2024 GOP Presidential Race (1 Viewer)

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    SteveSBrickNJ

    SteveSBrickNJ

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    Many of Trump's endorsed candidates did not do well on Nov. 8th.
    *
    Gov. Ron DeSantis DID do well.
    He won convincingly.
    Yet in this OP's opinion, Donald Trump is an egomaniac who is seemingly incapable of putting "Party over Self"
    Trump has ZERO chance of being elected our next president.
    In my opinion, if Trump would just shut up and go away (fat chance of that)...but "if" Trump did that, Gov. Ron DeSantis would have a CHANCE to be a formidable candidate for President in 2024.
    Here is an interesting article on this topic...
    www.scotsman.com

    Donald Trump warns Ron DeSantis against 2024 presidential bid as Republican rising star wins big

    Donald Trump has warned Florida's Governor Ron DeSantis against running for president in 2024, saying doing so would harm the Republican Party.
    www.scotsman.com www.scotsman.com
    *
    *
    What do any of you think re. Trump vs DeSantis?
     
    Evidently they are claiming they have restored all but around 100 of the voter registrations. Of course the state first said the issue only affected about 200-300 voters to begin with and it was 10x that number.
     
    BEDFORD, N.H. — Some moderate Republican voters here recoiled at ads that Ron DeSantis’s allies started running last month broadcasting the Florida governor’s vows to use deadly force at the southern border.

    “I don’t like the fact that we’re going to start murdering people,” said Becki Kuhns, 71, who is eager for an alternative to Donald Trump and brought up the commercials unprompted.


    Down the road at a cigar bar in Nashua, where regulars talk politics and watch debates together, a different DeSantis problem came into focus: Trump supporters were unmoved by DeSantis’s pitch that he’d deliver the former president’s agenda more effectively.

    The people he’s targeting “belong to Trump,” said Howard Ray, 43, who went to a DeSantis event but wasn’t persuaded. “He comes across kind of hard right.”
He added: “Those types of people are in Trump’s camp, and they’re not moving.”


    DeSantis began the year widely viewed as the Republican with the best chance to build a winning coalition against the former president — the Trump alternative who could entice Trump critics yet was also in many ways a continuation of Trump’s “America First” platform.

    But DeSantis’s support has shrunk dramatically since then, eroding on both ends of the party spectrum, interviews with dozens of early state voters, as well as pollsters and strategists, show.

    The GOP minority that disapproves of Trump — and that favored DeSantis before he and most other candidates announced — has splintered to other hopefuls.

    Boosted by them and by independents, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley has surpassed DeSantis in New Hampshire and, in one poll released Monday, pulled even with the Florida governor in Iowa — where DeSantis has poured his resources.

    At the same time, DeSantis has struggled among Trump supporters, losing ground with those who approve of the former president, who has used his four criminal indictments to re-energize a base that once looked readier to move on from him.

    And DeSantis has struggled on both ends to make personal appeals that resonate, with a stiffer presentation than freewheeling Trump.


    Now, DeSantis is left in a perilous position with just over two months until the first nominating contest, mired in a second tier of candidates well behind Trump……

     
    Optimus Prime said:






    www.politico.com

    3 Expert Shoemakers Say Ron DeSantis Is Probably Wearing Height Boosters

    The internet has questions about the governor’s boots. So I asked the experts.
    www.politico.com www.politico.com
    Click to expand...


    www.threads.net

    Charlotte Clymer (@charlotte.clymer) on Threads

    Ron DeSantis is getting a lot of criticism for wearing heel lifts in his boots, adding several inches to his height, ostensibly to avoid being emasculated, and I just want him and his team to know that I support the governor's right to gender-affirming practices.
    www.threads.net www.threads.net
     
    MT15 said:
    Evidently they are claiming they have restored all but around 100 of the voter registrations. Of course the state first said the issue only affected about 200-300 voters to begin with and it was 10x that number.
    Click to expand...
    and as soon as one of them votes, even though they have been restored, they'll accuse them of voter fraud..
     
    Optimus Prime said:
    I didn’t see them but my girlfriend said she saw two anti Haley commercials earlier today

    So her momentum has been noticed
    Click to expand...
    Could she tell who put them out? I wondered if they came from Trump or DeSantis?
     
    Two things can be true in the Republican presidential primary: one, that Nikki Haley is the first candidate to supplant Ron DeSantis as the race’s Donald Trump alternative; two, that it’s probably for naught — that Trump has things sewn up.

    But what if the second isn’t actually the case? Given Haley’s momentum in the race, it’s worth asking a question we had long asked about DeSantis: Can she beat Trump? And if so, how?

    New polling confirms Haley’s upward trajectory.

    She had previously overtaken DeSantis in New Hampshire and her home state of South Carolina, and a new CNN poll in South Carolina out Tuesday showed her doubling up the Florida governor, 22 percent to his 11 percent.

    That’s on top of the venerable Iowa Poll this weekend, which showed her drawing even with DeSantis for the first time in what will be the contest’s earliest state.

    Despite these developments in Haley’s favor, the doubters have come out strong. Trump is still flirting with half of the vote in the early states, they note, with little signs of decline. He’s still taking more of the vote than Haley and DeSantis combined in all early states. Trump’s supporters are more devoted to and enthusiastic about their candidate. What’s more, Haley is drawing primarily from a relatively small pot of non-MAGA voters; if either Trump or DeSantis suddenly faded, the data suggest it would accrue to the other man’s benefit, rather than to hers.

    All of that is true. But none of it means, as one recent headline stated flatly, that “Haley has no path to nomination.”

    So let’s, for argument’s sake, look at what that path — however unlikely — could be.

    One reason we can’t rule this out right now is that the undercard is fluid. We’re confronting a dynamic different from what we’ve seen before in this race, with Haley laying claim to the challenger mantle. This will result in increased scrutiny of her, and voters who perhaps didn’t consider her before may give her a fresh look.

    If the choice now looks more like Trump vs. Haley than Trump vs. DeSantis, that’s a new one for voters. It’s more Trump vs. a different path, rather than Trump vs. a supposedly more electable Trump Lite.

    Haley’s base of support, at the very least, appears to span more parts of the party. Unlike DeSantis, she hasn’t alienated moderate voters. Unlike other candidates who have sought to appeal to the party’s mainstream, she hasn’t alienated the hardcore MAGA base (at least yet). The Iowa Poll shows she’s nearly as popular as both Trump and DeSantis there, and she actually holds a slight lead in the suburbs.

    “It’s not just one particular group where she’s really dug in,” J. Ann Selzer, who conducts the Iowa Poll, told the Des Moines Register. “She’s digging in across demographics.”

    Who knows whether that new dynamic could pan out differently. Continuing to appeal to both MAGA and the rest of the party has proved difficult for other candidates for a reason. DeSantis never really tried it, though he has certainly proved to be a flawed candidate.

    But there have been signs that Trump’s base isn’t quite as committed as it once was. If you’re making a highly optimistic case for Haley, you could say that voters haven’t really been given a clear choice between different types of candidates and a break from Trumpism, but suddenly they will be..............

     
    Optimus Prime said:
    Two things can be true in the Republican presidential primary: one, that Nikki Haley is the first candidate to supplant Ron DeSantis as the race’s Donald Trump alternative; two, that it’s probably for naught — that Trump has things sewn up.

    But what if the second isn’t actually the case? Given Haley’s momentum in the race, it’s worth asking a question we had long asked about DeSantis: Can she beat Trump? And if so, how?

    New polling confirms Haley’s upward trajectory.

    She had previously overtaken DeSantis in New Hampshire and her home state of South Carolina, and a new CNN poll in South Carolina out Tuesday showed her doubling up the Florida governor, 22 percent to his 11 percent.

    That’s on top of the venerable Iowa Poll this weekend, which showed her drawing even with DeSantis for the first time in what will be the contest’s earliest state.

    Despite these developments in Haley’s favor, the doubters have come out strong. Trump is still flirting with half of the vote in the early states, they note, with little signs of decline. He’s still taking more of the vote than Haley and DeSantis combined in all early states. Trump’s supporters are more devoted to and enthusiastic about their candidate. What’s more, Haley is drawing primarily from a relatively small pot of non-MAGA voters; if either Trump or DeSantis suddenly faded, the data suggest it would accrue to the other man’s benefit, rather than to hers.

    All of that is true. But none of it means, as one recent headline stated flatly, that “Haley has no path to nomination.”

    So let’s, for argument’s sake, look at what that path — however unlikely — could be.

    One reason we can’t rule this out right now is that the undercard is fluid. We’re confronting a dynamic different from what we’ve seen before in this race, with Haley laying claim to the challenger mantle. This will result in increased scrutiny of her, and voters who perhaps didn’t consider her before may give her a fresh look.

    If the choice now looks more like Trump vs. Haley than Trump vs. DeSantis, that’s a new one for voters. It’s more Trump vs. a different path, rather than Trump vs. a supposedly more electable Trump Lite.

    Haley’s base of support, at the very least, appears to span more parts of the party. Unlike DeSantis, she hasn’t alienated moderate voters. Unlike other candidates who have sought to appeal to the party’s mainstream, she hasn’t alienated the hardcore MAGA base (at least yet). The Iowa Poll shows she’s nearly as popular as both Trump and DeSantis there, and she actually holds a slight lead in the suburbs.

    “It’s not just one particular group where she’s really dug in,” J. Ann Selzer, who conducts the Iowa Poll, told the Des Moines Register. “She’s digging in across demographics.”

    Who knows whether that new dynamic could pan out differently. Continuing to appeal to both MAGA and the rest of the party has proved difficult for other candidates for a reason. DeSantis never really tried it, though he has certainly proved to be a flawed candidate.

    But there have been signs that Trump’s base isn’t quite as committed as it once was. If you’re making a highly optimistic case for Haley, you could say that voters haven’t really been given a clear choice between different types of candidates and a break from Trumpism, but suddenly they will be..............

    Click to expand...
    Now I will sit back and wait for those who dismissed me saying that Haley had the best path to beat Trump...dismissed me 3 months ago and 2 months ago. Will those people admit that I was ahead of the curve....and I was...wasn't I? :unsure:
     
    SteveSBrickNJ said:
    Now I will sit back and wait for those who dismissed me saying that Haley had the best path to beat Trump...dismissed me 3 months ago and 2 months ago. Will those people admit that I was ahead of the curve....and I was...wasn't I? :unsure:
    Click to expand...
    I don't know if I doubted Haley's path to beat Trump, but I do doubt it. I think she would be a formidable general election candidate, and probably more formidable than Trump, but winning the Republican primary is another story. The article said as much, because the majority of DeSantis voters will probably not vote for Haley. If Trump goes away, DeSantis will inherit the vast majority of his voters, and vice versa. I think if she were running against Biden in the general, Haley would win, because Haley can draw more independents than most other Republican candidates, and she'd probably even draw some moderate Democrats, but she'll have a hard time winning most state primaries.
     
    SteveSBrickNJ said:
    Now I will sit back and wait for those who dismissed me saying that Haley had the best path to beat Trump...dismissed me 3 months ago and 2 months ago. Will those people admit that I was ahead of the curve....and I was...wasn't I? :unsure:
    Click to expand...
    She's still polling at about half of Desantis' numbers nationally:
    Screenshot_20231101-172524-349.png


    I still maintain that short of Trump dying.. there is no path for any other candidate.
     
    Lapaz said:
    I don't know if I doubted Haley's path to beat Trump, but I do doubt it. I think she would be a formidable general election candidate, and probably more formidable than Trump, but winning the Republican primary is another story. The article said as much, because the majority of DeSantis voters will probably not vote for Haley. If Trump goes away, DeSantis will inherit the vast majority of his voters, and vice versa. I think if she were running against Biden in the general, Haley would win, because Haley can draw more independents than most other Republican candidates, and she'd probably even draw some moderate Democrats, but she'll have a hard time winning most state primaries.
    Click to expand...
    If Trump is not able to run because of being taken off the ballot or for any other reasons, I do not agree the "DeSantis will inherit the vast majority of his voters".
    I don't think die hard Trumpers like DeSantis.
    Everything else you said I can agree with.
     
    bdb13 said:
    She's still polling at about half of Desantis' numbers nationally:
    Screenshot_20231101-172524-349.png


    I still maintain that short of Trump dying.. there is no path for any other candidate.
    Click to expand...
    Once the general populace perceives DeSantis to be the declining candidate who is destined to lose....and they perceive Haley as the rising star with the only "non Trump" chance of winning....THAT PERCEPTION will cause the poll you quoted to become antiquated.
    The upcoming Perceived Momentum will become ACTUAL momentum!
    Remember....you heard it here first! :giggle:;)
     
    SteveSBrickNJ said:
    Now I will sit back and wait for those who dismissed me saying that Haley had the best path to beat Trump...dismissed me 3 months ago and 2 months ago. Will those people admit that I was ahead of the curve....and I was...wasn't I? :unsure:
    Click to expand...
    Sorry, unless Trump keels over, Haley isn't winning the primary. Republicans, more specifically Maga Republicans aren't gonna vote for her. And there are more Maga Republicans than sane ones.
     
    DaveXA said:
    Sorry, unless Trump keels over, Haley isn't winning the primary. Republicans, more specifically Maga Republicans aren't gonna vote for her. And there are more Maga Republicans than sane ones.
    Click to expand...
    Sorry, but eventually people will realize that Trump has zero chance to beat Biden.
    A vote for Trump will be a vote for 4 more years of Biden.
    When Rs realize that Haley could beat Biden in the General Election, but Trump couldn't...she will get more support than you think.
     

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