Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[coldseat]

The blame game starts for Biden and NATO failing miserably in their goal to weaken Russia despite them claiming everything was going fine in the war until recently.

You don't think Russia losing 87% of the troops they started the war with has weakened them?

Russia has lost 87% of troops it had prior to start of Ukraine war, according to US intelligence assessment | CNN Politics

Russia has lost a staggering 87 percent of the total number of active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching its invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks, a source familiar with a declassified US intelligence assessment provided to Congress told CNN.

www.cnn.com

 

[LA - L.A.]

You don't think Russia losing 87% of the troops they started the war with has weakened them?

Russia has lost 87% of troops it had prior to start of Ukraine war, according to US intelligence assessment | CNN Politics

Russia has lost a staggering 87 percent of the total number of active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching its invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks, a source familiar with a declassified US intelligence assessment provided to Congress told CNN.

www.cnn.com

This is the most concerning aspect of the Russia's invasion, because this is one of the things that increase the likelihood that Putin will escalate to tactical nukes.

At the current rate of troop attrition, Russia will start losing it's ability to hold the land it's taken. You can't hold land from the air or sea, you have to have boots on the ground. Russia is running out of reinforcements which is why they are desperately bribing or coercing Russian citizens into military service. Those new troops don't have the training, discipline, motivation or morale to effectively defend seized Ukrainian territories.

If the current trend continues, I think it's inevitable that Putin will resort to helter-skelter use of tactical nukes. I think Putin will risk almost literally burning the whole world to the ground before he retreats from Ukraine.

I also don't think that's justification for letting him have his way with Ukraine.

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

This is the most concerning aspect of the Russia's invasion, because this is one of the things that increase the likelihood that Putin will escalate to tactical nukes.

At the current rate of troop attrition, Russia will start losing it's ability to hold the land it's taken. You can't hold land from the air or sea, you have to have boots on the ground. Russia is running out of reinforcements which is why they are desperately bribing or coercing Russian citizens into military service. Those new troops don't have the training, discipline, motivation or morale to effectively defend seized Ukrainian territories.

If the current trend continues, I think it's inevitable that Putin will resort to helter-skelter use of tactical nukes. I think Putin will risk almost literally burning the whole world to the ground before he retreats from Ukraine.

I also don't think that's justification for letting him have his way with Ukraine.

Potential US responses to the Russian use of non-strategic nuclear weapons in Ukraine

Responding in-kind to a Russian nuclear attack against Ukraine or caving to nuclear coercion would clearly be unwise, but the other US response options have risks and uncertainties that make one thing obvious: Russian use of a nuclear weapon in Ukraine would greatly increase the likelihood of...

thebulletin.org

 

[MT15]

You don't think Russia losing 87% of the troops they started the war with has weakened them?

Russia has lost 87% of troops it had prior to start of Ukraine war, according to US intelligence assessment | CNN Politics

Russia has lost a staggering 87 percent of the total number of active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching its invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks, a source familiar with a declassified US intelligence assessment provided to Congress told CNN.

www.cnn.com

Not only that, they have taken similar losses in tanks. They have also failed to keep most of the original territory they took in the first push. And a whole lot of military age men have left Russia.

The idea that Russia hasn’t been weakened is completely absurd. They have been weakened significantly in every imaginable way. We haven’t even discussed financial consequences.

 

[SaintForLife]

So your contention is that Russia hasn’t been weakened by the Ukraine invasion? Just so we are clear what you are saying.

Not in the way that they claimed at the beginning of the war. That's why they are now trying to redefine success.

Redefining Success in Ukraine

A new strategy must balance means and ends.

www.foreignaffairs.com

 

[SaintForLife]

You don't think Russia losing 87% of the troops they started the war with has weakened them?

Russia has lost 87% of troops it had prior to start of Ukraine war, according to US intelligence assessment | CNN Politics

Russia has lost a staggering 87 percent of the total number of active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching its invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks, a source familiar with a declassified US intelligence assessment provided to Congress told CNN.

www.cnn.com

According to an anonymous intelligence official. The same intelligence officials that assured us that the counteroffensive would work and was working? Yeah okay.

 

[MT15]

Basically, SFL, you are running a rigged game. Shame on us for playing along.

Any source that contradicts the Russian narrative that you prefer is simply accused of lying or being a “tool of the military-industrial complex”. And I do mean ANY source.

Meanwhile you eagerly believe anything your Twitter grifters tell you is true. It’s ridiculous.

 

[SaintForLife]

Basically, SFL, you are running a rigged game. Shame on us for playing along.

If running a rigged game is saying we shouldn't believe the same people(intelligence sources) that were obviously lying to us about the counteroffensive and acting as if Ukraine had a chance to beat Russia, then I guess I'm guilty.

Any source that contradicts the Russian narrative that you prefer is simply accused of lying or being a “tool of the military-industrial complex”. And I do mean ANY source.

Meanwhile you eagerly believe anything your Twitter grifters tell you is true. It’s ridiculous.

You seem upset that people don't believe the anonymous intelligence sources that have been lying for as long as I can remember.

 

[MT15]

If running a rigged game is saying we shouldn't believe the same people(intelligence sources) that were obviously lying to us about the counteroffensive and acting as if Ukraine had a chance to beat Russia, then I guess I'm guilty.

You seem upset that people don't believe the anonymous intelligence sources that have been lying for as long as I can remember.

First, these intelligence source didn’t really believe that Ukraine could beat Russia. That wasn’t the expectation going in. Ukraine surprised everyone, favorably, and Russia’s military proved to be far weaker than expected and rife with corruption (go figure).

Intelligence sources have adjusted to a changing situation as they should. But to you that is evidence of lying and a conspiracy. It’s ridiculous.

 

[Bigdaddysaints]

First, these intelligence source didn’t really believe that Ukraine could beat Russia. That wasn’t the expectation going in. Ukraine surprised everyone, favorably, and Russia’s military proved to be far weaker than expected and rife with corruption (go figure).

Intelligence sources have adjusted to a changing situation as they should. But to you that is evidence of lying and a conspiracy. It’s ridiculous.

yea, all media sources were saying Ukraine was gonna fall within a week. then we found out farmers were stealing Russian tanks faster than the Ukraine military could destroy them.. SFL is foolish to believe that this hasn't PROVEN Russia is not a military power House without the use of nuclear weapons. they could not stand toe to toe with any major country in the world in military combat.

 

[efil4]

yea, all media sources were saying Ukraine was gonna fall within a week. then we found out farmers were stealing Russian tanks faster than the Ukraine military could destroy them.. SFL is foolish to believe that this hasn't PROVEN Russia is not a military power House without the use of nuclear weapons. they could not stand toe to toe with any major country in the world in military combat.

Russian "winning" - this is from one unit, in one day.

Yall wasting your time and energy with that shill.



Just in Krynky alone thru today ( since the UAF offensive to take Krynky )

Whole bunch of winning...

 

[MT15]

Shocking…..not

 

[MT15]

This is good news.

 

[Bigdaddysaints]

This is good news.

only one would attempt it.. and we all know who..

 

[DaveXA]

only one would attempt it.. and we all know who..

And there is certainly at least one here who would applaud the attempt.

 

[zztop]

grim read

Ukrainian Marines on ‘Suicide Mission’ in Crossing the Dnipro River

Soldiers frustrated by positive reports from Ukrainian officials break their silence, describing the effort as brutalizing and, ultimately, futile.

www.nytimes.com

 

[SaintForLife]

yea, all media sources were saying Ukraine was gonna fall within a week. then we found out farmers were stealing Russian tanks faster than the Ukraine military could destroy them.. SFL is foolish to believe that this hasn't PROVEN Russia is not a military power House without the use of nuclear weapons. they could not stand toe to toe with any major country in the world in military combat.

Ukraine can win. Don’t let Putin scare us.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/05/02/west-should-not-fear-russia-putin-escalation-threat-ukraine-war/

 

[SaintForLife]

Shocking…..not

Do yall not do any digging about these organizations that keep getting things wrong?