2024 GOP Presidential Race (15 Viewers)

[SteveSBrickNJ]

Many of Trump's endorsed candidates did not do well on Nov. 8th.
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Gov. Ron DeSantis DID do well.
He won convincingly.
Yet in this OP's opinion, Donald Trump is an egomaniac who is seemingly incapable of putting "Party over Self"
Trump has ZERO chance of being elected our next president.
In my opinion, if Trump would just shut up and go away (fat chance of that)...but "if" Trump did that, Gov. Ron DeSantis would have a CHANCE to be a formidable candidate for President in 2024.
Here is an interesting article on this topic...

Donald Trump warns Ron DeSantis against 2024 presidential bid as Republican rising star wins big

www.scotsman.com

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What do any of you think re. Trump vs DeSantis?

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

I don’t think his impact would be that strong. Presuming he runs and loses the primary or decides not to run after all, when it comes time to vote for president, I don’t see 20 to 30 percent of likely GOP voters staying home because Trump, even if he’s all spiteful and tells them to.

If he gets super spiteful and runs as an independent, then sure that probably kills the GOP in the general election. But I doubt that happens. That threat is certainly no reason to defer to Trump - that’s beyond spineless. I just don’t think trump has that sway anymore.

Fair enough. Although if the 2024 general election is as close as the prior two then even a marginal amount of Trump voters staying home might have an impact.

 

[bdb13]

I mean when has Trump ever had anything of substance that somehow manages to stick….I just don’t think the 20-30% crazies are going away….I sure hope Trump runs as an Indy, then Repubs would get exactly what they deserve….but as someone has already said, we will see soon…..

DeSantis' MAGA bona fides have never been in question. He is one of them and that's how almost all of them view him imo. He runs a more polished but recognizable version of Trump's MAGA playbook and I'm also pretty sure to this point he's never even said a negative word regarding Trump (and that's a big key to it imo, that DeSantis has never broken with him before).

And off of that, he just won a freaking landslide election for Governor of FL 60%-40%. vs the Democrat. He won by such a wide margin because he was able to gain support from MAGA, traditional conservatives, and independents.. and did so while strengthening his MAGA bona fides in the process imo.

That's what I mean when I'm saying Trump doesn't really have anything to throw and land with because DeSantis has to this point just about perfectly positioned himself for the attacks to fall on deaf ears.

 

[bdb13]

I will concede there's a chance that the debates could change things drastically if Trump just relentlessly forks with him and we watch DeSantis meltdown in real time.. but hard to account for that at this point.

 

[superchuck500]

Fair enough. Although if the 2024 general election is as close as the prior two then even a marginal amount of Trump voters staying home might have an impact.

Agreed it might. But what do we make of that? I don't think that should compel DeSantis not to run.

I think it's just reality.

 

[SystemShock]

I will concede there's a chance that the debates could change things drastically if Trump just relentlessly forks with him and we watch DeSantis meltdown in real time.. but hard to account for that at this point.

I don't think DeSantis will melt down in a debate. I am also inclined to think that DeSantis may just go with a more polished version of the route Rubio almost went in 2015, and for whatever reason he backtracked: small hands, draft dodger, bad at business...

 

[bdb13]

Amid new pushback to former President Trump in the wake of Tuesday’s midterm elections, New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman tweeted on Friday that he is “willing to burn it all down” if he does not get his way.

“Trump has made clear he’s willing to burn it all down if he doesn’t get what he wants, which is maintaining his grip on the product line he’s been developing for six years: the Republican Party,” she said

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/...n-it-all-down-if-he-doesnt-get-what-he-wants/

 

[MT15]

I don’t think Trump gives up so easily and have you all forgotten how much the mainstream Rs badmouthed him in 2015-2016? His voters don’t give a crap about the R party for the most part. He destroyed every mainstream R who was running that year, so badly they all ended up falling right in line behind all his crazy. Let’s see what happens, but I am skeptical they (Rs) will walk away at this point.

I saw where Stephanik (sp?) fell in line, as well as others in the R party already.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/...n-it-all-down-if-he-doesnt-get-what-he-wants/

 

[superchuck500]

I don’t think Trump gives up so easily and have you all forgotten how much the mainstream Rs badmouthed him in 2015-2016? His voters don’t give a crap about the R party for the most part. He destroyed every mainstream R who was running that year, so badly they all ended up falling right in line behind all his crazy. Let’s see what happens, but I am skeptical they (Rs) will walk away at this point.

I saw where Stephanik (sp?) fell in line, as well as others in the R party already.

It's true - but I think there's a huge difference between 2023 and 2015 as far as who the public knows Trump to be and what Trump is offering.

In 2015, Trump was perceived to be a businessman who was on a platform of opposing the quasi-monarchy that had developed going from one Bush/Clinton to another . . . and this one in particularly, Hillary, had a lot of entrenched negativity around her (unfair or not). He offered to drain the swamp by being a strong man, with his own wealth and power, that would insist on sensible, transparent way of conducting business in Washington, rejecting the power bases that come from incumbency and special interests in Congress. Then, on top of that, he brought a rhetorical style that appealed to the American right that was slipping further into populism where cheap slogans and superficial nationalism prevail over meaningful policy - a movement that really began with the Tea Party. His ability to belittle opposition with school-yard bully tactics worked with all of this rather than against it.

In 2023, Trump now comes with a record as president that failed, in many respects, to deliver on his shiny promises in 2015, and one that saw his narcissistic personality disorder only grow more and more acute - to the point where it swallowed so much of the rest of his agenda. He was impeached twice. He fomented an insurrection and blatantly challenged the Constitution of the United States. He is under multiple criminal investigations that appear to have real legs. He is backed into a corner with little else to offer but more of the same . . . Donald effing Trump and all of the blowhard, ego-maniacal bullshirt that goes with him. The cult still love him but that's not enough, and it's not the same size as it used to be.

The GOP have to know that there is a chunk of the American middle, whether moderate Republicans or independents that know that Donald Trump is nothing but toxic - and they will not vote for him. Full stop. IMO at least.

 

[bdb13]

I don’t think Trump gives up so easily and have you all forgotten how much the mainstream Rs badmouthed him in 2015-2016? His voters don’t give a crap about the R party for the most part. He destroyed every mainstream R who was running that year, so badly they all ended up falling right in line behind all his crazy. Let’s see what happens, but I am skeptical they (Rs) will walk away at this point.

I saw where Stephanik (sp?) fell in line, as well as others in the R party already.

There are definitely going to be ones in the party who are loyal to him/afraid of him and will continue to support him. Gaetz did the same thing yesterday or today, I believe.

I just think in the same sort of way that Trump didn't have success in using his same playbook versus Biden that he won with versus Hillary.. dynamics change and who you're up against changes I just think the atmosphere is ripe for DeSantis to give him all sorts of problems.

 

[Saintman2884]

It would be different if DeSantis succeeded Trump (which is why I think he waits until 2028) but I just can't see him drawing ALL of Trump's supporters while Trump is alive and actively denouncing him.

Then the Republican Party loses the 2024 Presidential race to a good, but kind of mediocre, underperforming Biden. And maybe even more House and Senate races. I know there are a quite a few sane, intelligent Republican strategists out there smarter then most of us who will see this scenario develop out large as a method in their minds and maybe some already have begun to see this development, you're kind of setting yourself up to failure.

 

[SFIDC3]

I don’t think Trump gives up so easily and have you all forgotten how much the mainstream Rs badmouthed him in 2015-2016? His voters don’t give a crap about the R party for the most part. He destroyed every mainstream R who was running that year, so badly they all ended up falling right in line behind all his crazy. Let’s see what happens, but I am skeptical they (Rs) will walk away at this point.

I saw where Stephanik (sp?) fell in line, as well as others in the R party already.

I agree and I also would say its what I hope will happen….that doesn’t make it so but I think the one thing the opposite POV fails to take into account is just how many MAGA crazies out there think Trump is the 2nd coming (or something equally looney)….those folks are not going away and they won’t vote for DeSantis if they perceive him as the enemy…..

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

Then there is this....

Senate GOP fears another Trump disaster in Georgia runoff

Senate Republicans are worried that former President Trump may derail their chances of winning the runoff election in Georgia next month if he announces his 2024 presidential campaign in the next few weeks, and again thrusts his unsubstantiated claims of widespread election fraud into the...

www.yahoo.com

 

[Taurus]

If you think Trump will ever, ever just give up and go away, you've got another think coming. Running a perpetual election campaign is the most fantastic grift ever in the history of grifting. He's not giving up those millions until they're pried out of his teeny, cold hands. It's literally free money.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Then the Republican Party loses the 2024 Presidential race to a good, but kind of mediocre, underperforming Biden. And maybe even more House and Senate races. I know there are a quite a few sane, intelligent Republican strategists out there smarter then most of us who will see this scenario develop out large as a method in their minds and maybe some already have begun to see this development, you're kind of setting yourself up to failure.

Unfortunately the Senate map looks really bad for Democrats in 2024.

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

Unfortunately the Senate map looks really bad for Democrats in 2024.

"Unfortunately" is in the eye of the beholder
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Thanks for answering my question on the other thread. (Midterm Election)

 

[Saintman2884]

"Unfortunately" is in the eye of the beholder

Yeah, exactly. Even with the political ramifications and seismic after-effects of Roe decision being overturned and abortion rights reverting back to the states, most mainstream political analysts, commentators and strategists on left-leaning cable networks like MSNBC were predicting Republicans gaining a 20+ seat advantage pick-ups and a few were even predicting 55 seats Senate advantage.

Those heady scenarios didn’t occur. In fact, the absolute converse scenario occurred and if anything, this time next month, they’ll have 1, maybe 2-seat majority in the Senate.

The predicted “red wave” arse-kicking didn’t occur and it’s highly presumptuous to even predict which parties chances are or aren’t going to be two years from now.

 

[MT15]

It's true - but I think there's a huge difference between 2023 and 2015 as far as who the public knows Trump to be and what Trump is offering.

In 2015, Trump was perceived to be a businessman who was on a platform of opposing the quasi-monarchy that had developed going from one Bush/Clinton to another . . . and this one in particularly, Hillary, had a lot of entrenched negativity around her (unfair or not). He offered to drain the swamp by being a strong man, with his own wealth and power, that would insist on sensible, transparent way of conducting business in Washington, rejecting the power bases that come from incumbency and special interests in Congress. Then, on top of that, he brought a rhetorical style that appealed to the American right that was slipping further into populism where cheap slogans and superficial nationalism prevail over meaningful policy - a movement that really began with the Tea Party. His ability to belittle opposition with school-yard bully tactics worked with all of this rather than against it.

In 2023, Trump now comes with a record as president that failed, in many respects, to deliver on his shiny promises in 2015, and one that saw his narcissistic personality disorder only grow more and more acute - to the point where it swallowed so much of the rest of his agenda. He was impeached twice. He fomented an insurrection and blatantly challenged the Constitution of the United States. He is under multiple criminal investigations that appear to have real legs. He is backed into a corner with little else to offer but more of the same . . . Donald effing Trump and all of the blowhard, ego-maniacal bullshirt that goes with him. The cult still love him but that's not enough, and it's not the same size as it used to be.

The GOP have to know that there is a chunk of the American middle, whether moderate Republicans or independents that know that Donald Trump is nothing but toxic - and they will not vote for him. Full stop. IMO at least.

I don’t disagree with anything you say. But Trump destroyed every “normal” R in 2016 primaries and had them pivot completely. I’m not sure it won’t happen again. If Rs had any courage, integrity or any inclination to uphold their oaths of office, they would have dealt with Trump when they had the perfect chance. I cannot think they’re about to do it now.