Election Electoral College predictions (3 Viewers)

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Richard

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To get our minds off of the virus, debates and campaign theatrics for a moment, I thought it might be an interesting exercise to post our predictions of the final Electoral College margin. Of course, any prediction made would be a moment-in-time snapshot of what we think will happen given the current circumstances. Any number of factors could influence the vote over the final month of the campaign.

There are sites that can help you arrive at your prediction. Real Clear Politics and 538 have polling data that can help you come up with a number. I use RCP mostly because they have a good interactive national map that's easy to use and they don't include polls conducted by companies like SurveyMonkey. They do, however include partisan polling, like Trafalgar and Change Research.

My prediction started with looking at a best case scenario for a Trump reelection. I started by putting all of the states shown to lean in one direction in that camp. RCP shows states like Indiana and Missouri leaning Trump and Oregon and Virginia leaning Biden when those states and others like them are certainly going to end up in those columns. That leaves 11 "battleground" states (and two one-vote congressional districts) that theoretically could go either way and gives a picture of a 226-125 Biden lead before assigning a winner in those states. In looking at Trump's best case scenario, I gave him every state in which he is marginally ahead and those he is behind by less less than five points, as well as the two congressional districts. That would provide Biden with a slim 278-260 win. To come out with a better scenario for Trump, you would need to assign one or more of Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or New Hampshire to Trump and he is trailing in all of those states by more than five points.

However, I don't believe that Trump will achieve his best case numbers and Biden could win several more states, like Arizona, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas. I still think Trump will likely keep Texas, Iowa and Georgia, so my prediction as of today is 353-185 in favor of Biden.

If you choose to participate in this exercise, you are welcome to give different predictions over the course of the next month. I intend to post a final prediction on Nov. 2/3 and may even post a weekly prediction, depending on the level of participation.
 
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Brandon13

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If polling is overly friendly to Biden, wouldn't that mean Iowa is more likely to flip?
?

I know you're just at misunderstanding, but Republicans won both states last time and Biden has been performing slightly better (for longer) in Georgia than he has in Iowa, therefore I think it's more likely that Georgia flips from R to D.

*In last post "polling more friendly" only meant that Biden's numbers are better in Georgia than they are in Iowa.
 

zztop

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I think having had the Governor debacle has mobilized the democratic vote in Georgia over Iowa. Stacy Abrams has been working in registering and getting out the vote for two years there, and elsewhere too for that matter.
I agree with you on this, she has put in work. I still think it would be a huge uphill battle, with everything republicans have in place to "discourage" it to move blue. But if it happens, that would be incredibly impressive
 

DaveXA

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?

I know you're just at misunderstanding, but Republicans won both states last time and Biden has been performing slightly better (for longer) in Georgia than he has in Iowa, therefore I think it's more likely that Georgia flips from R to D.

*In last post "polling more friendly" only meant that Biden's numbers are better in Georgia than they are in Iowa.
Oh, gotcha. That makes sense now. I was thinking that the polling methodology was overly friendly to Biden, not necessarily the actual numbers leaning more favorably to him. Thanks for clarifying.
 

Booker

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Not counting any chickens in this thing. The increase in Republican registration in swing states could suggest a lot of first time voters coming out for Trump that might not be showing up in polling.


Florida, since the state’s March primary, added 195,652 Republicans and 98,362 Democrats.

Pennsylvania, since June, Republicans plus 135,619, Democrats up 57,985.

North Carolina, since March, Republicans up 83,785 to Democrats 38,137.

In Arizona, the exception, “Democrats out-registered Republicans 31,139 to 29,667” in recent months.
 

Brandon13

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Not counting any chickens in this thing. The increase in Republican registration in swing states could suggest a lot of first time voters coming out for Trump that might not be showing up in polling.

Yep, was getting at that in a post I put up yesterday.. which means that even though the pollsters have adjusted their methodology to represent a higher number of white non-college educated voters, it's conceivable that they're still under counting that portion of the electorate.
 

efil4

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Not counting any chickens in this thing. The increase in Republican registration in swing states could suggest a lot of first time voters coming out for Trump that might not be showing up in polling.

nor am i. Im fully expecting a historic number of votes to be cast from now to Nov 3rd.

Biden/Harris need to keep THIS message front and center. Do not get apathetic. VOTE!
 

DaveXA

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Not counting any chickens in this thing. The increase in Republican registration in swing states could suggest a lot of first time voters coming out for Trump that might not be showing up in polling.

This was my son last election. Newly registered and voted Trump. No idea where that came from, heh. This time it's my daughter. She's gonna be different this time around, lol.
 

B4YOU

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Not counting any chickens in this thing. The increase in Republican registration in swing states could suggest a lot of first time voters coming out for Trump that might not be showing up in polling.

People are looking at the wrong polls and not considering enough factors. Trump is doing better in top battleground states today than in 2016.

6C5368AA-E4A5-46AF-8736-D3E37DE6B6E1.jpeg


I think Biden loses any state he isn’t +5 on day of election. This is what that map would look like today:

387F6F5D-0388-4BAD-802B-F68A4453E6DE.jpeg
 

Saint by the Bay

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People are looking at the wrong polls and not considering enough factors. Trump is doing better in top battleground states today than in 2016.

6C5368AA-E4A5-46AF-8736-D3E37DE6B6E1.jpeg


I think Biden loses any state he isn’t +5 on day of election. This is what that map would look like today:

387F6F5D-0388-4BAD-802B-F68A4453E6DE.jpeg
I agree with you overall, but I think the number is more like +3 on the day of the election. If he's below that I think it's a Trump state.
 

CoolBrees

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But this again is RCP sleight of hand. They are showing that Biden’s lead in battleground may be nominally smaller but what they aren’t showing you is Hillary was at 45% vs Biden who is at 49%. That is a huge difference. So while he may be up a slightly lower percent, he is at the finish line (50%).

Without the large amount of undecideds to swing Trump’s way he doesn’t have the votes to close the gap.

And as I stated yesterday, the three states that matter are well outside the MoE.

And finally they count Trafalger who is a very right leaning pollster and has historically under sampled Dems.
 

cuddlemonkey

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But this again is RCP sleight of hand. They are showing that Biden’s lead in battleground may be nominally smaller but what they aren’t showing you is Hillary was at 45% vs Biden who is at 49%. That is a huge difference. So while he may be up a slightly lower percent, he is at the finish line (50%).

Without the large amount of undecideds to swing Trump’s way he doesn’t have the votes to close the gap.

And as I stated yesterday, the three states that matter are well outside the MoE.

And finally they count Trafalger who is a very right leaning pollster and has historically under sampled Dems.
And despite all of this, the message needs to be to get out and vote. The polls were wrong last time, so don't get complacent. For the sake of this country we call home, please please please vote.
 

CoolBrees

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I am in the process of filling my ballot out now.

Though my vote is irrelevant. Biden is winning Oregon and our houses will be super majority blue again.

Not that I am complaining
 

Saint by the Bay

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So, here's another way to look at it. Does anyone think Trump is going to outperform 2016 anywhere? I don't. I think at best he can match his 2016 performance. So I think it's a good comparison to look at where Biden is polling against where Trump finished.

Screenshot 2020-10-16 12.44.33.png


If you look, in the "Blue Wall" states Biden has a lead over Trump in his polling vs. Trump's 2016 results while Trump holds the lead in NC, Florida, and Ohio. Also, Biden is outperforming Hillary in very believable ways, knowing what we know. If Biden just wins those 4 states he's at 272.

Now, if you think Trump will outperform his 2016 numbers Joe may be in trouble. Even if there is a polling error the same size as 2016 (unlikely), Biden is still in good shape.
 

SaulGoodmanEsq

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I still see Ohio staying Republican and Florida... well... it's controlled by DeSantis and company. Probably end up not being called for months. Iowa is more likely to flip than Ohio. Jodi Ernst got destroyed in her debate the other night.
 

Saint by the Bay

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The latest polls are tightening significantly. It seems the effect of Trump's really bad awful week are wearing off. Biden needs another performance in the debate this week like Trump had in the last one. However, I'm actually not sure that will work this time because in typical Trump fashion people are getting numb to his lunacy.
 

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