The trade and economy mega-thread (5 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[MT15]

i think its becoming clear that his "tariff %" literally means nothing- its simply bluster - China has already called his bluff 2x now- and both resulted in Trump excluding items from his tariff list ( most recent was electronics )

I said long ago- he backed himself into a corner with no exit strategy. This is going to fail miserably for those who arent in the cult. Cultists will attempt to spin ANY Chinese negotiations as a win- even if we end up RIGHT WHERE WE STARTED.

He’s certainly done that before - end up where he started or worse and claim a Huuge victory.

Not to mention - nobody wants to make a deal with him because he never follows through. His word is garbage - it means less than nothing.

 

[efil4]

This is what winning looks like?

holy crap.

what a coincidence

 

[efil4]

 

[B4YOU]

Won't happen. The desire for cheap goods is too strong and Trump lacks the pull with EU countries.

 

[efil4]

Won't happen. The desire for cheap goods is too strong and Trump lacks the pull with EU countries.

He keeps over-playing his hand. Its comical now.

No country in their right mind would side with US on this. Who would replace the goods, the US? those goods would be exponentially more expensive.

 

[Dragon]

He keeps over-playing his hand. Its comical now.

No country in their right mind would side with US on this. Who would replace the goods, the US? those goods would be exponentially more expensive.

Agree. Why should any country go along with his melagomania. EU is certainly not going to do it. While EU does have a negative trade balance with regards to China, The EU recorded an overall (all nations) trade surplus of approximately €135.8 billion between January and November 2024.

What Trump fails to understand is that while A may have a negative trade surplus with B, B may have a negative Surplus with C which again have a negative surplus with A.

World trade is never just A and B but a delicate balance involving multiple countries and multiple types of "goods"

 

[Dragon]

Trump is going to have a fit. Watch out for 200% tarif on chinese goods.

LOL I called it

 

[MT15]

He keeps over-playing his hand. Its comical now.

No country in their right mind would side with US on this. Who would replace the goods, the US? those goods would be exponentially more expensive.

We don’t make a whole lot of the stuff China sells, and haven’t for a long time. This is stupid.

 

[efil4]

We don’t make a whole lot of the stuff China sells, and haven’t for a long time. This is stupid.

its beyond stupid- 245% on what? He has no idea.

its simply perfomative- for show.

There is no strategic reasoning to levy a 245% tariff on Chinese goods. This will not bring them to the table. This will not knee-cap them. This will not result in US on-shoring manufacturing jobs in the next 12 months.

What it WILL do is expose him as a petulant child, with little to no understanding of economics, that is simply using the office for a massive wealth accumulation campaign and one that will see the US fall behind in global relations for several years. I fear it may get so bad that we will end up having to make deals that are simply not in our best interest because our goodwill/reputation has been obliterated.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[superchuck500]

 

[efil4]

its beyond stupid- 245% on what? He has no idea.

its simply perfomative- for show.

There is no strategic reasoning to levy a 245% tariff on Chinese goods. This will not bring them to the table. This will not knee-cap them. This will not result in US on-shoring manufacturing jobs in the next 12 months.

What it WILL do is expose him as a petulant child, with little to no understanding of economics, that is simply using the office for a massive wealth accumulation campaign and one that will see the US fall behind in global relations for several years. I fear it may get so bad that we will end up having to make deals that are simply not in our best interest because our goodwill/reputation has been obliterated.

ok reading the WH transcript- Trump hasnt applied the 245% - says there is a "chance" of up to 245%.

Obviously he thinks this is some sort of coercion to get them to the table.

It aint.

China is Jay Cutler

 

[efil4]

 

[superchuck500]

ok reading the WH transcript- Trump hasnt applied the 245% - says there is a "chance" of up to 245%.

Obviously he thinks this is some sort of coercion to get them to the table.

It aint.

China is Jay Cutler

I think what it is is that some products already had a 100% tariff before this Trump business - so they're now at 245%.

 

[superchuck500]

Jump start your career in mining

But meanwhile (good lord this administration is just such an awful shirt show)

 

[MT15]

Yeah, this is crazy as shirt. Just like whatever moron that was who said that those jobs screwing iPhones together are all coming here - like that would happen and like people would be lining up for those jobs which are sure to be low paying.

 

[bird]

Under this azzhat the gap of a two-tier economy will widen. The majority of work will become unskilled, low tech, low wage manufacturing.

We are in the midst of a planned and executed shift from world technology leader to sweatshop for the world.

 

[longtime lurker]

We’ve hit the icebergs head on….we are taking on water.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/16/global-trade-outlook-for-2025-has-deteriorated-sharply-wto-warns.html