Trump Tracker Too (2 Trump 2 Tracker) (5 Viewers)

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EmBeeFiveOhFour

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The football board had the very useful Daily Trump Tracker thread, which was a good place to briefly discuss the latest ridiculous thing that might have ended 97% of prior Presidential administrations even if it didn't necessarily justify an entire thread devoted to it in 2017-2019 (because of the sheer volume of these things). Since I don't see anything like that here already, I'll add one myself.
 

Optimus Prime

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Glad to see Obama get more involved
====================================

As former president Barack Obama prepares to hit the campaign trail to boost Joe Biden’s bid for the White House, he lashed out at President Trump on Wednesday. In an interview on the liberal “Pod Save America” podcast, Obama particularly blasted his successor for continuing to spread misinformation.

“Trump is a symptom of [misinformation] and an accelerant to it,” Obama said. “When you look at insane conspiracy theories like QAnon seeping into the mainstream of the Republican Party, what that tells you is that there are no more guardrails within that media ecosystem.” (QAnon followers believe, baselessly, President Trump is battling a cabal of “deep state” saboteurs who worship Satan and traffic children for sex.)

The interview comes as Obama reportedly plots a swing through key battleground states like Florida and Wisconsin to make a closing argument for his former vice president less than three weeks before the election. It also represents the latest instance of him upping his rhetoric against Trump. Where Obama was once reticent to verbally spar with the president, in recent months, he has issued dire warnings about Trump’s leadership in a fiery Democratic National Convention speech and slammed the president in campaign ads...............................

 

superchuck500

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The briefing schedule on the Carroll case is Oct. 5 for Carroll to file her opposition to DOJ's removal and substitution, and Oct. 19 for the Government's reply memo.
Just to update this, Carroll filed her opposition to the USA's removal and substitution. It is here: https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.nysd.543790/gov.uscourts.nysd.543790.16.0_1.pdf

And the USA's reply brief is due October 19. The Court has set oral argument for October 21, it should be interesting.
 

Optimus Prime

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Article on where the polls are at
==============================

Joe Biden is holding on to his sizable lead over President Donald Trump in the national polls, but there are reasons for the Democratic nominee to worry about the handful of key states that could ultimately decide the election.

With just 19 days left until the Nov. 3 election, Biden's position on a national level looks strong, according to major polling trackers..............

Yet Biden holds a narrower advantage in states that will likely decide an Electoral College victory.

RealClearPolitics' gauge of polls in six crucial battleground states — Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and North Carolina — currently shows Biden with a 4.9-point lead over Trump.

Those same states showed a larger gap in the polls for former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton at this point in the 2016 race against Trump, which she lost. On Oct. 15, 2016, Clinton was 5.4 percentage points over Trump in those key swing states, according to RealClearPolitics.

Republicans are also outpacing Democrats in voter registration in swing states. In North Carolina, for example, Democrats lead Republicans in registered voters by a difference of nearly 400,000. That's down from the same reporting period in 2016, when Democrats had about 645,000 more voters registered in the state................

 

efil4

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Article on where the polls are at
==============================

Joe Biden is holding on to his sizable lead over President Donald Trump in the national polls, but there are reasons for the Democratic nominee to worry about the handful of key states that could ultimately decide the election.

With just 19 days left until the Nov. 3 election, Biden's position on a national level looks strong, according to major polling trackers..............

Yet Biden holds a narrower advantage in states that will likely decide an Electoral College victory.

RealClearPolitics' gauge of polls in six crucial battleground states — Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and North Carolina — currently shows Biden with a 4.9-point lead over Trump.

Those same states showed a larger gap in the polls for former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton at this point in the 2016 race against Trump, which she lost. On Oct. 15, 2016, Clinton was 5.4 percentage points over Trump in those key swing states, according to RealClearPolitics.

Republicans are also outpacing Democrats in voter registration in swing states. In North Carolina, for example, Democrats lead Republicans in registered voters by a difference of nearly 400,000. That's down from the same reporting period in 2016, when Democrats had about 645,000 more voters registered in the state................


i welcome these types of articles.

Reminds voters, even 19 days out, you need to VOTE. Dont look at polls and think "sheesh Biden up by 7 so my vote really wont matter".

Keep them engaged with eyes on the ultimate prize.
 

Sandman

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Article on where the polls are at
==============================

Joe Biden is holding on to his sizable lead over President Donald Trump in the national polls, but there are reasons for the Democratic nominee to worry about the handful of key states that could ultimately decide the election.

With just 19 days left until the Nov. 3 election, Biden's position on a national level looks strong, according to major polling trackers..............

Yet Biden holds a narrower advantage in states that will likely decide an Electoral College victory.

RealClearPolitics' gauge of polls in six crucial battleground states — Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and North Carolina — currently shows Biden with a 4.9-point lead over Trump.

Those same states showed a larger gap in the polls for former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton at this point in the 2016 race against Trump, which she lost. On Oct. 15, 2016, Clinton was 5.4 percentage points over Trump in those key swing states, according to RealClearPolitics.

Republicans are also outpacing Democrats in voter registration in swing states. In North Carolina, for example, Democrats lead Republicans in registered voters by a difference of nearly 400,000. That's down from the same reporting period in 2016, when Democrats had about 645,000 more voters registered in the state................

But the difference is that there were more undecided voters at this point in 2016. Everything I am seeing is that Biden is hitting 50% in a number of the swing states, while back in 2016, Hillary never hit that number.

50% is big. That means that Trump has to convince Biden voters to switch in order to win. A lot harder to do than to get an undecided vote.

50-46 is much stronger than 45-40.
 

efil4

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But the difference is that there were more undecided voters at this point in 2016. Everything I am seeing is that Biden is hitting 50% in a number of the swing states, while back in 2016, Hillary never hit that number.

50% is big. That means that Trump has to convince Biden voters to switch in order to win. A lot harder to do than to get an undecided vote.

50-46 is much stronger than 45-40.
Totally agree.


Couple that with his lead has been consistent/steady over the last 60-90 days. If you compare to 2016, there were many ups and downs and lead changes ( when accounting for margin of error )
 

Brandon13

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But the difference is that there were more undecided voters at this point in 2016. Everything I am seeing is that Biden is hitting 50% in a number of the swing states, while back in 2016, Hillary never hit that number.

50% is big. That means that Trump has to convince Biden voters to switch in order to win. A lot harder to do than to get an undecided vote.

50-46 is much stronger than 45-40.
From listening to what they said today on Morning Joe, the worry is that Trump may have attracted a sizable number of white non-college educated individuals who do not have a voting history and are being missed in the polls. They cited some of the numbers about how Republican registration has been up in I think Pennsylvania and maybe a couple of the other Midwestern battleground states since this most recent primary season.

It's hard to say how any of this will shake out until we see it, but it seems plausible to me.. you just don't know what turnout of an election like this is going to look like until it actually goes down.
 

Sandman

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From listening to what they said today on Morning Joe, the worry is that Trump may have attracted a sizable number of white non-college educated individuals who do not have a voting history and are being missed in the polls. They cited some of the numbers about how Republican registration has been up in I think Pennsylvania and maybe a couple of the other Midwestern battleground states since this most recent primary season.

It's hard to say how any of this will shake out until we see it, but it seems plausible to me.. you just don't know what turnout of an election like this is going to look like until it actually goes down.
My understanding is that the pollsters having been polling white, non-college educated more this go around because of 2016 to account for that demographic. Have they done enough? I couldn’t say, but they are trying to account for this demographic.
 

samiam5211

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Joe Biden is over fifty percent on polls that ask people’s personal opinion of him. Did Hillary ever get into the 40s?

Joe’s support may not have enthusiasm, but it does not have the disgust that some of Hillary’s support had. Joe’s poll numbers are going to more reliable than Hillary’s.
 

coldseat

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From listening to what they said today on Morning Joe, the worry is that Trump may have attracted a sizable number of white non-college educated individuals who do not have a voting history and are being missed in the polls. They cited some of the numbers about how Republican registration has been up in I think Pennsylvania and maybe a couple of the other Midwestern battleground states since this most recent primary season.

It's hard to say how any of this will shake out until we see it, but it seems plausible to me.. you just don't know what turnout of an election like this is going to look like until it actually goes down.
That's already his primary voting block. Doesn't really make sense that there's a large additional number of those voter out there. You'd think they would already be accounted for in poling.
 

GrandAdmiral

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Joe Biden is over fifty percent on polls that ask people’s personal opinion of him. Did Hillary ever get into the 40s?

Joe’s support may not have enthusiasm, but it does not have the disgust that some of Hillary’s support had. Joe’s poll numbers are going to more reliable than Hillary’s.
Yeah. I don't think Hillary ever hit 50% on anything, except perhaps unlikability.
 

MT15

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I know this is somewhat anecdotal but I saw a lady on TV who does focus groups. She had one that consisted entirely of white, no college women who voted for Trump in 2016. She brought them back together just recently, after the first debate and after Trump got Covid. She said not one of them planned to vote for him again. As she put it, I couldn’t find one willing to vote for Trump again.
 

CoolBrees

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In true RCP fashion, they are slanting that article toward the R candidate- in this case Trump.

By lumping all fo the swing states together, you lose the advantage that Biden has in the only three that actually matter- Pennsylvania (+6.5 & 50.2%), Michigan (+7.2 & 49.8%) and Wisconsin (6.3 & 49.9%)

The rest of the states are just running up the score.

ETA- that and they include Trafalger, who is notorious for under sampling Dems
 

Brandon13

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My understanding is that the pollsters having been polling white, non-college educated more this go around because of 2016 to account for that demographic. Have they done enough? I couldn’t say, but they are trying to account for this demographic.
That's already his primary voting block. Doesn't really make sense that there's a large additional number of those voter out there. You'd think they would already be accounted for in poling.
Florida Republicans cut Democrats’ registration edge to historic low

By MATT DIXON

10/15/2020 07:59 PM EDT
TALLAHASSEE — Republicans in Florida, a must-win state for President Donald Trump, have narrowed the voter registration gap with Democrats to the lowest level in at least three decades, giving the GOP a shot of momentum as they continue to trail in early turnout.

Republicans now lag Democrats by just 134,242 registered voters, down from 327,483 when Trump won Florida by fewer than 113,000 votes in 2016. The gain is a byproduct of the Trump campaign’s extensive face-to-face ground game and voter registration operation, which continued as Joe Biden and Florida Democrats pulled back from those traditional activities after the coronavirus pandemic erupted in March.

So yeah, my concern is that even though the pollsters have altered their formula to account for more white non-college educated individual voting.. they may still be under counting those individuals who will cast a ballot this time.
 

superchuck500

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He doesn't understand Babylon Bee is satire. He actually believes this. He's one of the dumbest people in America.

Either he’s that unintelligent, or he knows it’s satire but wants Americans to believe it anyway - which, honestly, is much worse than just being a simpleton incapable of detecting satire.
 

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