First presidential debate (2 Viewers)

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    Optimus Prime

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    Since we usually have a separate thread for these
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    NEW YORK (AP) — President Joe Biden begins an intense period of private preparations Friday at Camp David for what may be the most consequential presidential debate in decades.

    The 81-year-old Democrat’s team is aware that he cannot afford an underwhelming performance when he faces Republican rival Donald Trump for 90 minutes on live television Thursday night. Biden’s team is expecting aggressive attacks on his physical and mental strength, his record on the economy and immigration and even his family.

    Trump, 78 and ever confident, will stay on the campaign trail before going to his Florida estate next week for two days of private meetings as part of an informal prep process.

    The former president’s allies are pushing him to stay focused on his governing plans, but they’re expecting him to be tested by pointed questions about his unrelenting focus on election fraud, his role in the erosion of abortion rights and his unprecedented legal baggage.

    Thursday’s debate on CNN will be full of firsts, with the potential to reshape the presidential race. Never before in the modern era have two presumptive nominees met on the debate stage so early in the general election season. Never before have two White House contenders faced off at such advanced ages, with widespread questions about their readiness.

    And never before has a general election debate participant been saddled with a felony conviction. The debate-stage meeting comes just two weeks before Trump is scheduled to be sentenced on 34 felony counts in his New York hush money trial.

    “You can argue this will be the most important debate, at least in my lifetime,” said Democratic strategist Jim Messina, 54, who managed former President Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign.

    PRESSURE ON BIDEN


    The ground rules for Thursday’s debate, the first of two scheduled meetings, are unusual.

    The candidates agreed to meet at a CNN studio in Atlanta with no audience. Each candidate’s microphone will be muted, except when it’s his turn to speak. No props or prewritten notes will be allowed onstage. The candidates will be given only a pen, a pad of paper and a bottle of water.

    There will be no opening statements. A coin flip determined that Biden would stand at the podium to the viewer’s right, while Trump would deliver the final closing statement.


    The next debate won’t be until September. Any stumbles Thursday will be hard to erase or replace quickly.………..

     
    I never claimed a candidate would win a write in. I said only a red state would try to keep him off, and they don't matter. Incumbent thinks Trump would sue in blue states, and I think that would make him looked scared of his new competition. I think he wouldn't have standing to choose his opponent.
    Trump has already made arrangements to file legal challenges in every state that will be close. Trump will being filing legal challenges in every state the election will be close. Trump will have standing to file those challenges. Those legal challenges will cause problems.

    That's all true no matter what you think.
     
    Forgot about her, because she was the incumbent which made her write campaign atypical.

    Are there any non-incumbents who won a federal write in campaign?
    I didn't claim a write in would win. I said it would probably only happen in red states. Besides, did you read Ballotpedia? The party can replace their candidate until at least the convention. After the convention, some states may attempt to pull the democrat off the ballot, but even then, I doubt it would happen.


    "Replacing a presumptive nominee before the national convention

    The Democratic and Republican parties do not formally nominate candidates until delegates vote at the party's national convention. The Democratic National Convention will take place from August 19-22, 2024, and the Republican National Convention will take place from July 15-18, 2024.

    A party's presumptive nominee, meaning the candidate who receives an estimated majority of delegates after state nominating events, could be replaced at the convention. Delegates could elect a candidate who they were not initially bound to at the time of their state's election. Both state law and party rules govern how a delegate must vote at the national convention, including whether a delegate remains bound to a withdrawn candidate and for how many rounds a delegate remains bound to a candidate.[6]

    Both parties also have delegates who are not bound to a particular candidate at the convention. The Republican Party has a total of 104 unbound delegates, and the Democratic Party has a total of 739 unbound delegates. Democratic unbound delegates can only vote if a convention proceeds past the first round of voting.


    Replacing a nominee between the national convention and the election​

    Both the Democratic and Republican parties have rules governing how to replace a presidential or vice presidential nominee between the party's nominating convention and the November 5, 2024, general election. The section below provides each party's rules on that subject.

    It is important to note, however, that states require political parties to submit names of presidential and vice presidential nominees and presidential electors before election day in order to certify them for the general election ballot. Deadlines vary by state and depend on the election calendar, including early voting, voting by mail, and absentee voting considerations."


    Many state laws bind delegates to Biden, unless he releases them, which is why most acknowledge that he can't be forced out:

     
    I think it’s disingenuous for anybody to argue that keeping the Democratic presidential nominee off the ballot wouldn’t have repercussions. It would just be a matter of how severe those repercussions would be.

    If you start with the scenario where both the Republican and Democratic candidate are on the ballot, and recognize that as the ideal, it can only get worse from there.
    I think it's more about trying to rationalize away anxiety about not knowing what the future will bring, than it is being disingenuous.

    It is definitely foolish to think that legal challenges will not cause problems, even if they aren't successful.
     
    I think it’s disingenuous for anybody to argue that keeping the Democratic presidential nominee off the ballot wouldn’t have repercussions. It would just be a matter of how severe those repercussions would be.

    If you start with the scenario where both the Republican and Democratic candidate are on the ballot, and recognize that as the ideal, it can only get worse from there.
    It might hurt the democrats more, if it were to happen, but only red states would try this. Also, I've posted that parties are legally allowed to switch candidates, once the candidate releases his delegates. It would be illegal for a state to remove the democrat. There is no legal basis for this to actually happen. The suits may come to make Trump looked scared, but the democrat will be on the all state ballots if he is selected before the end of the convention.
     
    I think it's more about trying to rationalize away anxiety about not knowing what the future will bring, than it is being disingenuous.

    It is definitely foolish to think that legal challenges will not cause problems, even if they aren't successful.

    Perhaps. I say disingenuous because I have to think, under any other circumstances, everybody would recognize that, if it were to happen, taking the Democratic presidential nominee off the ballot would have consequences. That’s not something that really seems like it should need to be debated.
     
    From the L.A. Times editorial board:

    Reporting from last night made it sound like Biden out was a done deal. Now reporting makes it sound like it's not a done deal.

    The LA Times jumping into the fray to argue that Trump is the only one who's unfit is a welcome change. I don't say that in defense of Biden, just that Trump's easy skating needs to come to rapidly painful end for him.
     
    Last edited:
    Perhaps. I say disingenuous because I have to think, under any other circumstances, everybody would recognize that, if it were to happen, taking the Democratic presidential nominee off the ballot would have consequences. That’s not something that really seems like it should need to be debated.
    I understand and the absurdity of the argument is the same either way.
     
    It might hurt the democrats more, if it were to happen, but only red states would try this. Also, I've posted that parties are legally allowed to switch candidates, once the candidate releases his delegates. It would be illegal for a state to remove the democrat. There is no legal basis for this to actually happen. The suits may come to make Trump looked scared, but the democrat will be on the all state ballots if he is selected before the end of the convention.

    I’ve been discussing this as it relates to Red States.

    I’m also not making predictions of how likely any consequences are because right now, we just don’t know. As LA has said, there will be lawsuits and then those have to meander their way through a judicial system a lot of us have good reason not to trust.

    I AM NOT offering any of this as an argument against making a candidate change. I am discussing it to both recognize the uncertainty of a decision the party is having to weigh, and examining the potential consequences.
     
    ...did you read Ballotpedia?
    Yes, it's irrelevant to what I've been saying.

    Trump will sue. He will find grounds under each state's laws to sue. That in itself will create problems. If he finds favorable judges the lawsuits will cause more problems.
     
    I didn’t post it because I anticipate it will have an immediate and notable effect on the electorate, I posted it because I think it’s an example of a media outlet making the right argument. Nothing more, nothing less.
    Just waiting to pounce on anything and everything that doesn't look like lock step agreement.
     
    This is not a valid reason in my mind to be concerned about changing the ticket. I doubt it would happen, but if it did, it could help more than hurt.
    This is a hammer seeing everything as a nail problem.

    I don't Incumbent is making an argument against changing the ticket. I know I'm not. What we are saying if the ticket is changed, then we are going to have the problem of the law suits to deal with. We are just acknowledging the factual reality that will happen and it will be a problem. We are not saying that's a reason for not changing the ticket.

    You are so overly rambunctious to argue against Biden staying on the ticket, that you are arguing against Biden staying on the ticket with people who aren't talking about Biden staying on the ticket.
     
    Okay, so they're all white men. The racism comes from the notion that black voters want Biden to stay in the race, and feel like their position is being discounted. I think the implication is that it is racist. Tell me why it matters that it is all white men pictured?
    Here are some other things they have in common: they all range from well-to-do to wealthy. None of them hold elected office and none of them represent voters, they are all in the performative arts in some way, shape or form, and all of them think their opinion is worth more than the voters.
     
    Here are some other things they have in common: they all range from well-to-do to wealthy. None of them hold elected office and none of them represent voters, they are all in the performative arts in some way, shape or form, and all of them think their opinion is worth more than the voters.
    I really wish Jon Oliver wasn't dark for two more weeks. I'm eager to hear his take on it.
     
    I don't mind being the ink spot on that sheet of paper if you think there's a problem and Obama is too scared to do so.
    I have no idea what this about Obama is.

    That which I posted before was media and hollywood white men, no women, no people of color. No people of average means. Hmm.

    Have you noticed that there's a demographic problem here. Here are the calls for Biden to step down being made by Congress critters, a list that PBS is keeping up to date. In the last hour one name was removed from that list. It had been 21 calling for him to step down.

    Looks like 4 women, and 16 men. There's a Japanese American man, a Latino man who might be Catholic, all eh rest of them 18 out of 20 are WASPs.

    Maybe there would be an additional Catholic or two in there, I didn't see any sign that a Jew is in that list. The fellow from Hawaii is a WASP, not Pacific Islander. No Native Americans.

    All but two are WASPs. White Anglo Saxon Protestant.

    However if you look at the Congress people who stand behind Biden, that list looks like America. Nicely proportioned demographically including WASPs.

    Called on Biden to step down (20)​

    Rep. Brittany Petterson (Colorado) — July 12
    Rep. Eric Sorenson (Illinois) — July 11
    Rep. Scott Peters* (California) — July 11
    Rep. Jim Himes (Connecticut) — July 11
    Rep. Ed Case* (Hawaii) — July 11
    Rep. Brad Schneider* (Illinois) — July 11
    Rep. Greg Stanton (Arizona) — July 11
    Rep. Hillary Scholten (Michigan) — July 11
    Sen. Peter Welch (Vermont) — July 10
    Rep. Earl Blumenauer* (Oregon) — July 10
    Rep. Pat Ryan (New York) — July 10
    Rep. Mikie Sherrill* (New Jersey) — July 9
    Rep. Mark Takano* (California) — July 7
    Rep. Adam Smith (Washington) — July 7
    Rep. Joe Morelle* (New York) — July 7
    Rep. Angie Craig (Minnesota) — July 6
    Rep. Mike Quigley (Illinois) — July 5
    Rep. Seth Moulton (Massachusetts) — July 4
    Rep. Raúl Grijalva (Arizona) — July 3
    Rep. Lloyd Doggett (Texas) — July 2
     
    That's not from the article I linked to. Do you have a link or can you tell me the source. I'd like to read more than just the headline. Headlines aren't very informative.

    Do you know if Jefferies asked Biden to step down? Did he say he wouldn't ever give Biden his endorsement? Did he say he wouldn't give it at this time?
    Jefferies is on the list of people who support Biden.
     
    To suggest it’s only white people that want him to drop out just denies reality.

    The two most recent polls show that over 40% of black voters think he should be replaced.
    Don't tell me, don't try that I've got a poll BS either, show me a prominent black person who has called for Biden to step down, someone who is also a Democrat.

    I'm talking about someone in Congress who has called for him to step down, not someone who has shown some concern according to the media.
     

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