General Election 2024 Harris vs Trump (16 Viewers)

[SamAndreas]

Today it begins, Kamala has reached the point that she's the Democratic Party nominee:

There's video from today. this link has video from her first public appearance since Biden endorsed her:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/22/live-updates-harris-democrats-biden-drops-out-trump-campaign.html

She spent yesterday on the telephone for most of the day. I read that yesterday that she called the party leaders in all 50 states. That would take me three days.

She's renamed her YouTube channel, that's the where to go for video: https://www.youtube.com/@kamalaharris

This is her video on her channel from two hours ago:



To play it, start it, and then move it up to 5:47. This was one of those live videos which don't start at zero.

I've named this thread General Election 2024 Harris vs Trump

Trump needs an introduction post as well, a MAGA suporter ought to write it: @Farb, @SaintForLife , @Others, calling for someone to please introduce your GOP candidate for this 2024 general election thread.

 

[coldseat]

Maybe some of our Spanish speakers can opine about this as, is the poster correct?

That is a great ad! Extremely culturally competent for Puerto Ricans, very much in our culture, language and lexicon. It strikes at the heart of what it means to be Puerto Rican, our pride in our island and culture.

 

[Bigdaddysaints]

when this is the worse stuff they can throw at you, you know they are desperate...
Tim Walz allegedly told high school football player struggling with crime and alcohol to keep playing

Former Mankato West linebacker Dan Clement told The Ringer that he began to experiment with alcohol when he was in high school. Then, the summer between his junior and senior year, Clement said he was arrested multiple times for underage drinking. Clement had a suspension from football to begin his final high school season and said he decided "I’m just not going to play at all."
But Clement said Walz repeatedly approached him in the hallways that year and told the teenager, "We need you."
"He knew I was struggling," Clement told the outlet, adding that Walz told him, "I don’t care about that other stuff."

The caring attention he gave, that positive support can pull you through really dark times in your life," Clement said, adding that he told Walz,"I’m leaning on you. I’m trusting you here. I think partying is a better idea. You don’t think so. And I’m going to trust you on that.’
"And he was right. I was wrong. And later in life, when I continued to do that, when I continued to trust other people who love me, then it led my life in this beautiful direction. Just like it did back then."

MSN

 

[MT15]

Great ad.

 

[J-DONK]

This isnt supporting my stance that it will go away- but this is too funny not to post.

the driver of the truck just posted his video. The sobbing toward end seems appropriate. I was waiting for him to say "Wrestling is REAL to me"

"He hopped in no problem"

Video of Donald Trump "struggling" to enter garbage truck goes viral

One social media user wrote that former President Donald Trump had "deteriorated so much that he now moves like a drunk."

www.newsweek.com

 

[efil4]

Great ad.

as a Dad of two young, beautiful, smart and strong girls, who have the whole world ahead of them, this one brings it home.

 

[efil4]

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

That’s a parody account. He’s a comedian. Apologies if you knew that already.

Charlie Kirk bought it...hook, line and sinker

 

[Optimus Prime]

With nearly 60 million ballots already cast, everyone interested in the presidential election is trying to figure out where the race stands.

Despite so many votes having been cast, it is hard to know what it means. Many more people have yet to vote, and exactly how many there will be or how they will split are unknown. But there is one measure in the early voting data that could be more suggestive about the final results: the number of new voters who have already voted.

And an NBC News Decision Desk analysis of state voter data shows that as of Oct. 30, there are signs of an influx of new female Democratic voters in Pennsylvania and new male Republican voters in Arizona, two of the most important swing states.

The early votes of new voters — voters who did not show up in 2020 — are of particular interest because they are votes that could change what happens in 2024 relative to the last presidential election. (Who voted in 2020 and doesn’t show up this time is also important, but it’s impossible to know before Election Day.)

Already, the number of new voters in many of the seven closest battleground states exceeds the 2020 margin between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. In Pennsylvania, for example, Biden beat Trump in 2020 by 80,555 votes. This year, over 100,000 new voters have already cast ballots in Pennsylvania, with more to come.

We can’t know how these new voters voted, but looking at who they are can provide hints about how 2024 might swing relative to 2020. Party registration does not perfectly predict a voter’s choice, but new voters who choose to register as Democrats are more likely to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris than not, and new voters who register as Republicans are more likely to vote for Trump. As a result, in the swing states where voters can formally register for a party (Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania), the new voters affiliated with a party may provide some hints about the 2024 election.

(In Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin, where voters don’t officially register with a party, the best we can do to predict the partisanship of new voters relies on local voting patterns and demographics — data that can be quite noisy and sometimes wrong.)

The gender of new voters in these states is also public data, shining light on the relationship between gender and party registration among new voters amid an election hinging on a number of political issues related to gender, such as abortion. (Some states also offer a “nonbinary” or “other” option on their voter registration forms, with a small number of voters using that so far.)

Female Democrats dominate new voter numbers from Pennsylvania​

Let’s start in Pennsylvania — not only because it is thought to be the closest state according to the polls, but also because the number of new voters who have cast ballots there has already exceeded the 2020 margin. If everyone from 2020 voted for the same candidate again, these new voters would decide the race.


The data out of Pennsylvania shows large differences in the number of votes cast by new voters, both by party registration and by gender. More new voters are registered Democrats than Republicans, and new female voters are driving this partisan gap. The new male voters are only slightly more likely to be Democrats than Republicans, but among new female voters, Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1.

The number of new voters who decide not to officially register with either party complicates the picture, though, as the number of new unaffiliated voters is nearly the same as the gap between the number of new Democrats and new Republicans. That means the unaffiliated vote could either erase or expand the advantage that registered Democrats currently have among new early voters.

The opposite trend in Arizona: Male Republicans lead the way​

Turning to Arizona, the opposite pattern emerges. While there are fewer new voters than in Pennsylvania — in part because early voting in Arizona started later — the 2020 margin in Arizona was also much smaller: only 10,457 votes.

Already, the number of new voters (86,231 as of Tuesday) is more than eight times the Biden-Trump margin in 2020 in Arizona. And the biggest share of that group of new voters in Arizona so far are male Republicans.


New female voters are also slightly more likely to be registered Republicans than Democrats in the state, unlike in Pennsylvania. But the Republican advantage in new Arizona voters so far is being driven largely by male voters.

Still, once again, the number of new voters who chose not to affiliate with either party is considerable, and how they choose to vote could easily change the apparent Republican registration advantage among new voters who are voting early................

What the early voting data shows about new voters — a group that could swing the election

Most early voters are regular voters, but the new voters turning out early include large numbers of Democratic women in Pennsylvania and Republican men in Arizona.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Optimus Prime]

Long-time GOP strategist Margaret Hoover claimed former President Donald Trump's campaign could be scrambling due to concerning internal polling and early voting data, which she says may suggest missed turnout targets.

In a Wednesday evening panel on "The Source" hosted by CNN’s Kaitlan Collins, the GOP campaign strategist wondered whether the campaign’s own detailed internals were spelling doom.

“I think if you’re the Trump campaign, you’re not looking at CNN’s numbers, you’re looking at your own internals,” Hoover said. “And I honestly think their internals are actually giving them pause.”

Hoover noted that campaigns have the resources for more sophisticated polling operations than media outlets, but trends like turnout and enthusiasm were already easy to glimpse.

“They’re probably seeing the same things that you guys are talking about, which is that there is a real groundswell in the early vote, there is real enthusiasm, which is hard to measure,” Hoover noted.

Since early voting began, women have cast ballots at a much higher rate than men, a signal Kamala Harris's campaign is optimistic about, per Politico. Harris polled roughly 14 points better than Trump among women in a recent ABC/Ipsos poll.

“I have heard from Republicans that there is concern at the Trump campaign, amongst the operatives that actually do know the political wherewithal that the turnout and enthusiasm numbers are not where they need to be,” the Bush-era operative said.

The Trump campaign, seemingly optimistic about its chances in the crucial swing states, is spending the final stretch of the race rallying in New Mexico and Virginia, states the ex-president lost by at least 10-point margins in 2020.............

"There's a real groundswell": GOP strategist says internal polls are "concerning" for Trump campaign

Margaret Hoover, a Bush-era GOP strategist, says Republicans are worried over internal turnout and early vote data

www.salon.com

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

Hey, he says her name right at the end! He's so exhausted that he forgot to mispronounce her Kamala's name.