Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (2 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[MT15]

Well, huh.

 

[Maxp]

Every picture I see of Putin in a news article looks like a different person.

 

[MT15]

 

[efil4]

Where is ship?

 

[efil4]

Where is ship?

found a piece.

 

[LA - L.A.]

Anyone know why the ship in the still photo is flying the Union Jack?

 

[Postingless]

found a piece.

wow such piece could have killed someone. I hope that none of the civilians were injured. They have nothing to do with this.

 

[efil4]

wow such piece could have killed someone. I hope that none of the civilians were injured. They have nothing to do with this.

Russian retaliation for the sinking of the Naval vessel

yeah civilians.

 

[SaintForLife]

Oh, you don’t say? A coordinated effort at messaging from fans of Putin? Main stream media fails to produce a true picture.

Yeah he sounds like someone we shouldn't trust.

 

[SaintForLife]

Look, you seem have zero issue with saying everyone else is wrong, but you repeatedly refuse to put your own ideas out there.

I do think Ukraine’s casualties are far less than Russia, and it makes sense if you have even cursory knowledge of how the war has been fought up til now.

I don't know what the actual numbers are, but it's quite obvious that they are overestimating the Russian casualties and underestimating the Ukrainian loses in their recent campaign to try to save face and claim that Russia has lost the war.

 

[SaintForLife]

Quick pivot, @SaintForLife.

Can I ask what your desired endgame is here? Like, I get that you want us to stop funding Ukraine, but have you thought even one step past that?

Like, when we stop funding Ukraine, they inevitably fall to Russia (which, to be fair, you claim has basically already happened). What do you think happens next?

My desired endgame is for our proxy war with a nuclear armed Russia to end. There is no vital US interests in Ukraine.

Unfortunately for Ukraine, they will have to negotiate with Russia for a ceasefire after suffering many casualties, losing 20% of their country to Russia, and all the damage to their infrastructure and their population.

They could have negotiated with Russia before the war and at the beginning, but the US and UK made sure that didn't happen. They could have negotiated before they lost 20% of their country and the casualties and damage.

What do I think happens next? I'm not sure, but I do know that the insane fearmongering that Putin would try to take over other European countries is bullshirt. He has never attacked a NATO country and its ridiculous to claim that's been his plan all along.

The war was always about Putin not wanting a NATO country on his border even despite the claims from the war machine supporters.

 

[SaintForLife]

Well, huh.

All they need is more weapons to win?

 

[SaintForLife]

Once again, I will provide documentation for my numbers.

“The Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.”

Troop Deaths and Injuries in Ukraine War Near 500,000, U.S. Officials Say (Published 2023)

Ukraine and Russia have lost a staggering number of troops as Kyiv’s counteroffensive drags on. A lack of rapid medical care has added to the toll.

www.nytimes.com

How is "US Officials say" considered any kind of documentation?

 

[SaintForLife]

It's over

But regaining territory is the wrong way to imagine the best outcome. True victory for Ukraine is to rise from the hell of the war as a strong, independent, prosperous and secure state, firmly planted in the West. It would be exactly what Mr. Putin most feared from a neighboring state with deep historical ties to Russia, and it would be a testament to what Russia promised to become in 1991, when both countries broke free of the Soviet Union, before Mr. Putin entered the Kremlin and succumbed to grievance and the lure of dictatorial power and imperial illusion.

Opinion | Ukraine Doesn’t Need All Its Territory to Defeat Putin

Putin is not trustworthy, but if he turns out to be serious, Ukraine should not pass up an opportunity to end the bloodshed.

www.nytimes.com

The Biden Administration Is Quietly Shifting Its Strategy in Ukraine

For two years, Biden and Zelenskyy have been focused on driving Russia from Ukraine. Now Washington is discussing a move to a more defensive posture.

www.politico.com

 

[brandon]

There is no vital US interests in Ukraine.

This is a wild take.

Unfortunately for Ukraine, they will have to negotiate with Russia for a ceasefire after suffering many casualties, losing 20% of their country to Russia, and all the damage to their infrastructure and their population.

Versus...

They could have negotiated with Russia before the war and at the beginning, but the US and UK made sure that didn't happen. They could have negotiated before they lost 20% of their country and the casualties and damage.

If they had negotiated prior to the war, what do you think they would have had to give up to prevent Putin from rolling in? Keeping in mind, of course, that they had already tacitly ceded Crimea years ago.

 

[SaintForLife]

This is a wild take.

Why don't you list the vital US interests in Ukraine?

Versus...


If they had negotiated prior to the war, what do you think they would have had to give up to prevent Putin from rolling in? Keeping in mind, of course, that they had already tacitly ceded Crimea years ago.

They would have had to pledge not to join NATO.

Are you going to tell us what you think would happen next In the scenario you listed in your previous post?

 

[zztop]

The Biden Administration Is Quietly Shifting Its Strategy in Ukraine

For two years, Biden and Zelenskyy have been focused on driving Russia from Ukraine. Now Washington is discussing a move to a more defensive posture.

www.politico.com

with U.S. and European aid to Ukraine now in serious jeopardy, the Biden administration and European officials are quietly shifting their focus from supporting Ukraine’s goal of total victory over Russia to improving its position in an eventual negotiation to end the war, according to a Biden administration official and a European diplomat based in Washington. Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine to Russia.

 

[MT15]

I don't know what the actual numbers are, but it's quite obvious that they are overestimating the Russian casualties and underestimating the Ukrainian loses in their recent campaign to try to save face and claim that Russia has lost the war.

How is it obvious? Based on what? I have shown 3-4 independent estimates of Russian casualties which all align. Are you just going with your feelings here?