The trade and economy mega-thread (2 Viewers)

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superchuck500

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Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.


 
Posted on Mastodon:
"Five of the world’s richest people attended Trump’s inauguration. They have lost $209 billion since that day
Elon Musk’s net worth has tumbled by $148 billion alone since Trump took office."
~ Katie Hawkinson

He’s so rich he didn’t notice, or figures he’ll be able to recover if from US taxpayers…
 
Lutnick went from all caps “NO RECESSION” to “the recession will be worth it” pretty damn fast, didn’t he?
They are trying this weird combination of "No recession, no inflation", "yes recession, yes inflation but it'll be worth it in the long run" and "yes recession, yes inflation but it'll be all Biden's fault"
 
I'm not sure we've ever really implemented tariffs on this large of a scale and this broadly.

I think it's one thing to tariff steel and aluminum. It's another regarding semi finished or finished vehicles between the US, Canada and Mexico. And food is a whole other thing.

The idea ofa tariff is usually industry protection. I.e. make our steel mills more competitive or not have to compete with low wage low quality steels. That can work when you have the industry, the capacity, and the work force.

However, you can't do it for everything all at once. We just don't have the capital, the equipment, or people. We aren't magically making up the difference in crude oil, petroleum products, and cars.

Speaking of automotive.... the supply chain has been built up over the past 20-30 years due to NAFTA (and Trump's renegotiation of NAFTA) to allow US automates to remain competitive by investing in factories in all three countries. They rely on their Mexican and Canadian factories as part of their supply chain. They rely on being able to go back and forth across the border without tariffs. They cant just change factories, tool it up and go. They'd lose skilled workers. Not everyone would or could move. All the auto makers can do is jack up prices, which are already stupidly high. They aren't going to do major reinvestments into the US. I think short term, they pass the cost to the consumer and try to wait this out.
 
In 2016 I remember Tony Schwartz the co author (or rather the real author) of Trump’s Art of the Deal more or less said the whole thing was made up, pure myth making

No more legit than the story about George Washington and the cherry tree

He regretted it
Which begs the question: why would any rational person do any business with Trump? If they think that they can out scam him then they are delusional.
 
Inflation numbers for February from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is at 2.8%. That is a significant drop from 3.0% a month ago and beats 2.9% forecasts. The concern is can anyone trust any statistics from a government agency under this administration.

 
President Donald Trump took to social media to whine about who negotiated a deal allowing Canada to supply energy to the U.S. — but, it turns out, he made the deal.

Amidst the trade tariffs back-and-forth with Canada and Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who suspended the province’s 25 percent electricity surcharge on three U.S. states Tuesday, Trump fumed on Truth Social: “Why would our Country allow another Country to supply us with electricity, even for a small area?”

“Who made these decisions, and why?” the president demanded.

The decision to maintain the free flow of energy across the borders was part of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement and negotiated by Trump in November 2018 during his first term. It was signed into law in January 2020…….

 
I'm moved my money out of the stock market. I think it's going to keep declining, unless Trump changes his mind about tariffs. Even if he does, the immigration crackdown and layoffs will put downward pressure on the economy. If the tax cuts pass, there will be a temporary bump, but if he keeps the tariffs in place, it'll be a short lived bump. This will continue at least until Republicans finally grow a spine, because Trump won't budge over Democratic protests.
 
I'm moved my money out of the stock market. I think it's going to keep declining, unless Trump changes his mind about tariffs. Even if he does, the immigration crackdown and layoffs will put downward pressure on the economy. If the tax cuts pass, there will be a temporary bump, but if he keeps the tariffs in place, it'll be a short lived bump. This will continue at least until Republicans finally grow a spine, because Trump won't budge over Democratic protests.
I think the premise that a tax cut will automatically give a bump is a mistake. Look at it this way, you are taking money away from the economy and hiding it, expecting an economic slide. Mega rich investors will do that on a much wider scale. They will not trickle down their wealth in a down sliding economy. Who invests in losing money?

In the keynesian model, the government can inject capital, knowing they will lose money. The investment is a shorten recession and future tax revenue with a better economy. These morons are not doing that. I an economy that is, rather was, clearly on an upswing with wages stabilizing, these morons are cutting federal spending. That is gdp contraction right there. And it'll ripple down as those sectors that relies on that federal spending will have to contract their spending bc their revenue will be reduced. And those tertiary sector too will be affected later. It's a shirt show when you add tariffs on top of this.

There has to be a point when Americans have to understand that lowering taxes, especially for the mega wealthy, have consequences.
 
I'm not sure we've ever really implemented tariffs on this large of a scale and this broadly.

I think it's one thing to tariff steel and aluminum. It's another regarding semi finished or finished vehicles between the US, Canada and Mexico. And food is a whole other thing.

The idea ofa tariff is usually industry protection. I.e. make our steel mills more competitive or not have to compete with low wage low quality steels. That can work when you have the industry, the capacity, and the work force.

However, you can't do it for everything all at once. We just don't have the capital, the equipment, or people. We aren't magically making up the difference in crude oil, petroleum products, and cars.

Speaking of automotive.... the supply chain has been built up over the past 20-30 years due to NAFTA (and Trump's renegotiation of NAFTA) to allow US automates to remain competitive by investing in factories in all three countries. They rely on their Mexican and Canadian factories as part of their supply chain. They rely on being able to go back and forth across the border without tariffs. They cant just change factories, tool it up and go. They'd lose skilled workers. Not everyone would or could move. All the auto makers can do is jack up prices, which are already stupidly high. They aren't going to do major reinvestments into the US. I think short term, they pass the cost to the consumer and try to wait this out.
Trump is living in a dreamscape where he’s king of the world and can execute any half assed plan, wave his wand turning turds into the finest vintage wine. He’s charging ahead with crashing the economy, and he thinks he can strong arm the world to submit to his buffoonery. He’s a moron, who thinks tariffs will raise all this revenue without repercussions, that he can then steal his cut. And the longer he stays in place the more we’ll be forked.
 
I think the premise that a tax cut will automatically give a bump is a mistake. Look at it this way, you are taking money away from the economy and hiding it, expecting an economic slide. Mega rich investors will do that on a much wider scale. They will not trickle down their wealth in a down sliding economy. Who invests in losing money?

In the keynesian model, the government can inject capital, knowing they will lose money. The investment is a shorten recession and future tax revenue with a better economy. These morons are not doing that. I an economy that is, rather was, clearly on an upswing with wages stabilizing, these morons are cutting federal spending. That is gdp contraction right there. And it'll ripple down as those sectors that relies on that federal spending will have to contract their spending bc their revenue will be reduced. And those tertiary sector too will be affected later. It's a shirt show when you add tariffs on top of this.

There has to be a point when Americans have to understand that lowering taxes, especially for the mega wealthy, have consequences.
Like no $$$ for infrastructure, public education, affordable medical, social safety nets, etc, etc. 🤔
 
Like no $$$ for infrastructure, public education, affordable medical, social safety nets, etc, etc. 🤔
A lot of that will cause suffering, but cutting down on investments like infrastructure will have an insidious long lasting detrimental affect on our economy.
 
I replied to Aarons post 2 posts before this one - saying there wasnt a single soul in WH that understands economics and that the reporters question ( on tariff war with Canada ) may have well been in Chinese because her answer was misrerable.

This one solidifies it.
Navarro when pressed on Trump's flip flopping tariffs and stock market....

 
He is unhinged.

absolutely is when it comes to this tariff stuff.

He thinks tariffs are him bringing a gun to a knife fight. A way to "scare" opposition into submission of what he wants from them. This is all performative antics - for optics. Thats it.

He says "ill slap 200% on wine if EU doesnt do xxxx" Well what is "xxxx" ? no one knows. He never answers when pressed on "well what did they give up?"

Take Mexico for example- says he "spoke to Pres Sheinbaum- great call and Mexico agreed to work together so im delaying tariff" - AGREED TO WHAT?

Nothing.


So then he can come back and say " i got them to do xxxx" so no tariff- like its a win.

But there is no there, there. Its all smoke and mirrors for optics.

Meanwhile, Wall St doesnt react to kindly to games with economy. See Navarro above when pressed about. "Just stop it" lolol.
 

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