General Election 2024 Biden vs Trump (2 Viewers)

[SteveSBrickNJ]

As we head toward the summer and the National Party Conventions, it might be handy to have a thread focused on the upcoming matchup of current President Biden vs Former President Trump.
As of April 28,2024 , CNN's poll shows Trump leading. Yet polls are not always accurate and they are constantly changing.
Feel free to use this thread for all things relating to Biden vs Trump.
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CNN Poll: Trump maintains lead over Biden in 2024 matchup as views on their presidencies diverge

Donald Trump continues to hold an advantage over President Joe Biden as the campaign – and Trump’s criminal trial – move forward, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. And in the coming rematch, opinions about the first term of each man vying for a second four years in the White House...

www.yahoo.com

 

[SaintForLife]

 

[SaintForLife]

President Biden’s physician met with Parkinson’s disease specialist in White House

“It’s highly likely they were talking about Biden,” said former White House Doctor Ronny Jackson.

nypost.com

 

[SamAndreas]

That misses the point entirely. Harry Enten knows better than to make that apples to oranges comparison. The reason it's an apples to oranges case is many of the established well experienced polling companies which were polling back in 2020 do not exist anymore. Many of the outfits who are currently conducting polls are new inexperienced startup companies.

There is insufficient continuum for that comparison.

 

[Lapaz]

That misses the point entirely. Harry Enten knows better than to make that apples to oranges comparison. The reason it's an apples to oranges case is many of the established well experienced polling companies which were polling back in 2020 do not exist anymore. Many of the outfits who are currently conducting polls are new inexperienced startup companies.

There is insufficient continuum for that comparison.

This justification doesn't make sense. As a democrat, I believe in science and evidence, and claiming that the polls are wrong because the companies don't know what they're doing strains credulity. I think some polls have had problems, but it's nearly all of them. If Biden remains the Democratic candidate, then I'm resigned to Trump becoming president. Whether American democracy survives Trump's tenure will depend on who controls congress during his tenure. If Biden drags down other democrats and democrats lose congress, then the havoc will be almost unimaginable.

 

[J-DONK]

I can not believe I agree with SFL, but this true. Biden is outright lying when he says the polls underestimated him in 2020.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

This justification doesn't make sense. As a democrat, I believe in science and evidence, and claiming that the polls are wrong because the companies don't know what they're doing strains credulity. I think some polls have had problems, but it's nearly all of them. If Biden remains the Democratic candidate, then I'm resigned to Trump becoming president. Whether American democracy survives Trump's tenure will depend on who controls congress during his tenure. If Biden drags down other democrats and democrats lose congress, then the havoc will be almost unimaginable.

Agreed. Happy I'm not the only one seeing this.

Attacking the media and now the numbers... very Trumpish. We can't have it both ways.

 

[SamAndreas]

This justification doesn't make sense. As a democrat, I believe in science and evidence, and claiming that the polls are wrong because the companies don't know what they're doing strains credulity. I think some polls have had problems, but it's nearly all of them. If Biden remains the Democratic candidate, then I'm resigned to Trump becoming president. Whether American democracy survives Trump's tenure will depend on who controls congress during his tenure. If Biden drags down other democrats and democrats lose congress, then the havoc will be almost unimaginable.

I'm not claiming the polls are wrong insomuch as I'm gently suggesting that the Criminal and his gang have control over enough of the polling outfits who still exist that they influence the polling averages.

In my post you quoted above provides additional suggestion, not evidence, that my gentle suggestion about this is shaping up to be what it is.

The fact that I see Harry Enteen an individual who I know, knows better than to do what I saw him doing is what I base that on.

About you belief in science and evidence, I share those beliefs with you. It was while studying Physics that I took two 3 hour statistic courses because they were general requirements for that science degree.

It is through my knowledge of science and sistical math that I have come to suspect that the averages of the polls are being manipulated. I know they are breaking with the theory, which is the underlying basis for polling. The science behind polling has been violated by what they appear to be doing.

 

[MT15]

Agreed. Happy I'm not the only one seeing this.

Attacking the media and now the numbers... very Trumpish. We can't have it both ways.

I think polls have been incorrect all in one direction since 2020. I don’t know why he thinks the polls underestimated him, except for maybe at the end when it was rated extremely close, whereas it wasn’t all that close electorally. Anyway that’s splitting hairs.

And pointing out that media hasn’t exactly been treating the candidates the same is not “Trumpish” it is just pointing out a fact. When the NYT runs 192 stories about Biden’s fitness for office compared to less than 10 about Trump’s fitness for office, that’s worth mentioning.

Just because people don’t agree with you doesn’t mean they are Trumpish. That’s a low blow, GA.

 

[SamAndreas]

I can not believe I agree with SFL, but this true. Biden is outright lying when he says the polls underestimated him in 2020.

I laughed because you have overlooked the possibility that Biden truthfully stated his statement about polls, and the fact that Harry Enteen says otherwise overlooks the fact that Biden had internal campaign polls that Harry Enten never saw, nor will ever see.



I think you might be coining that was lying about it part about it, I don't recall Enten quite taking it that far as to directly say that Biden lied.

Harry Enten also knows about the better quality internal campaign polls he doesn't see, because I've seen him discuss the ramifications of that in the past. So he would know that he is unable to show that Biden was lying about it.

The media fact checks in general are awful about equating disagreement over numbers as being lies, when that isn't necessarily so.

Suppose one person sees, and then repeats inflation numbers which are different than the ones the fact checker uses to check him. That's often what it is, but all too often the so called fact checker will call that disagreement over what the numbers are, a lie.

It overlooks that very real possibility that the person was telling the truth insofar as they thought the truth to be.

 

[SamAndreas]

Agreed. Happy I'm not the only one seeing this.

Attacking the media and now the numbers... very Trumpish. We can't have it both ways.

Overturning or negating our primary election results is what is "Trumpish".

 

[Lapaz]

I'm not claiming the polls are wrong insomuch as I'm gently suggesting that the Criminal and his gang have control over enough of the polling outfits who still exist that they influence the polling averages.

In my post you quoted above provides additional suggestion, not evidence, that my gentle suggestion about this is shaping up to be what it is.

The fact that I see Harry Enteen an individual who I know, knows better than to do what I saw him doing is what I base that on.

About you belief in science and evidence, I share those beliefs with you. It was while studying Physics that I took two 3 hour statistic courses because they were general requirements for that science degree.

It is through my knowledge of science and sistical math that I have come to suspect that the averages of the polls are being manipulated. I know they are breaking with the theory, which is the underlying basis for polling. The science behind polling has been violated by what they appear to be doing.

I believe there may be some overcorrection occurring, but the amount of overcorrection would have to be outrageous. I know there have been some recent surprises where democrats have over performed the polls, primarily due to abortion, but the fact that almost all purple state democrats are polling several points ahead of Biden suggests that there is a real problem with Biden, and not the democratic message. I have a sliver of hope that the polls are outrageously wrong, but I would rather someone else took over the top of the ticket so we could focus on that message, despite thinking that Biden has done a very good job.

 

[Lapaz]

I laughed because you have overlooked the possibility that Biden truthfully stated his statement about polls, and the fact that Harry Enteen says otherwise overlooks the fact that Biden had internal campaign polls that Harry Enten never saw, nor will ever see.



I think you might be coining that was lying about it part about it, I don't recall Enten quite taking it that far as to directly say that Biden lied.

Harry Enten also knows about the better quality internal campaign polls he doesn't see, because I've seen him discuss the ramifications of that in the past. So he would know that he is unable to show that Biden was lying about it.

The media fact checks in general are awful about equating disagreement over numbers as being lies, when that isn't necessarily so.

Suppose one person sees, and then repeats inflation numbers which are different than the ones the fact checker uses to check him. That's often what it is, but all too often the so called fact checker will call that disagreement over what the numbers are, a lie.

It overlooks that very real possibility that the person was telling the truth insofar as they thought the truth to be.

But I think Enteen was saying that polls showed Biden way ahead of Trump throughout the 2020 campaign, so how were the polls underestimating Biden in 2020? Some state polls were wrong, but nationally the polls were almost perfect, which means Biden won the national vote by several million. The polls are now showing him losing or tied in the national poll, which means an electoral loss for democrats.

 

[Lapaz]

I think polls have been incorrect all in one direction since 2020. I don’t know why he thinks the polls underestimated him, except for maybe at the end when it was rated extremely close, whereas it wasn’t all that close electorally. Anyway that’s splitting hairs.

And pointing out that media hasn’t exactly been treating the candidates the same is not “Trumpish” it is just pointing out a fact. When the NYT runs 192 stories about Biden’s fitness for office compared to less than 10 about Trump’s fitness for office, that’s worth mentioning.

Just because people don’t agree with you doesn’t mean they are Trumpish. That’s a low blow, GA.

Before the frenzy of Biden's fitness the last couple of weeks, I recall seeing lots of stories about Trump's fitness. There were some stories about Biden's fitness before the debate, but it was more balanced. The problem is that Biden needed to change the narrative to eliminate the concern about his age, but instead he reinforced what was already a widely held belief. To compound it, Trump's biggest problem has been his lack of control, and he was very controlled while he lied through the debate. Everyone knows he's a pathological liar, but he came off as a composed liar, so it was a net positive for him.

 

[Taurus]

I'm not claiming the polls are wrong insomuch as I'm gently suggesting that the Criminal and his gang have control over enough of the polling outfits who still exist that they influence the polling averages.

In my post you quoted above provides additional suggestion, not evidence, that my gentle suggestion about this is shaping up to be what it is.

The fact that I see Harry Enteen an individual who I know, knows better than to do what I saw him doing is what I base that on.

About you belief in science and evidence, I share those beliefs with you. It was while studying Physics that I took two 3 hour statistic courses because they were general requirements for that science degree.

It is through my knowledge of science and sistical math that I have come to suspect that the averages of the polls are being manipulated. I know they are breaking with the theory, which is the underlying basis for polling. The science behind polling has been violated by what they appear to be doing.

Yeah. What I'm seeing is a big picture that's at odds with the sum of the little pictures.
Women hate Trump. Minorities hate Trump, educated people hate Trump.

Yet somehow he's leading? Any candidate as underwater with 51% of the electorate as Trump is ought to be getting curbstomped in the overall polls.

So somebody is getting it incredibly wrong or they're cooking the books to please Cheato Fuehrer

 

[SamAndreas]

But I think Enteen was saying that polls showed Biden way ahead of Trump throughout the 2020 campaign, so how were the polls underestimating Biden in 2020? Some state polls were wrong, but nationally the polls were almost perfect, which means Biden won the national vote by several million. The polls are now showing him losing or tied in the national poll, which means an electoral loss for democrats.

I've made it clear and have given reasons that I have very little faith in the polling I'm seeing this year. So what you fear is not at all what I fear.

What I fear is that a few too many folks nigglining on about this issue long past it's expiration date will be what might cause a loss for Democrats.

 

[SamAndreas]

Yeah. What I'm seeing is a big picture that's at odds with the sum of the little pictures.
Women hate Trump. Minorities hate Trump, educated people hate Trump.

Yet somehow he's leading? Any candidate as underwater with 51% of the electorate as Trump is ought to be getting curbstomped in the overall polls.

So somebody is getting it incredibly wrong or they're cooking the books to please Cheato Fuehrer

Good reasoning, I feel that disconnect with reality as well.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Just because people don’t agree with you doesn’t mean they are Trumpish. That’s a low blow, GA.

It has nothing to do with agreeing with me. I don't care if anyone agrees with me and you ought to know that about me by now (or so I thought). But the fact that folks here and elsewhere now want to attack the media for their reporting, and attack the numbers, and anything else that appears to support Biden stepping down, yeah, that's Trumpish. No one is saying anything about Trump right now because he's sitting back happy to the tee watching all of this happen for the world to see.

 

[SamAndreas]

Before the frenzy of Biden's fitness the last couple of weeks, I recall seeing lots of stories about Trump's fitness. There were some stories about Biden's fitness before the debate, but it was more balanced. The problem is that Biden needed to change the narrative to eliminate the concern about his age, but instead he reinforced what was already a widely held belief. To compound it, Trump's biggest problem has been his lack of control, and he was very controlled while he lied through the debate. Everyone knows he's a pathological liar, but he came off as a composed liar, so it was a net positive for him.

Take a look at your own words "Before the frenzy of Biden's fitness... ".
You used the word "frenzy." I saw that and grinned. That would perhaps suggest you might have already resolved this deep down inside of your own mind.

If deep down you thought this issue had merit wouldn't you have used the word "issue" instead of "frenzy" to describe it?



All I need to do now to persuade you to my position, is to give you space and time. Happy space and time Lapaz.