Trump is done (1 Viewer)

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    st dude

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    Trump is done, stick a fork in him. He will not be re-elected. Don’t ask me what the last straw was for him, I cannot say. It might have been the transcript of the call where he asked Ukraine to investigate the Bidens while withholding military aid. Maybe it was when he doubled down and asked China to investigate a political rival (a fact some of his supporters in Congress incredibly deny he said because it’s otherwise indefensible). It might have been when he withdrew our military from Syria against the advice of his military advisers and his closest supporters. Maybe it was when the news division at Fox stood up on their hind legs and started calling him out. Or perhaps its his increasingly unhinged twitter rants that are making some question his sanity. The latest scandal with his whacked out attorney Giuliani cavorting with criminals cannot help.

    Whatever the last straw was, it is my admittedly amateur political opinion that Trump is no longer electable. Remember this was a president who lost the popular vote. The democrats do not need his supporters to desert him in droves, they just need 10 percent or do. Recent polls show more Republicans than that think he should be impeached. And I don’t think things get better for Trump. It has the feel that it is imploding around him with more and more people he appointed and then fired willing to question his judgment, if not his sanity. It’s just hard for me at this point to see him holding on to enough of his supporters to win. I have friends who voted for him who if presented with an unacceptable democrat choice will simply not vote rather than vote for Trump.

    As for the many I know who voted for Trump I will say this. I understand Clinton was an unacceptable choice to you. I get it if you wanted deregulation or if getting conservatives on the Supreme Court made voting for Trump worth it to you. What is beyond me is how any reasonable person can say Trump is a good man. He is not. He is a narcissist. He is rude and uncivil. He is a serial liar, lying about the stupidest of things. Did you believe him when he claimed his inaugural crowd was the biggest ever? How about when he drew a circle on a weather map to double down on a ridiculous lie that Alabama was in the path of a hurricane? Do his supporters remember when he got on tv and denied paying Stormy Daniels? Can anyone with any intellectual honesty believe he did not withhold military aid to coerce Ukraine to investigate a political rival?

    In my lifetime I have seen nothing like it. I have crossed party lines to vote for many presidents. I was not a fan of the second George Bush nor Richard Nixon. But I never questioned their sanity, I never questioned their patriotism. I was proud of George Bush when he went to the trade center after 9-11.

    Trump is only about Trump. He has no religion, which matters not to me other than the fact the religious right seems him as having some mandate from God. I don’t know that he even cares that much about his kids, what he said about his other daughter was hateful and cruel.

    I’m calling it now. He might make a decent showing, he has his base for sure. But he will not be re-elected. He has lost enough of his base where he will not win. He won by such a narrow margin, he can’t afford to lose any votes and it’s almost impossible to believe the combination of his recent shenanigans will not cost him some votes.
     
    The Clinton Foundation: four branches of the FBI investigated it, congressional investigations were had, and an IG report. Additionally, the controversy in question was the problematic nature of foreign interests donating money to the foundation in the fear it would create conflicts of interest(a justifiable concern)....Which sounds familiar.

    Investigate all the PACs and Foundations and "non"-profits - of all persuasions. Seriously, we can't expect to open the barn door (Citizens United) and be surprised to find grifters taking advantage. Legally.

    We need to be pragmatic and work for the common good. Let the IRS and career public servants do their thing.
     
    Yeah, I'm still not buying it. There are enough blind fans who play the 'ignore all facts.. It's us vs them'. game to put Trump in again. Just look at places like Florida, which has turned more red. It's the fact that there is no challenging Republican. It's the fact that now more than ever, politics has turned into a college football rivalry over deciding what is best for the country despite perceived position on a spectrum.

    Folks like my parents are countless.. They know deep down that Trump isn't a good dude, but wouldnt be caught dead voting for a Democrat because theres some bs 'right and wrong' tie with their religion intertwined. They truly believe the shills on AFR who peddle 'the left is trying to get rid of jesus in our schools, commit abortion, introduce socialism' line. It works on them and so many others.

    I think Trump unfortunately still has a good shot at reelection.


    There are absolutely lots and lots of people as you describe who know deep down Trump is a bad guy but will still vote for him. But there are also people I talk to who voted for Trump and will not vote for him again. They might stay away from the polls rather than vote for Warren or Sanders, but it still will cost Trump votes.

    My point is that Trump lost the popular vote first time around, he can’t afford to lose voters, even if it’s just 5 or 10 percent.
     
    Investigate all the PACs and Foundations and "non"-profits - of all persuasions. Seriously, we can't expect to open the barn door (Citizens United) and be surprised to find grifters taking advantage. Legally.

    We need to be pragmatic and work for the common good. Let the IRS and career public servants do their thing.
    And to go back to our other discussion, the structural solution to me is to strengthen the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act to deal with the international element, and to put much stricter financial disclosure and decoupling as a requirement for major public office at home.

    As it both makes the lines in the legal sand of investigations of wrongdoing more clear, but pre-empts the problem while helping avoid the problem of a grey area being weaponized by bad-faith partisans.
     
    There are absolutely lots and lots of people as you describe who know deep down Trump is a bad guy but will still vote for him. But there are also people I talk to who voted for Trump and will not vote for him again. They might stay away from the polls rather than vote for Warren or Sanders, but it still will cost Trump votes.

    My point is that Trump lost the popular vote first time around, he can’t afford to lose voters, even if it’s just 5 or 10 percent.
    The family I have in Florida that didn't vote in 2016(Mother, Step-Father, Brother, Cousins, nephews), and a couple that reluctantly voted Trump(Aunt, another nephew).

    A little over half voted in 2018 for a mix of Republicans/Democrats.

    They have almost all stated without provocation that they will absolutely vote for whoever is running against Trump in 2020.

    These are illustrations of people Trump both can't afford to show up in even moderate numbers or have flip on him.

    75,000 votes across three states against another historically unpopular candidate is the narrowest of electoral margins. And the talk of him pushing for places like Minnesota evokes to me the over-confidence the left had that led to Hillary campaigning in Arizona and not defending her flank in Michigan.
     
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    Investigate all the PACs and Foundations and "non"-profits - of all persuasions. Seriously, we can't expect to open the barn door (Citizens United) and be surprised to find grifters taking advantage. Legally.

    We need to be pragmatic and work for the common good. Let the IRS and career public servants do their thing.


    Make donations transparent. Don't let donors hide behind superpacs. Put a cap on the amount that a private person can donate and make all Company donations public information. This way everyone can see who pays who...
     
    What leads you to conclude she is not sincere in her beliefs?
    I don't believe she is sincere about anything other than money and attention.



    Why even say that? What's the goal? I'll tell you, she has an audience that wants to believe the crap she spews and they are willing to pay her to say it. See a fool, use a fool.




    2015 - Degree180 a marketing agency that offered consultation, production, planning services and anti-conservative blog - Failed

    2016 - SocialAutopsy.com a website she said would expose bullies on the Internet by tracking their digital footprint - Failed

    2017 - You Tube Conservative Activist - Yahtzee!!!
     
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    I agree! Even Fox News polls have him losing hard in a potential matchup with any of the Democratic frontrunners. Writing's on the wall.
    this is the part i find interesting
    so far Trump has been able to insulate himself from much criticism bc he keeps it on fox 24/7
    Fox has already shown some cracks - how long can they stay trump's media arm?
    if fox really starts to shift, Trump is going to have to have 3 rallies a week to feed his ego (i don't think i'm exaggerating)
    he won't be able to bunker
    he can't just throw lawyers at the problem

    as an exercise, we should probably draw up a list of countries that have a Trump property and no extradition treaties with the US
     
    I don't believe she is sincere about anything other than money and attention.



    Why even say that? What's the goal? I'll tell you, she has an audience that wants to believe the crap she spews and they are willing to pay her to say it. See a fool, use a fool.




    2015 - Degree180 a marketing agency that offered consultation, production, planning services and anti-conservative blog - Failed

    2016 - SocialAutopsy.com a website she said would expose bullies on the Internet by tracking their digital footprint - Failed

    2017 - You Tube Conservative Activist - Yahtzee!!!


    one of the other things about Owens and those like her - or perhaps their target audience - are so often grousing about “identity politics” and how we need less of it. But what she and Shapiro and Kirk and Peterson and others routinely do is precisely “identity politics”

    that leads me to believe that it’s not about the principle of identity politics but rather whether or not the “identity” in question speaks to you. And if it does, then it’s okay. If it doesn’t, rage against the IP Man.
     
    oh, and if there's one phrase that's more meaningless and less constructive than "identity politics" it's "cancel culture" and the venn diagram between people who try to weaponize each of these phrases is a single circle
     
    There are absolutely lots and lots of people as you describe who know deep down Trump is a bad guy but will still vote for him. But there are also people I talk to who voted for Trump and will not vote for him again. They might stay away from the polls rather than vote for Warren or Sanders, but it still will cost Trump votes.

    My point is that Trump lost the popular vote first time around, he can’t afford to lose voters, even if it’s just 5 or 10 percent.

    I sure hope you're right.
     
    I agree with dude on this. There is a palpable disdain for Trump starting to emerge.

    I know I mentioned this before, but on a recent road trip we were traveling through a rural farming area, lots of corn, soybeans and hogs. We saw this sign in the yard of a farmhouse that faced the highway:

    Save Ag
    Save America
    Dump Trump

    He’s not going to be able to pull off another miracle win, I don’t think.
     
    The attorney general also plays identity politics and, more to the point of this thread, the campaign is hitting the same identity politics button and as the Heat intensifies, I think so too do the identity politics appeals

     
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    Let's be honest: he was wholly unelectable the last time. While I would love for him to not be reelected, I have neither the faith in the Democrats to not run a horrible campaign with an unappealing candidate nor the faith in the American people to make a reasonable decision at the ballot box. I'm cautiously optimistic; but, frankly, I'll believe it when I see it.
     
    There are absolutely lots and lots of people as you describe who know deep down Trump is a bad guy but will still vote for him. But there are also people I talk to who voted for Trump and will not vote for him again. They might stay away from the polls rather than vote for Warren or Sanders, but it still will cost Trump votes.

    My point is that Trump lost the popular vote first time around, he can’t afford to lose voters, even if it’s just 5 or 10 percent.
    That's how I see it too. I think that any Democratic nominee will at worst get as many votes as Clinton did. I think since Hilary was so unpopular within the Democratic party, the Democratic nominee is going to see a signifcant gain in votes due to a higher Democratic voter turnout.

    Conversely, I think it's most likely that Trump will see a net loss of votes. I don't think his margin of victory in the close states is enough to hold off even an average of a 5% net loss of votes. If he has an average of 10% to 15% net loss of votes, I think he loses the electoral college by a historic margin. Just like I think Clinton lead to a lower turnout of Democratic voters. I think Trump got a maximum turnout from his supporters.

    Everything I see in the press and hear in the street indicates that no significant number of voters who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 are going to vote for him in 2020. However, it's clear that a significant number of people who voted for him in 2016 are not going to vote for him in 2020. Like you said, even if all of them stay home instead of voting for the Democratic candidate, Trump still most likely loses.

    Trump needs every vote he got in 2016 and then some to win in 2020. It's a classic case of if you're standing pat, then you're getting left behind. Fortunately, his narcissistic hubris is working to the nation's advantage. Trump hasn't really been campaigning, he's been stroking his ego. He's been basking in the adoration of those who already support him unconditionally.

    He's also doubling down on the disinformation campaign. I think that's going to badly backfire on him. He needs to flip voters and I think this choice will only drive those voters farther away from him and into voting for a Democratic candidate they otherwise wouldn't have voted for. The reverse of the dynamic that played a big part in Trump winning in 2016.
     
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    I don't believe she is sincere about anything other than money and attention.

    [...]

    2015 - Degree180 a marketing agency that offered consultation, production, planning services and anti-conservative blog - Failed

    2016 - SocialAutopsy.com a website she said would expose bullies on the Internet by tracking their digital footprint - Failed

    2017 - You Tube Conservative Activist - Yahtzee!!!
    She was an anti-Trump activist in those Degree180 years. She wrote things like "The good news is, [The Tea Party Republicans] will eventually die off (peacefully in their sleep, we hope)" and the "bat-shirt-crazy antics of the Republican Tea Party."

    On Social Autopsy, she posted people's private details online (doxing) and then blamed it on progressive activists with no evidence. The first time she got any media attention was from this, where pundits/commentators like Milo Yiannopoulos and Mike Cernovich supported her -- and whaddya know, right after this she turned into a conservative in their image.

    She is a charlatan. Your initial statement is 100% correct.
     
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    There are absolutely lots and lots of people as you describe who know deep down Trump is a bad guy but will still vote for him. But there are also people I talk to who voted for Trump and will not vote for him again. They might stay away from the polls rather than vote for Warren or Sanders, but it still will cost Trump votes.

    My point is that Trump lost the popular vote first time around, he can’t afford to lose voters, even if it’s just 5 or 10 percent.
    I can see people sitting at home if Biden becomes the nominee...
     
    I can see people sitting at home if Biden becomes the nominee...

    Which candidate do you think will have widespread enthusiastic support in a general election?

    The other two front runners seem so far to the left that I just can't see them doing well.

    Warren is in the news for fleshing out her enormously expensive Medicare for all plan, while bragging about the "super duper" enforcement powers she intends to bestow upon the IRS.

    Bernie is in the news for having Omar on stage with him as she calls for the end of Western Imperialism.
     

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