Election Electoral College predictions (1 Viewer)

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Richard

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To get our minds off of the virus, debates and campaign theatrics for a moment, I thought it might be an interesting exercise to post our predictions of the final Electoral College margin. Of course, any prediction made would be a moment-in-time snapshot of what we think will happen given the current circumstances. Any number of factors could influence the vote over the final month of the campaign.

There are sites that can help you arrive at your prediction. Real Clear Politics and 538 have polling data that can help you come up with a number. I use RCP mostly because they have a good interactive national map that's easy to use and they don't include polls conducted by companies like SurveyMonkey. They do, however include partisan polling, like Trafalgar and Change Research.

My prediction started with looking at a best case scenario for a Trump reelection. I started by putting all of the states shown to lean in one direction in that camp. RCP shows states like Indiana and Missouri leaning Trump and Oregon and Virginia leaning Biden when those states and others like them are certainly going to end up in those columns. That leaves 11 "battleground" states (and two one-vote congressional districts) that theoretically could go either way and gives a picture of a 226-125 Biden lead before assigning a winner in those states. In looking at Trump's best case scenario, I gave him every state in which he is marginally ahead and those he is behind by less less than five points, as well as the two congressional districts. That would provide Biden with a slim 278-260 win. To come out with a better scenario for Trump, you would need to assign one or more of Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or New Hampshire to Trump and he is trailing in all of those states by more than five points.

However, I don't believe that Trump will achieve his best case numbers and Biden could win several more states, like Arizona, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas. I still think Trump will likely keep Texas, Iowa and Georgia, so my prediction as of today is 353-185 in favor of Biden.

If you choose to participate in this exercise, you are welcome to give different predictions over the course of the next month. I intend to post a final prediction on Nov. 2/3 and may even post a weekly prediction, depending on the level of participation.
 
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DaveXA

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This is wild.

1602733964381.png
That Georgia has Biden polling ahead of Trump is indeed wild. But, I suspect when the actual votes are counted, the story will be different. The fact that Biden is leading there at this point really isn't a good sign for Trump. Probably would be Biden in a landslide if the election was today. We'll see November 3rd.
 

Nebaghead

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Fundraising numbers for Biden are off the charts. 338 million for September. Hillary had 154 for September if you want a reference.
We will need to see Trumps numbers.
 

SaulGoodmanEsq

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That Georgia has Biden polling ahead of Trump is indeed wild. But, I suspect when the actual votes are counted, the story will be different. The fact that Biden is leading there at this point really isn't a good sign for Trump. Probably would be Biden in a landslide if the election was today. We'll see November 3rd.
I'm not so sure anything that happens in the next couple of weeks will matter. Aside from absentee ballots, a huge amount of people are voting early in-person. I don't think Biden will win Georgia because in a 'too close to call' scenario, the GOP has the state mechanisms working in its favor. However, as you point out, if Georgia is this close than it's a pretty big indication that Biden will win.
 

Saint by the Bay

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I still think it's a pipe dream, but the Democrats are making a genuine push for Texas. 1 million people have already voted in the state and the Dems are significantly outnumbering the Republicans. They have had well over 1 million people register to vote since 2018 with registered Dems greatly outnumbering Republicans. Remember, Cruz only won his Senate race by 200,000 votes.

One poll today had Trump with only a 2 point lead. IF that's true, the state is genuinely in play.
 

efil4

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That Georgia has Biden polling ahead of Trump is indeed wild. But, I suspect when the actual votes are counted, the story will be different. The fact that Biden is leading there at this point really isn't a good sign for Trump. Probably would be Biden in a landslide if the election was today. We'll see November 3rd.
As noted in an article i read, Republicans like to vote in person. so Nov 3rd they will make up some of the ground.

But all of these polls are alluding to what i saw coming- the majority of Americans are just simply "tired" of Trump and his bluster and antics. The novelty has worn off. They want to return to decency and respect for the office of the President.

His continued bluster, the continued empty promises on everything from healthcare to "october surprises", his lack of real leadership etc etc...its all culminating in turning off so many who supported him in 2016 because he was "different" ( business vs career politico and NOT a Clinton).

He knows the writing is on the wall. He now talking directly to his base. No one else. Putting pressure on the down ballot Republican candidates to support him or lose that base for themselves. Get in lock-step with him on chaos so that the only recourse he has come Nov 4 is to claim the election is wrought by fraud.

The problem with that is..he will lose the popular vote not by 80,000 or 100,000 overall. He will lose by close to 10,000,000. And he wont find enough votes to discount or missing R votes to make up the difference.

People have had enough. 2 Rs i know well are voting for Biden. Wont say it publicly, but in private, they no longer can support Trump and his actions.
 

efil4

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Fundraising numbers for Biden are off the charts. 338 million for September. Hillary had 154 for September if you want a reference.
We will need to see Trumps numbers.
You wont. They are pulling ads in some states because they are running out of $$$$
 

SaulGoodmanEsq

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I still think it's a pipe dream, but the Democrats are making a genuine push for Texas. 1 million people have already voted in the state and the Dems are significantly outnumbering the Republicans. They have had well over 1 million people register to vote since 2018 with registered Dems greatly outnumbering Republicans. Remember, Cruz only won his Senate race by 200,000 votes.

One poll today had Trump with only a 2 point lead. IF that's true, the state is genuinely in play.
Definitely good to lay the ground work. Texas was a pipe dream a few cycles ago but now, at the very least, the DNC is reaching out and engaging with voters there. The Cruz election speaks more to Ted Cruz being unpopular (a la Lindsey Graham). If Cornyn were running against Beto, it would have been a wider margin. Cornyn will probably win his election by a comfortable 5 points or so.
 

coldseat

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I still think it's a pipe dream, but the Democrats are making a genuine push for Texas. 1 million people have already voted in the state and the Dems are significantly outnumbering the Republicans. They have had well over 1 million people register to vote since 2018 with registered Dems greatly outnumbering Republicans. Remember, Cruz only won his Senate race by 200,000 votes.

One poll today had Trump with only a 2 point lead. IF that's true, the state is genuinely in play.
I think that Dems are also making a strong push in Texas with an eye towards gaining control of the state House. It's as outside shot, but you never know what will happen. They need something like 9 more seats to gain control. That would give them some leverage in redistricting coming up next year.
 

Saint by the Bay

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I think that Dems are also making a strong push in Texas with an eye towards gaining control of the state House. It's as outside shot, but you never know what will happen. They need something like 9 more seats to gain control. That would give them some leverage in redistricting coming up next year.
Yes, and this is the reason for pulling drop boxes from big counties and other voter suppression efforts. The Texas GOP is doing everything imaginable to reduce the vote in the large urban areas.
 

MT15

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You would think that practicing actual voter suppression would shame at least some of them. 🙄
 

efil4

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Today's release of polls. The consistency is staggering. For the first time in a while, I'm starting to get hopeful.

Screenshot 2020-10-15 12.08.52.png

welcome to the LIGHT side....glad to have you lolol

Trump will denounce every one, harking back to 2016.

Problem is....its not 2016.
 

SaulGoodmanEsq

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Investor's Business Daily (IBD/TIPP tracker) skewed slightly in favor of Trump last election. They aren't Rasmussen/Trafalgar territory but to see it still showing Biden +8 leads me to believe this is close to being the average for the popular vote.
 

wardorican

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Article about GA.
 

zztop

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For GA to turn blue I feel like it would require a monumental effort. There is so much put in place to suppress and discourage the vote of non republicans in that state.
 

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