Election Night (+4) in America - Result: Biden Elected President (20 Viewers)

[GrandAdmiral]

I'll probably be flipping between CNN, NBC, and probably PBS if they have coverage.

What station you got?

 

[jdn9201]

You are probably 100% right with this. But the problem with this country isn't who is running the Democratic part, where the money is going or what the message is. I don't think any of that really mattered in the grand scheme of things.

The problem is with the people of America. When people can look at what this president and administration have done and still vote for that is such large numbers, it's not just about a message. It's the people. The psycology of the Trump voter isn't penetrated by facts, message or issues.

Im not going to totally disagree with you, but as hard as it is to do, insulting Trump voters is part of the problem. I used to be one and not every Trump voter is a racist or uneducated. That’s why they lie to pollsters. I think the key is finding the reasons why people still vote for him and figure out how to appeal to those reasons while building a wider and inclusive campaign that fixes some of the problems Trump has caused.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

You are probably 100% right with this. But the problem with this country isn't who is running the Democratic part, where the money is going or what the message is. I don't think any of that really mattered in the grand scheme of things.

The problem is with the people of America. When people can look at what this president and administration have done and still vote for that is such large numbers, it's not just about a message. It's the people. The psycology of the Trump voter isn't penetrated by facts, message or issues.

I agree for the most part but, and similar to what I said in the post above, the DNC needs to consider changing where it stands socially and economically.

 

[RobF]

Checking in from over here, and I have questions. Like... what? And... why? Also, how, when, and who. But more specifically:

Biden has a record number of votes for any presidential candidate already. Related, Trump also has a record number of votes. That surprises me, because I can easily see Biden gaining over Clinton, as he doesn't carry the same baggage, and Trump has now fully established that, no, he was never going to suddenly pivot to being Presidential. But Trump was on the ballot last time, and he is, if anything, more Trumpy. How are there that many people who didn't vote for him last time over Clinton, but now, after four years of Trump, when he's up against the less contentious Biden, think, "Yes, now I'll vote for him."?

So I'm curious about where the increases are coming from; is it just an across the board reflection of the election taking a higher profile (similar to 2004 compared to 2000 when GW Bush increased his vote from 50m to 62m and Kerry had 59m votes to Gore's 51m?), or do particular states account for it, perhaps in part because of the change in voting methods due to the pandemic (e.g. an increase in states automatically sending out ballots)? I'd guess it'd be possible to estimate the latter part based on the change in turnout in states which switched to doing that versus the change in states which didn't.

Do we have any idea yet how significant the delays in the USPS were? E.g. what proportion of ballots didn't make it in time, and how does this compare to what would be expected?

And an observation, I'm already seeing the classic difference showing up; when Republicans look on track for a narrow victory, they declare it a resounding success and act like they have the biggest mandate in history for the next few years, when Democrats look on track for a narrow victory, they declare it a disaster and immediately start infighting and demanding heads. I'm surprised and disheartened by the results, but given the state of the US electoral system, the gerrymandering, voter suppression, state of the media, and a disintegrating and divisive two party system, perhaps expectations need to be adjusted.

 

[DaveXA]

You are probably 100% right with this. But the problem with this country isn't who is running the Democratic part, where the money is going or what the message is. I don't think any of that really mattered in the grand scheme of things.

The problem is with the people of America. When people can look at what this president and administration have done and still vote for that is such large numbers, it's not just about a message. It's the people. The psycology of the Trump voter isn't penetrated by facts, message or issues.

Then there has to be a message brings them out of that. I don't think that will happen though. The parties don't seem interested in a meeting of the minds, so I don't expect much to change when neither thinks they need to. Both sides (yeah, I know, I know) need to compromise for the sake of the country, but neither are really motivated to do so because they're content with where they are. I'm not sure the reckoning for either party has happened yet. It's just another march to the next election cycle. At least it feels that way to me. This election wasn't much of a mandate.

I don't know what the answers are though.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Biden has a record number of votes for any presidential candidate already. Related, Trump also has a record number of votes. That surprises me, because I can easily see Biden gaining over Clinton, as he doesn't carry the same baggage, and Trump has now fully established that, no, he was never going to suddenly pivot to being Presidential. But Trump was on the ballot last time, and he is, if anything, more Trumpy. How are there that many people who didn't vote for him last time over Clinton, but now, after four years of Trump, when he's up against the less contentious Biden, think, "Yes, now I'll vote for him."?

This is the elephant in the room that many in the DNC don't want to admit. Trump gained voters. The DNC is fundamentally misconstruing where America is as a nation. I don't like where it is but I cannot deny what's staring me in the face.

 

[el caliente]

It’s great that everyone is so into this Presidential election, but you know what would be cooler? If everyone was just as into local elections (you know, the ones that impact your life on a daily basis).

 

[Mr. Blue Sky]

It’s great that everyone is so into this Presidential election, but you know what would be cooler? If everyone was just as into local elections (you know, the ones that impact your life on a daily basis).

I dont know brah, Trump’s dismantling of the pandemic response team he inherited from Barry, along with Trump’s denial that we are even in a crisis has affected my daily life pretty profoundly, as well as anyone reading this.

 

[DaveXA]

Then there has to be a message brings them out of that. I don't think that will happen though. The parties don't seem interested in a meeting of the minds, so I don't expect much to change when neither thinks they need to. Both sides (yeah, I know, I know) need to compromise for the sake of the country, but neither are really motivated to do so because they're content with where they are. I'm not sure the reckoning for either party has happened yet. It's just another march to the next election cycle. At least it feels that way to me. This election wasn't much of a mandate.

I don't know what the answers are though.

And just to add onto this. I'm essentially a former Republican who isn't sold on the Democratic party. I could be potentially convinced if I felt there was room in the party for social progressives and fiscal conservatives. The same applies to the Republican party. Until they provide a platform that more closely aligns with what I believe in, I'm gonna continue to be an independent.

 

[JRad]

A map we can all appreciate.

 

[efil4]

Republicans denounced Obama as a socialist. Who had the problem again?

and they doubled down on that.

the gal in my office who claims Wisconsin will recount because more votes than people....said Biden was a socialist pig.

VERBATIM.

The RNC has their talons so deep into the flesh, i dont know how you remove them.

 

[CoolBrees]

The left is the living embodiment of Voltaire’s letting perfect be the enemy of the good.
We constantly try to fit everything at the table all at once and if the action wasn’t perfect; we form a committee to discover the reasons to nominate a second panel to be formed to review the outcomes and recommend a formal review for possible action

any win is seen as a negative unless it is perfect.

What we have learned is that there are a bunch of racist ghouls in this country. More than I had hoped. But at least not enough to re elect their racist ghoul of a leader.

now all I can hope is that we don’t kowtow and try to reach across the aisle. We need to go after him and all of his sycophants. It’s retribution time!

 

[DaveXA]

I dont know brah, Trump’s dismantling of the pandemic response team he inherited from Barry, along with Trump’s denial that we are even in a crisis has affected my daily life pretty profoundly, as well as anyone reading this.

Sure, but local politics matter. See mayor of NO as an example.

 

[JRad]

and they doubled down on that.

the gal in my office who claims Wisconsin will recount because more votes than people....said Biden was a socialist pig.

VERBATIM.

The RNC has their talons so deep into the flesh, i dont know how you remove them.

They're big on the buzzwords with no content

RADICAL!
Socialist!

But far too often the folks who complain about socialism can't actually tell you what it is, just they were told it's bad. I overheard a neighbor talking about China's "socialism" in the same breathe as Democratic Socialism. Like come on.

 

[Lapaz]

Nice Remaining vote link. Free to view but you do have to log in but can use your Google account. Probably get NY Times solicitation the rest of your life though.

Live: Where Presidential Votes Remain to Be Counted (Published 2020)

See the outstanding estimated vote to be counted in the 2020 presidential election.

www.nytimes.com

Biden will hold Arizona and Michigan, so for the 3 states in which Biden is trailing (Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia), Biden needs the following percent of uncounted votes, which I think are all mail-in votes, to win each:

Pennsylvania: 66.1% of remaining 1.4M votes. So far he's getting over 78% of the mail-in votes.
North Carolina: 63.3% of remaining 290k votes. Biden has gotten only 51.7% of the mail-in votes in NC. The uncounted are spread out across the state, but a lot of urban votes remain uncounted.
Georgia: 61.2% of remaining 360k votes. Biden has only gotten 51.4% of the mail-in votes in GA, but mostly urban areas remain uncounted.

I used the following equation: [(Total uncounted votes - Biden's shortfall)/2 + 1 + Biden's shortfall]/2

Based on the above, Biden should win Pennsylvania, but NC and Georgia are much tougher calls. In Georgia, the majority of the uncounted mail-in votes are from urban areas. NC's uncounted are more spread out, so the final uncounted will remain closer to 51.7%, so the deficit will be tougher to make up. In Georgia, Biden should get over 70% of the remaining votes, so I think he can exceed the 61.2% that he needs of the remaining votes. I predict Biden gets Penn by a comfortable margin, eeks out Georgia and barely loses NC.

 

[EmBeeFiveOhFour]

CNN reporting that from sources inside the Trump camp, "President Trump is the one driving this 'fight to the finish' posture, the president feels like the election is being stolen from him."

Who could have predicted this reaction???? (Aside from every single person who posted in the predictions thread yesterday, lol)

 

[Mr. Blue Sky]

Sure, but local politics matter. See mayor of NO as an example.

No doubt, but the poster i was replying to seemed to be implying that local elections matter more than on the national level.. maybe i misinterpreted.. but if that was his intent , then i disagree 100%.

 

[BayouSAINTJoe]

and they doubled down on that.

the gal in my office who claims Wisconsin will recount because more votes than people....said Biden was a socialist pig.

VERBATIM.

The RNC has their talons so deep into the flesh, i dont know how you remove them.

Re-education camps??? I think we'd be covered from international law because we're not singling out a single ethnic group. I'm just kidding...kinda.

But seriously, no clue how to change the mindset of some of these people, their stance is only going to grow more rigid over time...trumpism and the GOP strategy to other-ize democrats will leave a stain on society for years to come.

 

[Eeyore]

I think that we need ranked choice voting.