General Election 2024 Harris vs Trump (4 Viewers)

[SamAndreas]

Today it begins, Kamala has reached the point that she's the Democratic Party nominee:

There's video from today. this link has video from her first public appearance since Biden endorsed her:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/22/live-updates-harris-democrats-biden-drops-out-trump-campaign.html

She spent yesterday on the telephone for most of the day. I read that yesterday that she called the party leaders in all 50 states. That would take me three days.

She's renamed her YouTube channel, that's the where to go for video: https://www.youtube.com/@kamalaharris

This is her video on her channel from two hours ago:



To play it, start it, and then move it up to 5:47. This was one of those live videos which don't start at zero.

I've named this thread General Election 2024 Harris vs Trump

Trump needs an introduction post as well, a MAGA suporter ought to write it: @Farb, @SaintForLife , @Others, calling for someone to please introduce your GOP candidate for this 2024 general election thread.

 

[Optimus Prime]

 

[brandon]

Guess we have the 26 blue wave to look forward to

Also way early Speculating on 28

Whitmer? Newsom? Buttigieg? Shapiro? Wes Moore?

How quaint of you to assume we're going to have an election in 28.

 

[Lapaz]

Well, if we don't do any self-reflection, then we'll be in the same place 4 years from not...possibly.

That said, it's also possible that people with realize they made a mistake in voting for Trump when they see the mess the Republicans make, and I have no doubt it will be a huge mess.

The question is how fast will the mess manifest itself, because there is usually a lag between policies and laws, and their impacts. Will Republicans be able to blame someone else? If Democrats win the House in 2026, they'll get the blame. Republican voters have a hard time seeing past their noses.

 

[DaveXA]

The thing is an old white man, or a rich white man, or a black man, or a gay white man probably would not have gotten all the votes that Harris got.

Too many people make the false assumption that another candidate would have gotten all of the votes that Harris got and then some more.

It very rarely works that way and it's something that can not be known until we figure out time travel and a way to avoid time paradoxes so we can run controlled time experiments in which we go back in time and change just one variable to see the new outcome. Are we able to do that, because I'm pretty sure we aren't able to do that yet?

Ultimately, we don't know who gets more or less votes in the hypotheticals. It's a fool's errand to think we can know. That said, the Party doing some self reflection between now and mid-terms is the only thing that can be done. If that means tweaking some of their positions to draw a broader number of people, then you make that hard choice. If it means picking someone else who can pull together a coalition broad enough to win national elections, then you do it. The Party has to have the pulse of the country, and unfortunately they took for granted all of the momentum they had after Roe was overturned. I think that momentum was real, but it was squandered here. I don't know fully how it happened, but here we are.

 

[RobF]

First, I agreed largely with what you said in your first post. That said, that's only half the story. And the other half needs to be self evaluation. It's sort of like the Saints not having the self-awareness to realize they needed a new coach and had to lose to one of the worst teams before finally admitting the coach needed to be replaced.

The DNC and party needs to figure the way forward. It's going to be a super tough 4 years. Let's not keep chopping wood and let's learn from the mistakes made. Yes, the Republican party and MAGA deserves the bulk of the blame, but we're all part of this and need to find a way forward.

I'm not sure what the way forward is. The underlying problems are deep, long-standing, and not easily solved. What can the Democrats do in terms of a candidate and policy that will overcome systematic misrepresentations and lies about their candidates and policies? How can they even convey that candidates and policies matter to an electorate that seems unwilling to engage with that at all? How can they convey that a situation perceived as being less than ideal is still better than it would be under their opponent, both in terms of the present and the future, if people aren't engaging?

How do you fix the problems of partisan media? How do you fix the problems of media that tries so hard to not appear to be be partisan that it ends up also being partisan by presenting objectively false arguments as being equivalent or as relevant as truthful ones? How do you fix a feedback loop between this and social media? How do you stop any of this being subject to the whims of billionaires, especially when those same billionaires are funding politics as well?

Feels like the solution is very much a, "Well, I wouldn't start from here," problem.

Take the UK. It's not as bad here, but the same problems are manifest. Labour defeated the Conservatives in the last election, but largely because the Conservatives repeatedly failed in so many ways and so badly they lost much of their support. Granted, "waiting for the other guys to screw up," is a way forward, but it's not a reliable way forward, nor is it sustainable. Labour, meanwhile, took a "don't rock the boat" approach and ran a pretty meek campaign. So we now have a Labour party that's not anywhere near as distinct from the Conservative party that it just replaced as it should be, that's struggling with its own unpopularity as a result, and that may struggle to win re-election next time around. Meanwhile the Conservatives are, if anything, heading further right in the 'culture wars' direction. It's not great.

When they do take, or even consider, bolder, firmer, positions, even ones that are generally popular with the electorate - speaking very generally, think of some of the policies of Bernie Sanders or Jeremy Corbyn - it seems to be undermined by their own party. The resulting outcome tends to have a, "Things are fine, we'd make them, y'know, a bit better? Not a lot better. But maybe a bit," vibe. This might - arguably - be realistic, but it's not necessarily what people want to hear and vote for, especially when what actually reaches a lot of people is, "They'll wreck the economy and your neighbourhood, also they hate babies and pets," regardless.

So while my personal inclination is to think that they need to adopt bold, firm, policies, that do not give in to populism but address the underlying problems, counter false narratives and promote reality, and shift populism instead, clearly communicated, with unified messaging and little to no dissent within the party, preferably fronted by a likable and highly skilled leader and communicator... I'm not sure they're actually going to be able to do that.

 

[efil4]

I heard on the radio that something like 67% of voters who were surveyed as part of exit polling categorised the performance of the US economy as below average or worse, when objectively, it is presently in good shape.

The problem with inflation is while it might be in the target range now, the price of goods doesn’t revert to the pre-inflationary figure. So it was an issue that I suppose Biden/Harris could never really get out in front of.

Having said all that, while the recriminations might be playing out for the Democrats now around candidate selection and campaign messaging, maybe people just need to come to terms with the reality that a very significant portion of the American population wants to be ruled by a strongman with clear fascist tendencies.

As a friend of mine eloquently put it:

“They are not voting for Trump because they haven’t been heard or reached out to. They’ve heard what they want to hear, and they have made a conscious, overt choice of fascism. It is what they want. They want to be able to punch down, to marginalise, to hate, to fear. It is the entire pitch, honestly and brazenly copped to by Trump, and these voters are making a clear declaration that they want fascism.

…

You can’t ‘reach across the aisle’ to these voters. Because all you are doing in their eyes is showing weakness. Compromise is for losers, policy is for nerds, foreign issues are for coastal elites, and anything that does not further entrench and support the white, Christian patriarchy, preferably at the expense of women, people of colour and any other minority, is radical left woke mind virus. So you can never have climate action, universal health care or primary school kids not riddled with bullets from semi-automatic weapons.

Not because they don’t know better or haven’t been heard. It’s because it’s what they want.“

SPOT
the
!@#@#
ON.

There is even a term for that segment of the population you just described- non-college educated whites ( and i think SOME college educated but aggrieved whites )

There is a sizeable part of the population in suburban/rural areas that are aggrieved at their "station" in life. Promised so much for so long, yet never able to achieve. They cannot internalize this so it HAS to be someone elses fault. Not them for not achieving more. Nope.

Trump has tapped into that reserve and opened the spigot. And this is the result of allowing that sentiment to flow, unabated, into the national psyche.

I have clients that tell me every single day how they have no work because of "insert nationality here". Yet, they look to charge client 40% MORE for a job to make a 40% profit instead of a 20% profit. But its not their fault. Its always the "others".

I had a 10 ft section of fence to take down/put back up. Called the same folks that installed in 2019. They wanted, no joke, $1000 to send a guy out to sawzaw for 10 min, move that section over and once work was done, come back out and re-install.

$1000 dollars. "says well i gotta pay that employee, cover his WC, gas etc" - your office is 15 min from my home. I know WC rates- dont feed me that BS.

I got a handyman to do for $250.

but same fence guy will then moan about " i cant get work". Rinse, repeat until it becomes someone elses fault. Not their own bad business.

We have a problem in the US with this thought cycle and i dont know how you break it.

 

[RobF]

The question is how fast will the mess manifest itself, because there is usually a lag between policies and laws, and their impacts. Will Republicans be able to blame someone else? If Democrats win the House in 2026, they'll get the blame. Republican voters have a hard time seeing past their noses.

I honestly feel like the best hope in the short term is that they mess it up so badly - like Liz Truss here - that enough of their own party turn on them to stop them being able to do more damage.

I also feel like that's a very faint hope. Not the messing it up that badly part, the significant part of their own party standing up to stop it part.

 

[DaveXA]

Was Harris a better quality candidate than Trump? That was the only choice on the ballot. The choice was not "Harris is perfect" or Trump. It was simply who is better, Harris or Trump. Too many voters chose Trump as a better quality candidate over Harris.

I mean, ultimately, the country still isn't ready to elect a woman for President. We've had 2 in the last 3 election cycles and both lost in the same manner. This was 2016 all over again. It sucks, and I hate that the country can't vote for a woman President, but it is what it is. Maybe the answer is a Gavin Newsom type and hope that at some point in the future the country is ready to choose a woman for president.

 

[Lapaz]

My man was on one.

He has a point about the donor class, but what is the alternative? This country's campaigns run on money. We have to work within the system to change it. It is progressive change.

 

[DaveXA]

Speak for yourself. No one who voted for Harris deserves Trump and the Republicans or any harm they end up inflicting.

We don't deserve that, sure. But the only thing we can do now is reevaluate our election strategies because it was an abject failure in 2024.

 

[Devildog]

Once you lose rights, it is damn near impossible to get them back.

 

[SamAndreas]

So, the bottom line is what?

That enough people voted for the azzhat that reinforced their hatred?
That enough people are flocking negligent of their civic duty?
That enough people are ignorant of economics?
That enough people don’t care about democracy?

The Democratic Party has, on occasion, run good campaigns. Clinton twice, Obama twice and Biden once.

So, what changed?

Nothing. Polls are bullschlitz whether 535 or Ipsos or NYT or whatever other one. The problem lies elsewhere. It lies in a society so screwed up that it can barely function. It is a society, to borrow from the Cold War days, that is Upper Volta with nukes. It lies in a people who have the attention span of a gnat with ADHD. It lies in a lack of critical thinking.

Actions have consequences and the law of unintended consequences aka karma is not simply a beach, it is a vindictive, angry, murderous beach.

The Democratic Party needs to totally clean house. They need to find people who get it. Until they do they will continue to flounder. What is the “it”? It is the need to understand and grasp with both hands, heart and mind that politics in this schlitzhole is bloodsport. The sooner they realize that they must cut out the heart of the Republican Party and eat it the sooner they will start to win. They also must focus on rebuilding their party from the ground up. That includes media. The mainstream media must be cast to the side as it no longer serves any purpose. They must build a multi-pronged media attack machine aimed at every single Republican politician.

The Democratic Party failed. Worse, the American people failed.

The world is worse off today than it was yesterday. The marginalization of the United States starts today.

So, what is the bottom line?

Stupidity ruled.

You seem to be readapting well, but you didn't get enough sleep.

Do you remember that time back in the spring of 2017?

I went to bed, got to sleep, and that's when I woke up this morning. I eventually hit the ground running then the last time, and it seems I've already achieved that better forward starting place this time.

Time for a song, the sun will be coming soon:

 

[Infoman]

Saw this coming when I posted (for the 1st time in months) yesterday... Time to look in the mirror... Kill the 2 party system... It's obvious the majority of average Americans don't give a **** about Ideology Buckets...

Nor do they buy the hyperbole, and obviously exaggerated narratives.

They care about and vote for what they always have (Money, Family, Security) ... and if your candidate fails to deliver... no amount of gaslighting will keep them from voting for another candidate by majority.... the electorate has changed... gone are the days of reliable voting blocks based on race, gender, and religion....

If you want to win, you better have something tangible for everybody... or they will elect anybody else that's different... get with the program.

 

[J-DONK]

High inflatation was a world wide thing post covid. A lot of incumbent parties lost this time around.

IMO the two major mistakes were:

1. Not seperating herself from Biden enough.
2. Embracing people like the Cheney's. Whoever thought that was a good idea should be done with politics for life.

If Biden doesn't run, and gives Dem's a primary. You get a candidate who doesn't have to run with any baggage. I have no idea if you win, but it's safe to say you do way better then this outcome. What a disaster.

 

[efil4]

Saw this coming when I posted yesterday... Time to look in the mirror... Kill the 2 party system... It's obvious the majority of average Americans don't give a **** about Ideology Buckets... They care about and vote for what they always have... and if your candidate fails to deliver... no amount of gaslighting will keep them from voting for another candidate by majority.... the electorate has changed... gone are the days of reliable voting blocks based on race, gender, and religion.... If you want to win, you better have something tangible for everybody... or they will elect anybody else that's different... get with the program.

which is?

 

[cuddlemonkey]

First, I agreed largely with what you said in your first post. That said, that's only half the story. And the other half needs to be self evaluation. It's sort of like the Saints not having the self-awareness to realize they needed a new coach and had to lose to one of the worst teams before finally admitting the coach needed to be replaced.

The DNC and party needs to figure the way forward. It's going to be a super tough 4 years. Let's not keep chopping wood and let's learn from the mistakes made. Yes, the Republican party and MAGA deserves the bulk of the blame, but we're all part of this and need to find a way forward.

They nominated a legitimate candidate in a very difficult situation and rallied behind her. She had a credible running mate and the pair showed time and again that they have empathy and they have a plan and a vision. That's the path forward. The problem is not the DNC. The problem is an electorate that looks at Donald Trump and thinks, "yeah, that's a presidential guy".

 

[Optimus Prime]

I'd also blame the media for the all the both sides, fair and balanced, sanewashing

Biden flubbing a word dominates the news for days, is he too old, is he fit?

Trump saying people who don't agree with him are the enemy within, people are vermin, migrants aren't even people, standing and swaying to music for 40 minutes

And the response, "yeah he probably should have said that, but that's Trump being Trump, what are ya gonna do?"

 

[faceman]

Inflation is a term of art because economics is a term of art. People whined about inflation but inflation is measured by a near useless group of pricing. For instance, many note that PE has bought up rental units and since the goal is profitability which is not arbitrarily price. What, exactly, would the Federal government do about that? What about “affordable housing” which includes single family houses?

The intervention into the rigged so-called free market would be massive.

What about food prices? And gasoline? Well, gas prices are damn near meaningless. They are predicated on the price of oil. And the Orange Idiot has said “drill, drill, drill on day one” which will do nothing. We are already drilling and producing more than anyone else. We are also exporting oil and refined product. As for food? How many food inputs are commodities and subject to speculation, natural disaster? What will happen if the Orange Idiot deports all immigrants?

As for corporate profits? Everyone yelped about gouging and undoubtedly some probably went on. However, companies set gross profit percentage targets. If I have posted this little example in the past then my apologies. If a company sells a product that costs $1 and wants to make 50% gross profit percentage then they sell it for $2. If the cost goes up to $1.50 then they have to sell it at $3.00. The gross profit dollars automatically increase more than the dollar cost changes. Since food is controlled by an oligopolistic system with multiple intermediates between processing and retail selling prices are manipulated to provide “choices” while maintaining margin percentages in the aggregate.

Get ready for inflation to jump. The dollar rose on the news of Trump winning.

Of bigger concern is the possibility of the dollar being replaced as reserve currency. It won’t be crypto because crypto isn’t money despite the tech bros fever dreams.

Yes, sadly many people believed Trump was soley responsible for 1.50 a gallon for gas. They were right in a way,but not
for the reason they think.