[insidejob]

I wonder if this would have been their reception in, say, Florida?