Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[SaintForLife]

 

[SaintForLife]

This is simple.

GIVE US A MOTIVE

Russia invades a country > invaded country does something vaguely anti-russian> SFL comes in with "iT muST Be TTHJHEE GGGLLOWWWIEESSS"

It's so simple you still refuse to answer the question.

 

[SaintForLife]

 

[DaveXA]

You're one to post fairy tales, yeah.

 

[DaveXA]

If we substantially support Ukraine consistently, we won't have to worry about needing to send troops there.

 

[efil4]

John Mearsheimer has one view and one view only of the Russian/Ukraine war and in spite of ALL the evidence contrary to his belief, he is steadfast in his belief.

And he is just wrong.

What is really ironic is he is widely known as the father of offensive realism....and 1 of the 5 pillars of this theory is "states can never be certain of other states intentions".

Yet he claims to know EXACTLY what Putins intentions are.

He literally speaks in direct contradiction to his OWN THEORY.

When someone like Mearsheimer does this, you realize he HAS to if he doesnt want to amend his original thesis on the "why" Russia invaded. Confirmation bias.

So im not taking what he says, in totality, as gospel.

 

[LA - L.A.]

This is who Putin is and how Russia is under Putin. They are actively trying to assassinate the legitimately elected leader of a democratic nation who is still legitimately supported by the majority of the people of his country.

Putin and Russia are trying to kill Zelensky, because they want to conquer and loot Ukraine, and oppress the people of Ukraine. If Putin and Russia conquer Ukraine, they will torture and kill anyone in Ukraine who defies their oppression.

There is no both sides in the war of Ukraine. Putin and Russia are acting deceitfully, immorally and illegally.

Two Ukrainian security officials detained over Zelensky assassination plan | CNN

Two Ukrainian security officials have been detained for planning to assassinate President Volodymyr Zelensky, according to the country’s State Security Service.

www.cnn.com

Two Ukrainian government protection unit colonels have been detained and are accused of leaking classified information to Russia, the SBU said Tuesday, after it “exposed a network of agents” belonging to Russia’s state security service (FSB).

The SBU said the assassination plans also targeted other senior Ukrainian officials, including the head of the SBU, Vasyl Maliuk, and the head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov.

 

[J-DONK]

It's so simple you still refuse to answer the question.

I know you well enough now to know this really is "I know you are, but what am I." It's also "I can't answer those questions, because I don't think my opinions through at all."

It's ok though. Remember, you're actually smarter then all of us, and this is just for fun for you. We are the sheeple with mainstream views, and opinions. You are the enlightened one.

 

[J-DONK]

John Mearsheimer has one view and one view only of the Russian/Ukraine war and in spite of ALL the evidence contrary to his belief, he is steadfast in his belief.

And he is just wrong.

What is really ironic is he is widely known as the father of offensive realism....and 1 of the 5 pillars of this theory is "states can never be certain of other states intentions".

Yet he claims to know EXACTLY what Putins intentions are.

He literally speaks in direct contradiction to his OWN THEORY.

When someone like Mearsheimer does this, you realize he HAS to if he doesnt want to amend his original thesis on the "why" Russia invaded. Confirmation bias.

So im not taking what he says, in totality, as gospel.

Democrats have no winning moves with people like SFL.

Imagine if this likely scenario played out:

1. America stops giving aide
2. Ukraine loses the war completely.
3. Buscha times 100x happens in different parts of the country.

Who do you think would be on this website being critical of the Biden administration? SFL would 100% compare him unfavorably to Jimmy Carter. That's because SFL isn't actually a dove, or isolationist. He isn't that principled about anything.

 

[efil4]

Democrats have no winning moves with people like SFL.

Imagine if this likely scenario played out:

1. America stops giving aide
2. Ukraine loses the war completely.
3. Buscha times 100x happens in different parts of the country.

Who do you think would be on this website being critical of the Biden administration? SFL would 100% compare him unfavorably to Jimmy Carter. That's because SFL isn't actually a dove, or isolationist. He isn't that principled about anything.

its why i engage him on this topic in a very minimal amount.

He is more about obfuscation and chaos than anything else. His deep-rooted animosity for all things US in the geopolitical and military world has been a long time in the making, just now he has the means ( social media ) to decry all these institutions, with little to no regard for facts or truth.

He operates anonymously, complete disregard for any reputational aspects of his opinion whereas 20 short years ago, he would have NEVER spoken publicly about any of these things because he had no "supporting" cast. Now he has the likes of Greenwald et al to push his narratives into mainstream, making him feel as if he was right all along. No longer will he be silenced and ostracized for the insane views he holds true.

Its a fantastic example of just what Social Media has done to the fundamental fabric of discourse.

Todays Social Media is yesterdays "Speakers Corner" in London, on steroids. Just that now, the guy/gal spouting off conspiracy theories doesnt have a 3-5 person audience, he/she has 1000s or 10s of 1000s that eagerly listen to and say " yes! i was right!"

 

[SaintForLife]

John Mearsheimer has one view and one view only of the Russian/Ukraine war and in spite of ALL the evidence contrary to his belief, he is steadfast in his belief.

And he is just wrong.

What is really ironic is he is widely known as the father of offensive realism....and 1 of the 5 pillars of this theory is "states can never be certain of other states intentions".

Yet he claims to know EXACTLY what Putins intentions are.

He literally speaks in direct contradiction to his OWN THEORY.

When someone like Mearsheimer does this, you realize he HAS to if he doesnt want to amend his original thesis on the "why" Russia invaded. Confirmation bias.

So im not taking what he says, in totality, as gospel.

Let's see. Who knows more about international relations. Mearsheimer or elfi4? I think I'll go with the expert. He predicted what would happened years ago and he was right.

 

[MT15]

Let's see. Who knows more about international relations. Mearsheimer or elfi4? I think I'll go with the expert. He predicted what would happened years ago and he was right.

So explain why he is ignoring his own theory now - one that you seem to claim proves he knows what he is doing? Why is he going against one of the pillars he said was so important back then?

 

[DaveXA]

Let's see. Who knows more about international relations. Mearsheimer or elfi4? I think I'll go with the expert. He predicted what would happened years ago and he was right.

Considering he's twisted himself into knots trying to explain why he's right, I'll go with the simple answer is, for all his expertise, he's gotten a lot wrong.

But you go ahead and trust an 'expert' who has gotten more wrong than right regarding the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

 

[J-DONK]

Let's see. Who knows more about international relations. Mearsheimer or elfi4? I think I'll go with the expert. He predicted what would happened years ago and he was right.

Did he actually predict the invasion? I need a source.

Peter Zeihan is the only person I know off that actually called this. He even got the timeline right. He had meteoric rise in popularity because of it. He thinks America should aide Ukraine because in his view Russia won't stop at Ukraine.

In fact, he has a ton of content on youtube. Please go watch a ton of his stuff instead of David Sacks, Greenwald, and Tucker. You will at least understand how geography, and demographics shape nation-states decisions.

 

[LA - L.A.]

Did he actually predict the invasion? I need a source.

Peter Zeihan is the only person I know off that actually called this. He even got the timeline right. He had meteoric rise in popularity because of it. He thinks America should aide Ukraine because in his view Russia won't stop at Ukraine.

In fact, he has a ton of content on youtube. Please go watch a ton of his stuff instead of David Sacks, Greenwald, and Tucker. You will at least understand how geography, and demographics shape nation-states decisions.

Thanks for mentioning him. I don't recall hearing his name or reading anything by him before.

SaintForLife says he values the opinions of experts on how accurately they predict things. The one person who most accurately predicted Putin would invade Ukraine and when he would do it has this to say (these are his words, not mine):

So people who say that it’s NATO’s fault that expanded into these willing countries where they had votes and plebiscites and ratifications and they were enthusiastic about joining NATO – to say it’s NATO’s fault that there’s a war now – It’s not that they’re wrong – It’s that they’re stupid, because that was never an option.

So for the Russians to feel secure, from the way they define security, you would have to step away from the defense of and surrender to history into the Russians, a number of countries – Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus, and let’s not forget the stans, all five of them. And the caucuses, so add in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.

So for the Russians to feel safe, they need to occupy all these countries, suppress the interests of all of these countries, deny them access to participate in any sort of political or economic exchange with areas outside of the Russian zone…and then have a forward positioned military with five million men complete with nuclear weapons. That is the Russian definition of security.

Peter Zeihan: Is Russia's war against Ukraine really about NATO?

Some believe Russia invaded Ukraine to push back against NATO expansion, but it's really much more about Russia's need for security.

san.com

The quotes above are from the transcript of the video in the link. I recommend watching the video, because it shows maps that show the full geographic scope of the countries that Russia needs to conquer and dominate in order for Russia to feel secure.

 

[bird]

I am reading Zeihan’s book: The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization.

I assert that the invasion of Ukraine while cloaked in anti-Nazi bullschlitz is simply Putin’s attempt at imperialism in response to collapsing demographics. It has nothing to do with NATO and everything to do with population. Putin’s use of the Orthodox Church and images of the old USSR or Czarist empire is agitprop for internal consumption as well as some external such as the Christianists in the U.S.

Not to worry though. We will have our our demographic crisis soon enough.

 

[J-DONK]

I am reading Zeihan’s book: The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization.

I assert that the invasion of Ukraine while cloaked in anti-Nazi bullschlitz is simply Putin’s attempt at imperialism in response to collapsing demographics. It has nothing to do with NATO and everything to do with population. Putin’s use of the Orthodox Church and images of the old USSR or Czarist empire is agitprop for internal consumption as well as some external such as the Christianists in the U.S.

Not to worry though. We will have our our demographic crisis soon enough.

I think Zeihan is a little doomer pilled, but his overall point about demographics and geography are hard to argue against.

FYI: China is in the same boat as Russia. If they are going to take Taiwan it has to happen in the next decade.

 

[efil4]