Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[DaveXA]

I only throw out insults in response to someone doing it to me first. You are one talk about insults. This is the first substantial reply from you in a while. Your normal responses are short insults with nothing of substance. Complaining about something you do way more often than I do.

I haven't ignored those points. I don't believe them. You have no idea what you are talking about.

Wow! Ukraine Ambassador Chalyi, who participated in peace talks with Russia in Spring 2022, states that "we concluded" "Istanbul Communique" & "were very close in... April to finalize our war with some peaceful settlement" & that Putin "tried everything possible to conclude agreement with Ukraine." He says that it was Putin's "personal decision to accept the text of this communique."

Such peace deal framework to end war was also confirmed by head of Ukrainian delegation, officials close to Zelensky, ex-Israeli PM, ex-German chancellor, Putin, Turkish FM, former US officials & Arestovych. First five stated that deal was blocked by US/UK.

"There the Ukrainian side presented a ten-point “Istanbul Communiqué” outlining conditions for a cease-fire, permanent Ukrainian neutrality and international security guarantees. It also proposed clarifying the status of Crimea within fifteen years. Remaining points of contention were to be resolved at a meeting of the two presidents. The text did not include the Ukrainian demand for Russian forces to withdraw to behind the line of contact as of 23 February 2022.

The Istanbul Communiqué laid out Ukraine’s position and its response to the original Russian ultimatum. The document offered far-reaching concessions. Participants in the talks emphasised that the Communiqué had been pre-agreed by the parties and could have formed the basis for a negotiated settlement."


The Ukraine war is without a doubt a proxy war.

Leon Panetta:

"It's a proxy war with Russia whether we say so or not"



Any criticism of US Foreign Policy is defending Kremlin propaganda. Yawn. One again, new age McCarthyism, George Bush you are either with us or with the terrorists. Classic wartime propaganda that keeps repeating with a different template and yet you can see it eventhough it's right in front of you.

I rest my case. You just regurgitated a bunch of false and misleading nonsense. Par for the course. Why should I respond to such a disingenuous post? These have all been thoroughly debated and debunked. Yet you insist on reposting it. I'm not the one continually repeating Russian propaganda and talking points.

 

[MT15]

Where did SFL hear that the war is over and Russia already won? He refuses to say.

 

[DaveXA]

Where did SFL hear that the war is over and Russia already won? He refuses to say.

Depending on the reports, I believe that brings the number of Russian planes shot down in the last week to like 10-12. They're dropping like flies now. Something definitely is different now in terms of AFU tactics.

 

[SaintForLife]

You don't just criticize US foreign policy, plenty of people do that. What you do is turn every action, initiative or program by the US government and its foreign policy into some CIA or FBI conspiracy to create more chaos and tension in to world for the sole purpose of feeding the US industrial war complex or some action against Republicans/conservatives to control them.

It's always the same tune with false, misleading or misrepresented "proof" that is easily debunked in 2 min. It's exhausting and tired.

Well the CIA is involved in all of our foreign policy and the FBI is involved with a lot of things here domestically. Its not my fault you are unaware of that fact or don't care. You just take the word of our government no matter how many times they lie to us or our foreign policy or wars end up badly.

Look at how many "bombshell" stories during the Trump years later turned out to be complete bullshirt. You guys here always had some excuse why those things turned out to be false, but that never led you to step back and think that the media might be purposely misleading you.

You guys idea of debunking something is simply saying that's bullshirt or that's idiotic.

 

[efil4]

Well the CIA is involved in all of our foreign policy and the FBI is involved with a lot of things here domestically. Its not my fault you are unaware of that fact or don't care. You just take the word of our government no matter how many times they lie to us or our foreign policy or wars end up badly.

Look at how many "bombshell" stories during the Trump years later turned out to be complete bullshirt. You guys here always had some excuse why those things turned out to be false, but that never led you to step back and think that the media might be purposely misleading you.

You guys idea of debunking something is simply saying that's bullshirt or that's idiotic.

blink twice if you are under duress.

 

[DaveXA]

blink twice if you are under duress.

I thought it was twice if you're good and three times if under duress?

 

[SaintForLife]

I rest my case. You just regurgitated a bunch of false and misleading nonsense. Par for the course. Why should I respond to such a disingenuous post? These have all been thoroughly debated and debunked. Yet you insist on reposting it. I'm not the one continually repeating Russian propaganda and talking points.

You rest your case? Lol. I addressed each one of your points specifically and you fell back to your vague replies.

You claimed the US didn't scuttle peace talks because Russia didn't want Ukraine involved in the negotiating. I posted a video of the Ukrainian Ambassador saying he was involved in the peace talks with Russia and they were very close to finalizing their agreement. So you were wrong on that point & your Russian propaganda accusation is complete bullshirt.

You said it wasn't a proxy war. I posed a video showing that even longtime Democrat Leon Panetta said it was a proxy war. Once again, you were wrong and the Russian propaganda accusation was complete bullshirt.

 

[SaintForLife]

Where did SFL hear that the war is over and Russia already won? He refuses to say.

There is still fighting, but the war is basically over. They are at a stalemate and Ukraine has made little to no progress the last year. They are pulling people off the street and forcing them to be on the front lines. The media has already started to change what's acceptable for a victory.

What is that report that Russia 2 planes shot down by Ukraine based on? The orginal account on X has only 2,069 followers. It doesn't cite any sources for the claim. It's just a random picture of a plane and the claim. I could make the same post on X. That doesn't look credible.

 

[efil4]

There is still fighting, but the war is basically over. They are at a stalemate and Ukraine has made little to no progress the last year. They are pulling people off the street and forcing them to be on the front lines. The media has already started to change what's acceptable for a victory.

What is that report that Russia 2 planes shot down by Ukraine based on? The orginal account on X has only 2,069 followers. It doesn't cite any sources for the claim. It's just a random picture of a plane and the claim. I could make the same post on X. That doesn't look credible.

this is "fighterbomber" Telegram- he is a well known Russian mil-blogger.

 

[MT15]

You claimed the US didn't scuttle peace talks because Russia didn't want Ukraine involved in the negotiating. I posted a video of the Ukrainian Ambassador saying he was involved in the peace talks with Russia and they were very close to finalizing their agreement. So you were wrong on that point & your Russian propaganda accusation is complete bullshirt.

You seem to be conflating 2 different Russian talking points here. The more recent Russian talking point is that Russia wanted the US to negotiate, but the US said they would never negotiate without Ukraine being the prime negotiator. Your video, I think, is about supposed peace talks that happened early in the war, and IIRC Russia actually nixed those, and then claimed the US did.

I realize it’s hard to keep things straight.

 

[SaintForLife]

this is "fighterbomber" Telegram- he is a well known Russian mil-blogger.

Where and who are the sources for those reports? All I see is stock pictures of planes and other photos that could be from anything, short posts on X, & people posting on Telegram. It might all be legit, but it could also be propaganda.

 

[MT15]

Where and who are the sources for those reports? All I see is stock pictures of planes and other photos that could be from anything, short posts on X, & people posting on Telegram. It might all be legit, but it could also be propaganda.

If only you would apply this sort of skepticism to things you want to believe are true.

Here is an article about it. The source is Ukraine. It hasn’t been denied by Russia as of yet.

Russia loses tenth plane in 10 days

Ukrainian Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk said Kyiv had shot down another Russian jet.

www.newsweek.com

 

[efil4]

Where and who are the sources for those reports? All I see is stock pictures of planes and other photos that could be from anything, short posts on X, & people posting on Telegram. It might all be legit, but it could also be propaganda.

Russian mil-blogger who reports daily on events in the Russian/Ukraine war.

i really dont care what you choose to believe at this point. They have lost 10 planes in 10 days. Confirmed thru various channels - be it death notices in Russia, family members posting, UAF confirmation of operation etc

 

[SaintForLife]

You seem to be conflating 2 different Russian talking points here. The more recent Russian talking point is that Russia wanted the US to negotiate, but the US said they would never negotiate without Ukraine being the prime negotiator.

Not quite. That's what Dave had said was the case and I responded to it. So are you saying Dave is pushing Russian talking points?

Your video, I think, is about supposed peace talks that happened early in the war, and IIRC Russia actually nixed those, and then claimed the US did.

I realize it’s hard to keep things straight.

From what I posted above:

Such peace deal framework to end war was also confirmed by head of Ukrainian delegation, officials close to Zelensky, ex-Israeli PM, ex-German chancellor, Putin, Turkish FM, former US officials & Arestovych. First five stated that deal was blocked by US/UK.

 

[SaintForLife]

If only you would apply this sort of skepticism to things you want to believe are true.

Here is an article about it. The source is Ukraine. It hasn’t been denied by Russia as of yet.

Russia loses tenth plane in 10 days

Ukrainian Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk said Kyiv had shot down another Russian jet.

www.newsweek.com

That might be true, but all countries lie especially during wartime. Is there anyone besides someone from Ukraine reporting it?

 

[SaintForLife]

Russian mil-blogger who reports daily on events in the Russian/Ukraine war.

i really dont care what you choose to believe at this point. They have lost 10 planes in 10 days. Confirmed thru various channels - be it death notices in Russia, family members posting, UAF confirmation of operation etc

Confirmed through random X posters and the Ukrainian military. Once again it could be true, but I'm not believing it from those sources.

Are you still thinking that it's possible for Ukraine to defeat Russia?

 

[efil4]

Not quite. That's what Dave had said was the case and I responded to it. So are you saying Dave is pushing Russian talking points?


From what I posted above:

Such peace deal framework to end war was also confirmed by head of Ukrainian delegation, officials close to Zelensky, ex-Israeli PM, ex-German chancellor, Putin, Turkish FM, former US officials & Arestovych. First five stated that deal was blocked by US/UK.

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www.pravda.com.ua

educate yourself bro- do us all a favor.

 

[efil4]

Confirmed through random X posters and the Ukrainian military. Once again it could be true, but I'm not believing it from those sources.

Are you still thinking that it's possible for Ukraine to defeat Russia?

I think its entirely possible for Ukraine to create such a quagmire in this conflict, with a million dead/wounded Russians, that pressures Russia ends up in a negotiated deal where the left bank of Dnipro remains w/ Ukraine, and some parts of Donbas remain w/ Russia. Something to that effect.

But the overall issue is Putin- his word means nothing. He will gladly 'sign" an agreement and then break it when he feels ready to.

2 days before the invasion, he stated publicly "we are not going to invade Ukraine"

I think had the West provided kit immediately, this would be a different war today. But unfortunately for the West, most leaders have to balance out vs citizenry ( espeically those who are opposed in all facets of aid in this conflict )

Guess who understands THAT? Putin. See when you are a dictator, you dont have to give 2 shirts about what your citizens "think" - those who dont agree, those who protest, ask them what happens.