Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[bird]

This thread is interesting. Much more if you follow the link.

Shhh. Don’t let SFL see this.

 

[SaintForLife]

Reuters is reporting it based on a declassified intelligence report. It’s not as shaky as you want it to be. From Reuters:

“A declassified U.S. intelligence report assessed that the Ukraine war has cost Russia 315,000 dead and injured troops, or nearly 90% of the personnel it had when the conflict began, a source familiar with the intelligence said on Tuesday.

The report also assessed that Moscow's losses in personnel and armored vehicles to Ukraine's military have set back Russia’s military modernization by 18 years, the source said.”

What is your source and what number of casualties do you think Russia has sustained?

If it's declassified then it should be available for the public to see what they are basing that on. Otherwise it's safe to assume it's not true or they manipulated the numbers based on how many lies the government has told about wars.

I don't know what the true casualty numbers are for Russians or Ukrainians, but I assume both sides will overestimate the others casualties and underestimate their own. It's hard to get accurate casualties during wars.

 

[SaintForLife]

So how long will it take the mighty Russian army to win?

Early estimates were less than a week.

They've basically already won.

'We're losing': Ukrainians reel from war chief's stalemate warning

The frontline between the Ukrainian army and Russian forces occupying the east and south of the country has barely moved since last November.

www.japantimes.co.jp

And this:

 

[Bigdaddysaints]

your baseing the losing on one serviceman sayin it?

"I've been saying that for some time now already. Step by step we're losing the war," said the serviceman, who uses the call sign "Mudryi"

Its no secret you don't actually read the articles you post..

 

[SaintForLife]

To be fair, you didn't do any digging either. You just read some Matt Taibbi tweets (I'm assuming you read them all) and then reposted them here.

Translation: I can't say what you said isn't true so I'll make a dig about posting Matt Taibbi tweets while I fail to acknowledge the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab is funded by Goldman Sachs, Raytheon, the UAE, and Burisma.

 

[SaintForLife]

your baseing the losing on one serviceman sayin it?

Its no secret you don't actually read the articles you post..

Ukraine’s commander-in-chief on the breakthrough he needs to beat Russia

General Valery Zaluzhny admits the war is at a stalemate

www.economist.com

 

[efil4]

I don't know what the true casualty numbers are for Russians or Ukrainians, but I assume both sides will overestimate the others casualties and underestimate their own. It's hard to get accurate casualties during wars.

no its actually not hard.

At all. But you have no idea how its done, so you immediately resort to "discrediting" the info because it doesnt align with your beliefs.

thats called confirmation bias. Something you exhibit routinely thru all of your postings.

You go on and think/believe what you want.

here- from Russian channel. RuAF losses are 2.5-3x higher than UAF.

 

[SaintForLife]

no its actually not hard.

At all. But you have no idea how its done, so you immediately resort to "discrediting" the info because it doesnt align with your beliefs.

thats called confirmation bias. Something you exhibit routinely thru all of your postings.

You go on and think/believe what you want.

here- from Russian channel. RuAF losses are 2.5-3x higher than UAF.

From the article MT15 posted recently in this thread:

Newsweek is unable to independently verify any of the casualty figures, which are notoriously difficult to accurately determine during any war.

Putin admits Russia has suffered huge losses in Ukraine

"Putin literally admitted irretrievable losses in the amount of 363 thousand people," said Russian military analyst Ian Matveev.

www.newsweek.com

 

[MT15]

Ukraine’s commander-in-chief on the breakthrough he needs to beat Russia

General Valery Zaluzhny admits the war is at a stalemate

www.economist.com

Stalemate is very different than “Russia has already won” no? You tend to post things that don’t confirm what you say.

Also, yes casualty figures are hard to come by. But what we have here is 3 independent estimates - UK and US, plus Ukraine all put casualties for Russia at about 300,000.

You admit you have nothing else to go on, but are eager to assume that everyone is lying. I even posted a Russian analyst who puts the figures at around 300,000 as well.

Why deny what literally every side here thinks is true? Because one Twitter account and Taibbi (a known Russian sympathizer who has been dishonest in the past) say so?

 

[MT15]

Oh, and Enjeti is a former correspondent for The Daily Caller, and worked for the Hudson Institute, which I hesitate to tell you has taken money from the military industrial complex. LOL.

 

[efil4]

Oh, and Enjeti is a former correspondent for The Daily Caller, and worked for the Hudson Institute, which I hesitate to tell you has taken money from the military industrial complex. LOL.

oh that doesnt matter when it comes to his confirmation bias.

ever.

 

[efil4]

From the article MT15 posted recently in this thread:

Newsweek is unable to independently verify any of the casualty figures, which are notoriously difficult to accurately determine during any war.

Putin admits Russia has suffered huge losses in Ukraine

"Putin literally admitted irretrievable losses in the amount of 363 thousand people," said Russian military analyst Ian Matveev.

www.newsweek.com

and there are 15 others, from Reuters to Time saying 315,000 based on declassified intel.

So you choose this one over the other 15 and intelligence reports.

 

[Bigdaddysaints]

Ukraine’s commander-in-chief on the breakthrough he needs to beat Russia

General Valery Zaluzhny admits the war is at a stalemate

www.economist.com

can't read the whole article, its behind a pay wall, but are you saying a stalemate and a deadlock is the same thing as the war being over and Russia winning?
Also, WW1 was a stalemate at one time, but guess what, Germany didn't "win" and France didn't scede any of its counrty to Germany or Austria/Hungry...
or maybe i remember history wrong, refresh my memory on how that stalemate turned out for them?

 

[efil4]

They've basically already won.

LOL - this is "winning"

 

[SaintForLife]

Oh, and Enjeti is a former correspondent for The Daily Caller, and worked for the Hudson Institute, which I hesitate to tell you has taken money from the military industrial complex. LOL.

Is he criticizing the war or cheerleading the war like many on the left? If he was advocating positions that support the war then I wouldn't consider him credible.

Oh look at you now concerned about who is being funded by the military industrial complex. That's hilarious considering just about every person you post here about the Ukraine war is being funded by weapons manufacturers, governments, intelligence agencies and censorship goons.

 

[SaintForLife]

and there are 15 others, from Reuters to Time saying 315,000 based on declassified intel.

So you choose this one over the other 15 and intelligence reports.

Um, MT15 posted that article in this thread recently. Maybe you should take it up with her.

Oh 15 others? They are all reporting on the same thing. You act as is if all 15 independently verified the information.

 

[efil4]

If he was advocating positions that support the war then I wouldn't consider him credible.

LOL - aka confirmation bias.

 

[bird]

Is he criticizing the war or cheerleading the war like many on the left? If he was advocating positions that support the war then I wouldn't consider him credible.

Oh look at you now concerned about who is being funded by the military industrial complex. That's hilarious considering just about every person you post here about the Ukraine war is being funded by weapons manufacturers, governments, intelligence agencies and censorship goons.

Is lying about a war acceptable? Apparently when it supports the terrorist Putin it is.