Election Electoral College predictions (2 Viewers)

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Richard

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To get our minds off of the virus, debates and campaign theatrics for a moment, I thought it might be an interesting exercise to post our predictions of the final Electoral College margin. Of course, any prediction made would be a moment-in-time snapshot of what we think will happen given the current circumstances. Any number of factors could influence the vote over the final month of the campaign.

There are sites that can help you arrive at your prediction. Real Clear Politics and 538 have polling data that can help you come up with a number. I use RCP mostly because they have a good interactive national map that's easy to use and they don't include polls conducted by companies like SurveyMonkey. They do, however include partisan polling, like Trafalgar and Change Research.

My prediction started with looking at a best case scenario for a Trump reelection. I started by putting all of the states shown to lean in one direction in that camp. RCP shows states like Indiana and Missouri leaning Trump and Oregon and Virginia leaning Biden when those states and others like them are certainly going to end up in those columns. That leaves 11 "battleground" states (and two one-vote congressional districts) that theoretically could go either way and gives a picture of a 226-125 Biden lead before assigning a winner in those states. In looking at Trump's best case scenario, I gave him every state in which he is marginally ahead and those he is behind by less less than five points, as well as the two congressional districts. That would provide Biden with a slim 278-260 win. To come out with a better scenario for Trump, you would need to assign one or more of Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or New Hampshire to Trump and he is trailing in all of those states by more than five points.

However, I don't believe that Trump will achieve his best case numbers and Biden could win several more states, like Arizona, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas. I still think Trump will likely keep Texas, Iowa and Georgia, so my prediction as of today is 353-185 in favor of Biden.

If you choose to participate in this exercise, you are welcome to give different predictions over the course of the next month. I intend to post a final prediction on Nov. 2/3 and may even post a weekly prediction, depending on the level of participation.
 
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Booker

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Since the Saints are looking like well not good ....

Politico has put Biden “Over the line!” To quote Walter Sobchak

To quote the Stifmeister, “You don’t score, until you score.” Not counting any chickens.
 

wardorican

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Since the Saints are looking like well not good ....

Politico has put Biden “Over the line!” To quote Walter Sobchak

Don't give up too soon.. on both counts. ha.
 

CoolBrees

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I don’t think complacency will be an issue - for either side. People are terrified of their vote not counting.

I think there will be record turnout from the youth. I see women turning out the same way.

the Saints on the other hand better get their shirt together.
 

Saint by the Bay

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Since this has turned into a de facto election thread I thought I would put this here. Not the war but winning the early battle

Completely anecdotal but just looking at the demographic makeup of the early voter lines here in Texas, Dems are dominating early voting here as well.
 

Saint by the Bay

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This is the updated info from the states that are reporting by party (Great site with the early voting information)

About 14 and a half million ballots have been cast so far, which is already about 10.5% of total ballots submitted in 2016.
I'm always skeptical of some of the No Party Affiliation and Independent numbers. I think we have a significant size group of people that always vote Republican, but don't like being associated with a lot of the racist/sexist/xenophobic/anti-science/conspiracy looney fringe of the Republican party. So I think a not-insignificant portion of that "Not Affiliated" is Transformers, Republicans in Disguise.

 

B4YOU

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I'm always skeptical of some of the No Party Affiliation and Independent numbers. I think we have a significant size group of people that always vote Republican, but don't like being associated with a lot of the racist/sexist/xenophobic/anti-science/conspiracy looney fringe of the Republican party. So I think a not-insignificant portion of that "Not Affiliated" is Transformers, Republicans in Disguise.

Maybe. These tend to be first-time, low-info, disinterested, or disaffected voters. Even if they split 65/35 R, the Ds would still have a lead in the swing states I looked at.

An overwhelming majority of independents (81%) continue to “lean” toward either the Republican Party or the Democratic Party. Among the public overall, 17% are Democratic-leaning independents, while 13% lean toward the Republican Party. Just 7% of Americans decline to lean toward a party, a share that has changed little in recent years.

 

efil4

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I'm always skeptical of some of the No Party Affiliation and Independent numbers. I think we have a significant size group of people that always vote Republican, but don't like being associated with a lot of the racist/sexist/xenophobic/anti-science/conspiracy looney fringe of the Republican party. So I think a not-insignificant portion of that "Not Affiliated" is Transformers, Republicans in Disguise.

im a registered Independent. I vote both D and R, depending on candidate and platform. With that said, i suspect a lot of Independents want the ability to vote however they decide. In this election, its pretty clear which way the pendulum has swung.

I dont subscribe to Independents casting a vote for Trump simply because underneath, they are RINOS.
 

CoolBrees

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Near record registrations in Ohio. Only higher was in 08. Overwhelming Democrat registrations. This is becoming a trend...


 

zztop

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Near record registrations in Ohio. Only higher was in 08. Overwhelming Democrat registrations. This is becoming a trend...
If only the court didn't side with the GOP and allow only one ballot drop-off box per county :(
I hear in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania are trying REALLY hard to limit and restrict voting options
Probably in Georgia too, since they were practicing "legal" voter supression during their last gubernatorial election
 

MT15

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They did, I just checked. Their snake graph is too big for me to get a screenshot on my iPad, but yes i did see that.
 

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