Election Electoral College predictions (1 Viewer)

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Richard

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To get our minds off of the virus, debates and campaign theatrics for a moment, I thought it might be an interesting exercise to post our predictions of the final Electoral College margin. Of course, any prediction made would be a moment-in-time snapshot of what we think will happen given the current circumstances. Any number of factors could influence the vote over the final month of the campaign.

There are sites that can help you arrive at your prediction. Real Clear Politics and 538 have polling data that can help you come up with a number. I use RCP mostly because they have a good interactive national map that's easy to use and they don't include polls conducted by companies like SurveyMonkey. They do, however include partisan polling, like Trafalgar and Change Research.

My prediction started with looking at a best case scenario for a Trump reelection. I started by putting all of the states shown to lean in one direction in that camp. RCP shows states like Indiana and Missouri leaning Trump and Oregon and Virginia leaning Biden when those states and others like them are certainly going to end up in those columns. That leaves 11 "battleground" states (and two one-vote congressional districts) that theoretically could go either way and gives a picture of a 226-125 Biden lead before assigning a winner in those states. In looking at Trump's best case scenario, I gave him every state in which he is marginally ahead and those he is behind by less less than five points, as well as the two congressional districts. That would provide Biden with a slim 278-260 win. To come out with a better scenario for Trump, you would need to assign one or more of Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or New Hampshire to Trump and he is trailing in all of those states by more than five points.

However, I don't believe that Trump will achieve his best case numbers and Biden could win several more states, like Arizona, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas. I still think Trump will likely keep Texas, Iowa and Georgia, so my prediction as of today is 353-185 in favor of Biden.

If you choose to participate in this exercise, you are welcome to give different predictions over the course of the next month. I intend to post a final prediction on Nov. 2/3 and may even post a weekly prediction, depending on the level of participation.
 
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B4YOU

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Michigan early voting totals may favor Rs. Projected totals are 41 R, 39 D and 20 Other.

Wisconsin is similarly close.

 

insidejob

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Fundraising numbers for Biden are off the charts. 338 million for September. Hillary had 154 for September if you want a reference.
We will need to see Trumps numbers.
Just saw that he still has $200M on hand even after the spending blitz on TV ads and all the travel and campaign events he's done since those numbers were reported. They said it's unheard of for someone to have that much cash available at this point in the race.
 

insidejob

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Investor's Business Daily (IBD/TIPP tracker) skewed slightly in favor of Trump last election. They aren't Rasmussen/Trafalgar territory but to see it still showing Biden +8 leads me to believe this is close to being the average for the popular vote.
We all know how much that actually matters on election night though. The media, especially the MSNBC types of the country, are finally starting to drill home that the actual lead is much closer to an actual 4% lead and that might not even cut it in the EC.
 

Saint by the Bay

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I just heard something really shocking on Morning Joe. They said 15-20% of early voters didn’t vote in 2016. That’s a pretty staggering number of new voters and can really skew the polls. My assumption is the majority of these are Dems (that’s their assumption too).

If these numbers hold and it is even 60% Democrats, we are going to see some surprising results on election night.
 

efil4

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Michigan early voting totals may favor Rs. Projected totals are 41 R, 39 D and 20 Other.

Wisconsin is similarly close.

That's not voting totals... It's total ballots requested.
 

efil4

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Michigan early voting totals may favor Rs. Projected totals are 41 R, 39 D and 20 Other.

Wisconsin is similarly close.

Thats a really neat dashboard.

Interesting that almost 3mm people requested mail in ballots. 1.3mm already returned.

in 2016, 4.3mm or so voted. Trump won by like 40,000 votes. ( .01 % ) Not sure how many registered voters Michigan has, but if 2-2.5mm go to polls, and the mail in get 90% return rate, that would be an increase in total votes cast of 30-40%!!!!!!

Thats what i have spoken about before...this Administration has awakened the electorate. Mobilized those who would probably abstain from voting.

If that holds true, even in the 10-20% range for all 50 states, this will be a historic election ( numbers wise )
 

efil4

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Exactly, and which way would you guess most of the 20% independent vote is leaning?
Keep in mind 20% of 2.93 mm - so thats almost 500,000 independent voters. If ( i think SBTB said 60% vote Biden ) 60% lean Biden, he will blow thru Clintons totals in 2016.
 

Saint by the Bay

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Thats a really neat dashboard.

Interesting that almost 3mm people requested mail in ballots. 1.3mm already returned.

in 2016, 4.3mm or so voted. Trump won by like 40,000 votes. ( .01 % ) Not sure how many registered voters Michigan has, but if 2-2.5mm go to polls, and the mail in get 90% return rate, that would be an increase in total votes cast of 30-40%!!!!!!

Thats what i have spoken about before...this Administration has awakened the electorate. Mobilized those who would probably abstain from voting.

If that holds true, even in the 10-20% range for all 50 states, this will be a historic election ( numbers wise )
The usual number of new voters in a Presidential election is 11%. That is on pace to be completely shattered this year, maybe close to doubled.
 

CoolBrees

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Not only high voter turnout. Historical. As in the highest since 1908. 150 million estimated.

 

JimEverett

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I just heard something really shocking on Morning Joe. They said 15-20% of early voters didn’t vote in 2016. That’s a pretty staggering number of new voters and can really skew the polls. My assumption is the majority of these are Dems (that’s their assumption too).

If these numbers hold and it is even 60% Democrats, we are going to see some surprising results on election night.
The feeling I get is that it is going to be a blowout across the board. Democrats gain seats in the House, take the Senate by 4 or 6, and Biden wins in a 2008-level rout.
People are just sick of Trump. He still has a lot of enthusiastic support, particularly in rural areas - but I cannot believe some of the people I know that are in their 40s and 50s who live in suburbs and probably never voted for a Democrat in their life who are voting Biden (its Tennessee, so I don't think they are going to vote blue down-ballot, but don't really ask).

I still doubt Georgia is flipped, but I wouldn't be all that surprised if it was.
 

Brandon13

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Not only high voter turnout. Historical. As in the highest since 1908. 150 million estimated.

That article references 17 million votes cast already... It's not even old article and we're actually almost to 22 million ballots cast.. the totals are going to be staggering.
 

JimEverett

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So here is my updated map. I am curious what some of you think: who is more likely to switch: Iowa or Georgia?

 

MT15

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I think they both have about the same chance. I don’t think Ernst will win, and I don’t think Loeffler (sp?) will win either, so they have similar situations there.

If I had to pick one, maybe Georgia?
 

MT15

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I think having had the Governor debacle has mobilized the democratic vote in Georgia over Iowa. Stacy Abrams has been working in registering and getting out the vote for two years there, and elsewhere too for that matter.
 

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