Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[DaveXA]

This organization certainly explains why the American right forged a much closer connection to Russia after the Cold War. It really doesn't get into this issue, but my sense is that Putin leveraged this new connection to ramp up the cyber wars of disinformation to sow division in American society.

Say what you wan about Putin, dude has been playing the long game, something our presidents have not been able to do very well regardless of party.

What's vile is that these people don't pay any attention to scripture or the life and beliefs of Jesus; it's just devolved to whatever their secular vision is "Christ's vision." It's brazenly Machiavellian.

And it underscores my conclusion that most organized religion will invariably connect itself to socio-economic elites and justify authoritarian, anti-democratic and oppressive forms of government regardless of the what it is.

Hard to play the long game in American politics in general and certainly even more difficult for US Presidents because they're in office from 4 to 8 years. Putin has been in office a total of over 20 years, with a break from 2008-2012. Poots can afford to play the long game. It's not like people are gonna march on the streets of Moscow to get Poots out of there. We all saw what happens when you attempt to organize a coup against Poots.

 

[RebSaint]

Hard to play the long game in American politics in general and certainly even more difficult for US Presidents because they're in office from 4 to 8 years. Putin has been in office a total of over 20 years, with a break from 2008-2012. Poots can afford to play the long game. It's not like people are gonna march on the streets of Moscow to get Poots out of there. We all saw what happens when you attempt to organize a coup against Poots.

Definitely agree, here and another fundamental weakness of democracies, especially in wartime. We can even go back further than when Putin was in power to see he was always committed to an authoritarian Russian state, regardless of the form it would take.

 

[SFIDC3]

And it underscores my conclusion that most organized religion will invariably connect itself to socio-economic elites and justify authoritarian, anti-democratic and oppressive forms of government regardless of the what it is.

Bingo.....the primary reason I believe organized religion does more harm than good.....

 

[efil4]

This organization certainly explains why the American right forged a much closer connection to Russia after the Cold War. It really doesn't get into this issue, but my sense is that Putin leveraged this new connection to ramp up the cyber wars of disinformation to sow division in American society.

Say what you wan about Putin, dude has been playing the long game, something our presidents have not been able to do very well regardless of party.

What's vile is that these people don't pay any attention to scripture or the life and beliefs of Jesus; it's just devolved to whatever their secular vision is "Christ's vision." It's brazenly Machiavellian.

And it underscores my conclusion that most organized religion will invariably connect itself to socio-economic elites and justify authoritarian, anti-democratic and oppressive forms of government regardless of the what it is.

Putin has had the luxury of playing the long game- just as any dictator would.

What makes his position easier, is that his main adversary head of state, has a max shelf life of 8 years and that he must win the electoral college vote even if his popular vote exceeds that of his/her opponent. So its not hard to aid in subverting an election via social media since you only have to target certain states, and then only 51% of the population of that state.

Id venture he and his fifth column know more about US elections than most US Citizens lol.

The main issue in the US has been the election cycles for Congress and White House. Staggered for a reason, but when faced with an adversary that has no expiration date and is all in to see you fall, makes things much harder to accomplish.

 

[nolaspe]

 

[SaintForLife]

In 2020, two dozen of major Ukrainian NGOs, all but one of which were funded by Western governments & foundations, stated that contrary to election promises by Zelensky any talks with Donbas separatists to implement Minsk agreements are unacceptable & are red lines after head of Zelensky administration supported creation of a consulting group with representatives of the separatist-controlled Donbas during Minsk talks concerning civil war in Donbas.

Western-funded NGOs in Ukraine also de facto supported violent overthrow of Ukrainian government during the Maidan by means of Maidan massacre, civil war in Donbas, far right in Ukraine, and other undemocratic and illiberal developments in Ukrainian politics since Maidan. But Western governments and foundations continued to financially support such NGOs in Ukraine and their undemocratic and illiberal actions. Such actions and calls by foreign-funded NGOs would be taboo for Western governments and foundations in their own countries.

Contrary to propaganda and political rhetoric by the Western and Ukrainian media, politicians, and self-proclaimed experts, this is another indication that the Western democratic governments de facto supported the violent overthrow of Ukrainian government during Maidan, civil war in Donbas, and other undemocratic and illiberal developments in Ukrainian politics since the Maidan. This was done for geopolitical reasons.

After this ultimatum by Western-funded NGOs, Zelensky abandoned any peace talks with Donbas separatists to end civil war in Donbas. "We demand from the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky to prevent the implementation of the signed decisions, to immediately abandon the idea of creating an Advisory Council in the mentioned format, to instruct the negotiators from Ukraine to act exclusively within the legal field and within the framework of their powers, and to make it impossible in the future to take steps that disturb the civil society of Ukraine, distance Ukraine from the establishment of peace, contradict the current legislation and national interests of Ukraine."

 

[DaveXA]

In 2020, two dozen of major Ukrainian NGOs, all but one of which were funded by Western governments & foundations, stated that contrary to election promises by Zelensky any talks with Donbas separatists to implement Minsk agreements are unacceptable & are red lines after head of Zelensky administration supported creation of a consulting group with representatives of the separatist-controlled Donbas during Minsk talks concerning civil war in Donbas.

Western-funded NGOs in Ukraine also de facto supported violent overthrow of Ukrainian government during the Maidan by means of Maidan massacre, civil war in Donbas, far right in Ukraine, and other undemocratic and illiberal developments in Ukrainian politics since Maidan. But Western governments and foundations continued to financially support such NGOs in Ukraine and their undemocratic and illiberal actions. Such actions and calls by foreign-funded NGOs would be taboo for Western governments and foundations in their own countries.

Contrary to propaganda and political rhetoric by the Western and Ukrainian media, politicians, and self-proclaimed experts, this is another indication that the Western democratic governments de facto supported the violent overthrow of Ukrainian government during Maidan, civil war in Donbas, and other undemocratic and illiberal developments in Ukrainian politics since the Maidan. This was done for geopolitical reasons.

After this ultimatum by Western-funded NGOs, Zelensky abandoned any peace talks with Donbas separatists to end civil war in Donbas. "We demand from the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky to prevent the implementation of the signed decisions, to immediately abandon the idea of creating an Advisory Council in the mentioned format, to instruct the negotiators from Ukraine to act exclusively within the legal field and within the framework of their powers, and to make it impossible in the future to take steps that disturb the civil society of Ukraine, distance Ukraine from the establishment of peace, contradict the current legislation and national interests of Ukraine."

 

[zztop]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-gunners-finally-get-shells-stop-russians-near-kharkiv-2024-05-21/

 

[SaintForLife]

- In 2003, US/EU-financed "NGOs" brought a pro-NATO/anti-Russia government to power in Georgia following the usual template for manipulating civil society google.com/amp/s/amp.theg…
Yet, the media still uncritically refers to it as a democratic revolution...
- After being armed and trained by the US, the US/EU-backed government in Georgia started a war with Russia in 2008 by attacking South Ossetia theguardian.com/world/2009/sep…
Yet, despite being verified by an independent EU fact-finding mission that Georgia started the war, the media still refers to it as an unprovoked attack by Russia...
- Georgia now attempts to pass a law for transparency over foreign funding of "NGOs" such as NED and Freedom House that are well-documented CIA cutouts. Foreign leaders from the West are now marching in their capital and threatening with sanctions if they pass the law on funding transparency. The Georgian PM fears the US is attempting to use these "NGOs" to push for another coup in Georgia and use his country as a second front against Russia thehill.com/policy/interna…
- How does the media report on this? The US/EU are saving Georgia from a "Russian law" that will place the country under Russian influence. Is there really not a single journalist in the MSM that will challenge this ridiculous framing before we destabilise another country, topple their government and expand the war?

Ian Traynor: US campaign behind the turmoil in Kiev

Analysis: Ukraine, traditionally passive in its politics, has been mobilised by young democracy activists and will never be the same again.

www.theguardian.com

Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili blamed for starting Russian war

EU investigation says Tbilisi launched indiscriminate assault on South Ossetia but both sides accused of breaking laws of war

www.theguardian.com

 

[SaintForLife]

The law passed, but they supposedly have the votes to override the veto.

 

[zztop]

This organization certainly explains why the American right forged a much closer connection to Russia after the Cold War. It really doesn't get into this issue, but my sense is that Putin leveraged this new connection to ramp up the cyber wars of disinformation to sow division in American society.

Say what you wan about Putin, dude has been playing the long game, something our presidents have not been able to do very well regardless of party.

In this topic,

Russia and the GOP

Steve Schmidt is on Twitter telling tales of just how much influence the Kremlin has wielded in GOP circles for over 20 years. Evidently Meghan McCain called him a pedophile again, and he snapped. It started with him relating how he had to handle her child-like outbursts during McCain’s...

madaboutpolitics.com

I posted about the playbook used. "ideological subversion" that can take decades, but what has happened to this country, seems very similar to what that KGB agent was talking about

 

[efil4]

In 2020, two dozen of major Ukrainian NGOs, all but one of which were funded by Western governments & foundations, stated that contrary to election promises by Zelensky any talks with Donbas separatists to implement Minsk agreements are unacceptable & are red lines after head of Zelensky administration supported creation of a consulting group with representatives of the separatist-controlled Donbas during Minsk talks concerning civil war in Donbas.

Western-funded NGOs in Ukraine also de facto supported violent overthrow of Ukrainian government during the Maidan by means of Maidan massacre, civil war in Donbas, far right in Ukraine, and other undemocratic and illiberal developments in Ukrainian politics since Maidan. But Western governments and foundations continued to financially support such NGOs in Ukraine and their undemocratic and illiberal actions. Such actions and calls by foreign-funded NGOs would be taboo for Western governments and foundations in their own countries.

Contrary to propaganda and political rhetoric by the Western and Ukrainian media, politicians, and self-proclaimed experts, this is another indication that the Western democratic governments de facto supported the violent overthrow of Ukrainian government during Maidan, civil war in Donbas, and other undemocratic and illiberal developments in Ukrainian politics since the Maidan. This was done for geopolitical reasons.

After this ultimatum by Western-funded NGOs, Zelensky abandoned any peace talks with Donbas separatists to end civil war in Donbas. "We demand from the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky to prevent the implementation of the signed decisions, to immediately abandon the idea of creating an Advisory Council in the mentioned format, to instruct the negotiators from Ukraine to act exclusively within the legal field and within the framework of their powers, and to make it impossible in the future to take steps that disturb the civil society of Ukraine, distance Ukraine from the establishment of peace, contradict the current legislation and national interests of Ukraine."

i guess Ivan missed this nugget:

Dangerous liaisons: New details of Latvian MEP Tatjana Ždanokaâs espionage for Russia

Accused of working with the Russian security services, Latvian MEP Tatjana Ždanoka mockingly donned sunglasses at a press conference â as if in a spy movie. The accusations wonât be laughed off that easily: Re:Baltica has obtained almost 19,000 of Ždanoka's e-mails detailing how she served the...

theins.press

 

[J-DONK]

The law passed, but they supposedly have the votes to override the veto.

I love how both Ukrainian, and Georgian populations have no free will. They are just puppets on the string to "NGOs".

Why would the population of Georgian not want Russian style media censorship?

Oh, I don't know maybe because Russia has no media that isn't state sponsored.

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/court-shuts-down-novaya-gazeta-one-russias-last-independent-media-2022-09-05/

 

[J-DONK]

Putin wants a ceasefire.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-wants-ukraine-ceasefire-current-frontlines-sources-say-2024-05-24/

 

[efil4]

Putin wants a ceasefire.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-wants-ukraine-ceasefire-current-frontlines-sources-say-2024-05-24/

he wants to "freeze" the lines as they stand. Meanwhile, RuAF continues its assault.

The play here is that he knows Ukraine/West wont come to the table that quick, so the more "land he can grab" prior to any negotiations, the better.

They really wanted to grab as much in Kharkiv direction as possible, but that has failed now. ( UAF are actually now pushing the lines back to border and RuAF have resorted to defensive posture vs offensive )

Not gonna happen. I suspect here soon the Biden admin will lift the ban on using US weapons across border, and UAF will turn on the Belgorod region ( Kharkiv region in N Ukraine ) - then shift focus toward Kherson/Crimea.

Ukraine has repeatedly stated that it will not negotiate on lands invaded and seized since Feb 2022. So Putin knows this is a non-starter, he just playing this for publicity sake to say " no see, i do want peace"

 

[DaveXA]

he wants to "freeze" the lines as they stand. Meanwhile, RuAF continues its assault.

The play here is that he knows Ukraine/West wont come to the table that quick, so the more "land he can grab" prior to any negotiations, the better.

They really wanted to grab as much in Kharkiv direction as possible, but that has failed now. ( UAF are actually now pushing the lines back to border and RuAF have resorted to defensive posture vs offensive )

Not gonna happen. I suspect here soon the Biden admin will lift the ban on using US weapons across border, and UAF will turn on the Belgorod region ( Kharkiv region in N Ukraine ) - then shift focus toward Kherson/Crimea.

Ukraine has repeatedly stated that it will not negotiate on lands invaded and seized since Feb 2022. So Putin knows this is a non-starter, he just playing this for publicity sake to say " no see, i do want peace"

Yep, basically more of the same from Poots. He wants everyone to think he has the leverage to demand to keep the borders at the current battlefield lines, which Russia has zero claim to.

 

[SaintForLife]

I love how both Ukrainian, and Georgian populations have no free will. They are just puppets on the string to "NGOs".

Why would the population of Georgian not want Russian style media censorship?

Oh, I don't know maybe because Russia has no media that isn't state sponsored.

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/court-shuts-down-novaya-gazeta-one-russias-last-independent-media-2022-09-05/

I've never said they didn't have free will, but you are extremely naive if you think all these US funded protests in other countries are just to support freedom and democracy.

Look at what I posted above. Out of 20 NGOs in Ukraine, all but one were funded by Western governments and foundations. Why would any reasonable person think it's bad to know who are funding those NGOs?

I'm not surprised you still won't answer why it's a bad thing to know what foreign governments are funding NGOs in your country to try to cause unrest and chaos. That would never be allowed in the US.

You are still using those CIA talking points by calling it a Russia type law.

 

[J-DONK]

I've never said they didn't have free will, but you are extremely naive if you think all these US funded protests in other countries are just to support freedom and democracy.

Look at what I posted above. Out of 20 NGOs in Ukraine, all but one were funded by Western governments and foundations. Why would any reasonable person think it's bad to know who are funding those NGOs?

I'm not surprised you still won't answer why it's a bad thing to know what foreign governments are funding NGOs in your country to try to cause unrest and chaos. That would never be allowed in the US.

You are still using those CIA talking points by calling it a Russia type law.

I have never said America doesn't actually try to influence these countries. You subscribe nefarious intentions to all of this, and some puppet master level of competence that has not been displayed.

Georgia's government is pro-Russian. Russia was also able to install Yanukovych in Ukraine. Here is a simple question you will dodge, and never answer. If the CIA is so good at this, and has it's claws in so deep. How does Russia continually get friendly governments elected in these countries? If you would honestly engage with these questions, it would lead you to facts like Russia far outspends America in Georgia.

You won't do that. Instead you will keep shouting about NGO's in some online mockery of the Peter principle. The guy who knows the least swears he knows it all.