Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[SaintForLife]

We need to continue supporting Ukraine.

White House Warns Ukraine Aid Is Running Out, Pressing Congress for More

The warning, in a letter to congressional leaders, comes as Republican support for funding Kyiv’s war effort is waning, and an emergency funding package is stalled in Congress.

www.nytimes.com

P.S: I should add that support for Israel doesn't mean we can stop supporting Ukraine. We need to support both.

With little to no progress in the last year, how long should we continue to fund the war? Should there be any financial limits?

 

[SaintForLife]

You keep harping on this when it's been explained multiple that nothing has disproven their reporting on the progress AFU has made from the beginning of the war. You even admitted as much.

How they're funded is irrelevant if what they're reporting is accurate.

That was from one person and the title of the article was A Case Study in American Propaganda.

There has been little to no progress the last year, but the ISW has been claiming otherwise.

 

[SaintForLife]

It’s becoming increasingly difficult to deny the war in Ukraine could have been ended mere months into the Russian invasion — and that the U.S. and U.K. governments worked to prevent this from happening.

The latest piece of corroboration comes courtesy David Arakhamia, the parliamentary leader of Zelensky’s “Servant of the People” party who led the Ukrainian delegation in peace talks with Moscow. Arakhamia told journalist Natalia Moseichuk in a recent televised interview that “Russia's goal was to push us to take neutrality,” meaning to commit to not joining NATO, and that “they were ready to end the war if we accept neutrality.”

There were several reasons the negotiations ultimately collapsed, he said, including the need to change the Ukrainian constitution (which had been amended in February 2019 to enshrine the country’s NATO aspirations), and the fact that Johnson had come to Kyiv to inform Ukrainian officials the West wouldn’t sign any agreement with Moscow, instead urging: “let’s just fight.”

Arakhamia also said that Kyiv’s lack of trust in the Russian side to fulfill its end of the bargain meant that the peace deal “could only be done if there were security guarantees” — suggesting, obliquely, that negotiations could have borne fruit had they received the backing and involvement of NATO states. Western governments’ provision of security guarantees for Ukraine have long been part of the discussion for how to ensure the sustainability of a post-war peace deal, and in fact, Arakhmia himself disclosed in the same interview that “the Western allies advised us not to agree to ephemeral security guarantees.”

Did the West deliberately prolong the Ukraine war?

Mounting evidence proves that we cannot believe anything our officials say about the futility of negotiations.

responsiblestatecraft.org

 

[SaintForLife]

that's just what the weapons manufacturers want you to believe..

Imagine being so ensconced in US War Propaganda that you joke about relying on information from weapons manufacturers and you still think that it's credible.

 

[Bigdaddysaints]

Imagine being so ensconced in US War Propaganda that you joke about relying on information from weapons manufacturers and you still think that it's credible.

imagine being do encased in Russian propaganda to keep posting Tweets and links from known Russian sources

 

[Bigdaddysaints]

That was from one person and the title of the article was A Case Study in American Propaganda.

There has been little to no progress the last year, but the ISW has been claiming otherwise.

if there has been little or no progress, Russia would be in control of all of Ukraine as we speak. everyday Russia doesn't make significant advances, thats a day of progress.

 

[MT15]

It’s becoming increasingly difficult to deny the war in Ukraine could have been ended mere months into the Russian invasion — and that the U.S. and U.K. governments worked to prevent this from happening.

The latest piece of corroboration comes courtesy David Arakhamia, the parliamentary leader of Zelensky’s “Servant of the People” party who led the Ukrainian delegation in peace talks with Moscow. Arakhamia told journalist Natalia Moseichuk in a recent televised interview that “Russia's goal was to push us to take neutrality,” meaning to commit to not joining NATO, and that “they were ready to end the war if we accept neutrality.”

There were several reasons the negotiations ultimately collapsed, he said, including the need to change the Ukrainian constitution (which had been amended in February 2019 to enshrine the country’s NATO aspirations), and the fact that Johnson had come to Kyiv to inform Ukrainian officials the West wouldn’t sign any agreement with Moscow, instead urging: “let’s just fight.”

Arakhamia also said that Kyiv’s lack of trust in the Russian side to fulfill its end of the bargain meant that the peace deal “could only be done if there were security guarantees” — suggesting, obliquely, that negotiations could have borne fruit had they received the backing and involvement of NATO states. Western governments’ provision of security guarantees for Ukraine have long been part of the discussion for how to ensure the sustainability of a post-war peace deal, and in fact, Arakhmia himself disclosed in the same interview that “the Western allies advised us not to agree to ephemeral security guarantees.”

Did the West deliberately prolong the Ukraine war?

Mounting evidence proves that we cannot believe anything our officials say about the futility of negotiations.

responsiblestatecraft.org

This organization is isolationist - even to the point that 2 of their board members resigned in protest over their lack of opposition to Putin’s invasion. I’m not saying their ideas are always wrong, it is a serious thinktank, but there was pretty strong disagreement within their own organization over Ukraine. And they will always push an isolationist viewpoint. What you are posting is largely an opinion piece, yet you give it credence and you say the ISW is wrong. It’s just believing what you want to believe, isn’t it?

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

With little to no progress in the last year, how long should we continue to fund the war? Should there be any financial limits?

As long as they need it.

 

[DaveXA]

With the mess that is Congress showing their arses. It's time for Biden to step in and use the power he has to send emergency support to Ukraine. I've seen people complain why he hasn't used that authority to release billions in aid. Well, this might be the right time.

 

[SaintForLife]

The Ukraine war makes these people very happy. Once the war us over someone like Blackrock will lead the reconstruction of Ukraine.

So the US will have funded the destruction and the reconstruction of Ukraine. That's a major reason why we are 33 trillion in debt.

 

[DaveXA]

The Ukraine war makes these people very happy. Once the war us over someone like Blackrock will lead the reconstruction of Ukraine.

Blackrock is a private company, no?

So the US will have funded the destruction and the reconstruction of Ukraine.

Only partially. A lot of companies and countries, including the US will contribute to the rebuilding of Ukraine, which won't happen until Poots and his cronies leave Ukraine. And no, we're not funding the destruction of Ukraine, Russia is the one invading and bombing that country.

That's a major reason why we are 33 trillion in debt.

No, it's absolutely not. We're $33T in debt because we spend far more than we collect in revenue.

 

[MT15]

The Ukraine war makes these people very happy. Once the war us over someone like Blackrock will lead the reconstruction of Ukraine.

So the US will have funded the destruction and the reconstruction of Ukraine. That's a major reason why we are 33 trillion in debt.

None of this makes any sense, and conveniently blames the US for the invasion of Ukraine.

 

[MT15]

The GOP doesn’t want to reform immigration. They just want to get sound bites on Fox.

 

[MT15]

The GOP’s true motive:

 

[SaintForLife]

The GOP doesn’t want to reform immigration. They just want to get sound bites on Fox.

I agree. Most Republicans claim they want immigration/border fixed, but in reality they want the cheap labor for their corporate donors.

The Democrats don't want it fixed either because they want they eventual votes when they finally get amnesty passed.

There are only a small amount of Republicans and Democrats who actually want immigration/border fixed.

 

[SaintForLife]

The GOP’s true motive:

The blame game starts for Biden and NATO failing miserably in their goal to weaken Russia despite them claiming everything was going fine in the war until recently.

Redefining Success in Ukraine

A new strategy must balance means and ends.

www.foreignaffairs.com

 

[MT15]

I agree. Most Republicans claim they want immigration/border fixed, but in reality they want the cheap labor for their corporate donors.

The Democrats don't want it fixed either because they want they eventual votes when they finally get amnesty passed.

There are only a small amount of Republicans and Democrats who actually want immigration/border fixed.

A rare point of somewhat agreement! But I would say that Biden has put forward some pretty good proposals for border reform and the GOP rejected it out of hand. It puts more egg on their faces, IMO.

 

[MT15]

The blame game starts for Biden and NATO failing miserably in their goal to weaken Russia despite them claiming everything was going fine in the war until recently.

So your contention is that Russia hasn’t been weakened by the Ukraine invasion? Just so we are clear what you are saying.