Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[SaintForLife]

Mearsheimer on the current state of the Ukraine war and where it goes.

 

[bird]

Mearsheimer on the current state of the Ukraine war and where it goes.

So, you have one opinion. What do YOU think should happen?

 

[LA - L.A.]

Mearsheimer on the current state of the Ukraine war and where it goes.

I've never seen so much panicked wish casting on so many issues. Putin's turned up his propaganda to 11 and some people are choosing to mainline it and then vomit it all over the rest of us.

 

[Bigdaddysaints]

So, you have one opinion. What do YOU think should happen?

he thinks Ukraine should agree to let Russia have what they have already taken. because he truly believes Russia only did this because of the USA and that Russia will not try this again and will be content..

 

[MT15]

Well, by that token shouldn’t Ukraine get to keep the Russian territory it has taken? I think they should, they didn’t start this. But they will finish it.

 

[efil4]

Mearsheimer on the current state of the Ukraine war and where it goes.

Lol. Not one single shred of evidence for any of his "thoughts". Every single comment he made in first 3 min was "I think".

He said balance of manpower to Russia
Weaponry UAF huge disadvantage
More soldiers and much better equipped. Yes sending men on assaults with 3 mags and a Moisin Nagant ww2 rifle is "better equipped". Dead Russians wearing addidas track suits and tennis shoes.
Casualties...his "sense" is Ukraine taking more than Russia.

Not a single thought or sense backed up with anything remotely close to support his stance.

But I did see this video came from Rumble, so facts don't matter to that audience. Which apparently includes you.

And not a word on the current UAF counter that has now occupied over 450sqM of Russia (Kursk oblast) guess this was older video or he purposefully avoided that.

 

[efil4]

Better equipped eh?

 

[efil4]

Guess he missed this map?

 

[Bigdaddysaints]

it sure would make the world a better place if Putin fell out of a window.
with Ukraine having successful offensive, Putin is looking more foolish and will for the first time has the pressure on him from populous..

 

[LA - L.A.]

Better equipped eh?

Ukraine is using highly trained, skilled, experienced, small, fast, flexible, and stealthy units to engage in search and destroy warfare more so than trench warfare, which is all the Russians know how to do and are currently built to do.

The Ukrainians are not fighting to control Russian territory by fortification, they are fighting to destroy and disrupt the Russian army to win the war of attrition. The logical place to wage that war is inside of Russian territory were Russian soldiers are not dug into heavily fortified defensive positions. The Russians have no choice but to move troops there to try to defend, which gives Ukraine several advantages inside of both Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine continues to out maneuver the Russians.

 

[LA - L.A.]

Guess he missed this map?

Ukranian troops are currently as about as close to Moscow as Russian troops are to Kyiv. I read that Putin is sending reinforcements from Moscow.

 

[efil4]

Ukranian troops are currently as about as close to Moscow as Russian troops are to Kyiv. I read that Putin is sending reinforcements from Moscow.

He has to. Which is lifting the vail of lies.

I suspect we will hear that Gerasimov will be relieved of duty at some point. But he knows everything since he part of the Fifth Column ( Putins inner inner circle) so relieving him will be tricky.

This is pulled from Telegram:

️ 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗧𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗺 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗹 𝗩𝗖𝗵𝗞-𝗢𝗚𝗣𝗨, 𝗰𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲𝘀, 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗲𝗳 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗳𝗳 𝗚𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘀𝗶𝗺𝗼𝘃 𝗸𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝘂𝗿𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮'𝘀 𝗞𝘂𝗿𝘀𝗸 𝗿𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗼𝗻:

"Two weeks ago, Lt. Gen. Esedulla Abachev, commander of the State Border Covering Group, deputy commander of the Leningrad Military District, reported to Valery Gerasimov about the preparation of the AFU for an invasion of Kursk region. In response, Gerasimov urged Abachev "not to spread panic" and "not to fall for the enemy's disinformation." Moreover, on the eve of the AFU offensive, Gerasimov withdrew forces and means from this area, which, in his opinion, were not needed there."

️ 𝗜𝗻 𝗮𝗱𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲, 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝘀𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝗲𝗹𝗴𝗼𝗿𝗼𝗱 𝗱𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻.

According to the VChK-OGPU source, before the attack, the border in Kursk region was held by: the 2nd Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, Special Forces Brigade from Pskov, Akhmat forces, mobilized, conscripts and even former prisoners.

Shortly before the offensive of the AFU, most of the trained soldiers were transferred to the Belgorod direction to help the "North" group advancing on Kharkiv

 

[MT15]

Made me smile:

 

[MT15]

Russia set a fire in a Ukrainian nuclear plant as a scare tactic. Desperation.

 

[Bigdaddysaints]

i wonder why the usual Putin sympathizers in this thread haven't made an appearance lately? all of a sudden they don't think ' just give up the land you lost peace talks' are a good idea.. lol

 

[efil4]

i wonder why the usual Putin sympathizers in this thread haven't made an appearance lately? all of a sudden they don't think ' just give up the land you lost peace talks' are a good idea.. lol

They now have a new calculus to contemplate....want Kursk back? Belgorod? Ok give up Crimea and Donbas.

 

[SaintForLife]

Good point. Why would Russia do that since they've occupied it for 2 years?

 

[Bigdaddysaints]

Good point. Why would Russia do that since they've occupied it for 2 years?

what MT15 said.. scare tactic.
most people do not know because the plant is cold shut down , that simply a fire won't cause a meltdown that's more possible while it's fully operational..