The trade and economy mega-thread (2 Viewers)

DJ1BigTymer said:

This will be in the running for the "Dumbest Thing He Did" Award! He's going to open up a trade war with Mexico and Canada when he is the father of the trade deal with Mexico and Canada (USMCA).

I am certain that it will face some heavy competition as time goes by.

Click to expand...

I've read he wants to eliminate income tax and replace it with tariffs on imports.
I recall the first "trade war" he started, the Gov't had to bail out farmers to the tune of billions. I think soybean farmers got hit especially hard.

zztop said:

I've read he wants to eliminate income tax and replace it with tariffs on imports.
I recall the first "trade war" he started, the Gov't had to bail out farmers to the tune of billions. I think soybean farmers got hit especially hard.

Click to expand...

Ain’t gonna happen.

Total income tax revenue was $2.18 Trillion for fiscal 2023. Total imports for fiscal 2023 were $3.83 Trillion. 25% tariff on all imports would be $958 Billion. Mix in the impact of tariffs on US exports and you would get, imo, a major collapse of the U.S. economy resulting in worldwide recession or depression.

Of course, since Trump is stupid he may well try to pull that off.

bird said:

Of course, since Trump is stupid he may well try to pull that off.

Click to expand...

I agree with you lol

The Fed held rates steady today . . . Trump big mad, now claiming Powell is creating inflation. Trump is very much going to do all he can to try to make the Fed chair do his bidding.

superchuck500 said:

The Fed held rates steady today . . . Trump big mad, now claiming Powell is creating inflation. Trump is very much going to do all he can to try to make the Fed chair do his bidding.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/29/fed-meeting-live-updates-traders-await-fed-chair-powells-comments.html

Click to expand...

If the Fed drops rates then credit becomes cheaper. The psychological response by producers, wholesalers and retailers would be to raise prices. That is inflation. Consumers would possibly get lower introductory rates on credit cards which would drive debt up increasing the likelihood of defaults if wages do not increase. The same would potentially apply to mortgages.

I'm so tempted to try to time the market and move to cash -- b/c everything just seems like we're going to see a pullback. But it goes against my general investment philosophy of not timing the market and just slowly accumulate over time.

superchuck500 said:

Click to expand...

How soon do we see an order not to kill chickens? I know trumps mouth was talking about that blaming Biden for killing chickens. like it was done for fun or something.

UncleTrvlingJim said:

I'm so tempted to try to time the market and move to cash -- b/c everything just seems like we're going to see a pullback. But it goes against my general investment philosophy of not timing the market and just slowly accumulate over time.

Click to expand...

FA here... give me a call. hahaha.

UncleTrvlingJim said:

I'm so tempted to try to time the market and move to cash -- b/c everything just seems like we're going to see a pullback. But it goes against my general investment philosophy of not timing the market and just slowly accumulate over time.

Click to expand...

part of me wants to as well.

simply to avoid a "bottom falling out" and having to take another 18 months to claw back all the gains lost.

im not getting younger and investment time is becoming more and more limited.

Coupled with the fact that a 10% correction in my portfolio today isnt quite the same as a 10% correction 20 years ago.

But my FA is super conservative in this regard - not likely advising to do but maybe on some of my more volatile stocks.

It’s official

superchuck500 said:

It’s official

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/01/tariffs-trump-mexico-canada-china-imports-white-house.html

Click to expand...

It’ll cost the average taxpayer at least around $830 more in taxes each year

Concepts of a plan and this di**heads obsession with President McKinley and tariffs

Heathen said:

It’ll cost the average taxpayer at least around $830 more in taxes each year

Concepts of a plan and this di**heads obsession with President McKinley and tariffs

Click to expand...

2% if net income is $40,000 a year. .2% if net income is $400,000. The poor are getting screwed.

Neworleansfan said:

2% if net income is $40,000 a year. .2% if net income is $400,000. The poor are getting screwed.

Click to expand...

That’s the entire point of everything, isn’t it?

From The WSJ Editorial Board:

The Dumbest Trade War in History​

Trump will impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for no good reason.​

President Trump will fire his first tariff salvo on Saturday against those notorious American adversaries . . . Mexico and Canada. They’ll get hit with a 25% border tax, while China, a real adversary, will endure 10%. This reminds us of the old Bernard Lewis joke that it’s risky to be America’s enemy but it can be fatal to be its friend.

Leaving China aside, Mr. Trump’s justification for this economic assault on the neighbors makes no sense. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says they’ve “enabled illegal drugs to pour into America.” But drugs have flowed into the U.S. for decades, and will continue to do so as long as Americans keep using them. Neither country can stop it.

Drugs may be an excuse since Mr. Trump has made clear he likes tariffs for their own sake. “We don’t need the products that they have,” Mr. Trump said on Thursday. “We have all the oil you need. We have all the trees you need, meaning the lumber.”