Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[SaintForLife]

 

[Bigdaddysaints]

Ukraine can win. Don’t let Putin scare us.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/05/02/west-should-not-fear-russia-putin-escalation-threat-ukraine-war/

i can't read the article because it's behind a pay wall. but if the date in the link is when it was written, 5-22 was well after the invasion..

 

[MT15]

i can't read the article because it's behind a pay wall. but if the date in the link is when it was written, 5-22 was well after the invasion..

Yes, and it actually confirms what we were saying.

 

[MT15]

What this guy says makes a lot of sense.

 

[MT15]

 

[SaintForLife]

What this guy says makes a lot of sense.

Is he from the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab as well?

 

[MT15]

Is he from the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab?

I don’t know. Can you comment on what he says? What he says actually makes sense knowing what we know about Putin. He’s been murdering opponents for decades. What makes you think he would make any sort of agreement that preserves the sovereignty of Ukraine?

 

[SaintForLife]

I don’t know. Can you comment on what he says? What he says actually makes sense knowing what we know about Putin. He’s been murdering opponents for decades. What makes you think he would make any sort of agreement that preserves the sovereignty of Ukraine?

I was just wondering because he sounds about as credible as the report you posted from Digital Forensic Research Lab about the supposed Russian influence on TikTok.

It's hard to tell what sources you post that aren't funded by governments, weapons manufacturers, intelligence services or censorship advocates.

 

[MT15]

I was just wondering because he sounds about as credible as the report you posted from Digital Forensic Research Lab about the supposed Russian influence on TikTok.

It's hard to tell what sources you post that aren't funded by governments, weapons manufacturers, intelligence services or censorship advocates.

Why don’t you just try to respond to ideas posted and quit worrying if they come from a source on your shirt list? Do you think what he posted makes sense or not? If not, why not?

 

[cuddlemonkey]

I was just wondering because he sounds about as credible as the report you posted from Digital Forensic Research Lab about the supposed Russian influence on TikTok.

It's hard to tell what sources you post that aren't funded by governments, weapons manufacturers, intelligence services or censorship advocates.

The next time you offer your own opinion will be a first. Do you have any original thoughts on the content of what MT posted?

 

[SaintForLife]

I don’t know. Can you comment on what he says? What he says actually makes sense knowing what we know about Putin. He’s been murdering opponents for decades. What makes you think he would make any sort of agreement that preserves the sovereignty of Ukraine?

He said:

The reason is that the Ukrainian military exposed the weakness of Putin's regime. Russia was humiliated on the world stage. Since then, it is not about domination: Putin needs to destroy Ukraine and humiliate the West because they openly challenged him and exposed his weakness.

It's hard to take someone seriously that makes such an obviously false statement. How has Russia been humiliated? Are you basing that on the claim that Russia hasn't already won the war?

I was joking when I asked if he worked for the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab, but a Google search showed he is involved with:

https://carnegieendowment.org/experts/1772

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's donors include NATO, Boeing, & Northrop Grumman. Are yall able to post things from people who don't have connections to companies that profit from war and the actions they advocate?

 

[DaveXA]

He said:

The reason is that the Ukrainian military exposed the weakness of Putin's regime. Russia was humiliated on the world stage. Since then, it is not about domination: Putin needs to destroy Ukraine and humiliate the West because they openly challenged him and exposed his weakness.

It's hard to take someone seriously that makes such an obviously false statement. How has Russia been humiliated? Are you basing that on the claim that Russia hasn't already won the war?

I was joking when I asked if he worked for the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab, but a Google search showed he is involved with:

https://carnegieendowment.org/experts/1772

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's donors include NATO, Boeing, & Northrop Grumman. Are yall able to post things from people who don't have connections to companies that profit from war and the actions they advocate?

Considering that by nearly all expert accounts, Ukraine was expected to capitulate in days, not weeks/months/years. It's why Ukraine didn't start receiving significal material support until they realized Ukraine was going to stand firm and fight. Russia was literally on Kiev's doorstep, and Ukraine fought back and regained tens of thousands of square miles.

The fact that we're still here talking about it at all two years later is a pretty remarkable failure for Poots.

 

[SaintForLife]

Considering that by nearly all expert accounts, Ukraine was expected to capitulate in days, not weeks/months/years. It's why Ukraine didn't start receiving significal material support until they realized Ukraine was going to stand firm and fight. Russia was literally on Kiev's doorstep, and Ukraine fought back and regained tens of thousands of square miles.

The fact that we're still here talking about it at all two years later is a pretty remarkable failure for Poots.

Trying to spin Ukraine’s/The US defeat as a failure for Putin is laughable.

 

[DaveXA]

Trying to spin Ukraine’s/The US defeat as a failure for Putin is laughable.

Lmao, keep smoking that good stuff. LA LA land must be a trip.

 

[SaintForLife]

Lmao, keep smoking that good stuff. LA LA land must be a trip.

Stop listening to people who are funded by weapons manufacturers.

 

[SaintForLife]

Jon Mearsheimer saying there is no chance that Russia will invade Europe. Any claims that Putin's plan after Ukraine is to invade European countries is insane fear mongering.


He predicted what would happen in regards to Ukraine back in 2015 and he was right.

 

[efil4]

Jon Mearsheimer saying there is no chance that Russia will invade Europe. Any claims that Putin's plan after Ukraine is to invade European countries is insane fear mongering.


He predicted what would happen in regards to Ukraine back in 2015 and he was right.

Ole John Mearshiemer - antiquated realist.

EUIdeas | John Mearsheimer’s lecture on Ukraine: Why he is wrong and what are the consequences

euideas.eui.eu

and you disregard others who post from "slanted" or "unreliable" sources

LOL. like clockwork.

 

[SaintForLife]

Ole John Mearshiemer - antiquated realist.

EUIdeas | John Mearsheimer’s lecture on Ukraine: Why he is wrong and what are the consequences

euideas.eui.eu

and you disregard others who post from "slanted" or "unreliable" sources

LOL. like clockwork.

It's hard to take someone seriously when they use this kind of idiotic argument:

By publicly defending his scientifically unsound thesis, Mearsheimer legitimises Russia’s propaganda and violates the fundamental values of social responsibility that all academics should respect.

Mearsheimer was right. Everything he said in the video I posted above from 2015 has happened.