The Joe Biden 2020 tracker thread (11 Viewers)

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    Taurus said:
    Something I think Biden and the DNC need to start thinking about is why this election is even remotely close.
    If Joe were running against a decent human being instead of a living skidmark, he'd be getting curbstomped. Why is that?
    What is it about the Democratic Party that's so off-putting? Or, if it's not the DNC, how is opposition propaganda so effective?
    Click to expand...
    Much of the DNC hierarchy is tone deaf and out of touch with the average American. In 2016 they pushed an elitist in Hillary Clinton against a populist in Trump and paid the price. Biden was the safe pick in 2020 but the party has to stand for something beyond 'he's not Trump.' Things like universal health care and universal basic income are very popular ideas with the vast majority of American people -- you just have to phrase it right and say 'I guarantee every American the right to quality healthcare' as opposed to calling it 'socialized medicine' or even 'medicare for all.' As we head into the debates, Biden needs to emphasize stuff like that and come up with policy solutions to counter Trump's empty gibbering. I also saw some mention of a 'Buy American' initiative in one of Biden's tweets.

    America is a very divided country. Slapping AOC and 'the Squad' on t-shirts and hyping the Green New Deal is not a winning strategy. Focusing on the basic daily needs of the working class is what will work.
     
    Taurus said:
    Something I think Biden and the DNC need to start thinking about is why this election is even remotely close.
    If Joe were running against a decent human being instead of a living skidmark, he'd be getting curbstomped. Why is that?
    What is it about the Democratic Party that's so off-putting? Or, if it's not the DNC, how is opposition propaganda so effective?
    Click to expand...
    It’s not statistically close at this point. Dems need to treat it like it’s close so they don’t lose momentum. Like a football game, taking a lead in the first quarter doesn’t mean crap if you don’t keep being aggressive.
     
    Taurus said:
    Something I think Biden and the DNC need to start thinking about is why this election is even remotely close.
    If Joe were running against a decent human being instead of a living skidmark, he'd be getting curbstomped. Why is that?
    What is it about the Democratic Party that's so off-putting? Or, if it's not the DNC, how is opposition propaganda so effective?
    Click to expand...
    First off, and this applies to Saulgoodman’s post as well, people should keep in mind Hillary Clinton was the chosen president by the American people. By almost 3 million votes.

    In the wise paraphrased words of Steve Bannon, “the Democrats have no Fox News, so we have the messaging advantage.” And no, CNN is not their Fox News, neither is MSNBC. The network that is currently signal boosting a innocuous Biden misstatement to contrast as equal to Trumps thousands of lies. A tendency to find false equivalency to chase “balance” that plays right into the propaganda of the right.

    45% of the electorate are going to vote Republican no matter what.

    There is no magical formula that is going to change that in one election cycle.

    You mobilize one or two constituencies and/or hope you can siphon off enough swing voters to get over the top in the states that matter.

    In that respect Biden is doing exceptionally well. Much better than I anticipated.

    I think when you add in the under discussed levels of voter intimidation and suppression, Trump will be narrowing those margins a lot, possibly even stealing a state or two. And while I also think Biden is missing the messaging on certain topics, I don’t think that is some magic bullet, especially in an election where your opposition sucks all the oxygen out of the room. It is the same problem Hillary ran into early on, you can make a policy speech but no one is going to cover it when Trump is out there saying 3-5 crazy arse things that same day. The debates are really probably the only opportunity for Biden to have that platform and hopefully he has a well tailored message. But it is also worth keeping in mind that the only major issue voters repeatedly show they care about that Biden is not winning on is the economy(which is forking crazy because Republicans are horrendous managers of the economy by historical record). Race, healthcare, corona, leadership, education, climate change, it’s Biden across the board.
     
    Last edited:
    And this is one of the those constituencies that could/will be a big difference maker:

    New Poll: Suburban Women Will Not Vote For Trump

    /PRNewswire/ -- The findings of a new national survey conducted by All In Together, a non-partisan civic education organization, in partnership with Lake...
    www.prnewswire.com www.prnewswire.com

    The survey found:

    • Women voters favor Biden by 11-points, men voters prefer Trump by a 7-point margin (50% Trump, 43% Biden, 7% undecided), for a gender gap of 18-points.
    • Suburban women are voting for Biden (55%) over Trump (41%) with 4% undecided.
    • Nearly half (48%) of suburban women have a very unfavorable impression of Trump.
    • Almost a half (48%) of suburban women believe Trump administration policies have made their communities less safe.
    • The majority of independent women are also voting for Biden (57%) over Trump (31%). In fact, the only group of women Trump continues to hold are non-college educated white women.
    • Women voters have an unfavorable view of President Trump (55% unfavorable, 48% very unfavorable), while 44% have a favorable view of him.
    • Black women continue to be Biden's strongest supporters (84% support to 12% support for Trump).
    • Women under 30 are voting for Biden by the widest margin behind Black women (79% Biden, 18% Trump, 3% undecided).
     
    And, if I’m not mistaken, this poll was taken before RBG passed. Women are extremely motivated and PO’d by Trump and McConnell about their hypocrisy on this issue.
     
    SaulGoodmanEsq said:
    Much of the DNC hierarchy is tone deaf and out of touch with the average American. In 2016 they pushed an elitist in Hillary Clinton against a populist in Trump and paid the price. Biden was the safe pick in 2020 but the party has to stand for something beyond 'he's not Trump.' Things like universal health care and universal basic income are very popular ideas with the vast majority of American people -- you just have to phrase it right and say 'I guarantee every American the right to quality healthcare' as opposed to calling it 'socialized medicine' or even 'medicare for all.' As we head into the debates, Biden needs to emphasize stuff like that and come up with policy solutions to counter Trump's empty gibbering. I also saw some mention of a 'Buy American' initiative in one of Biden's tweets.
    Click to expand...

    Couldn't agree more. Clinton was a boring candidate who came across elitist. Trump is an elitist himself, but his 'I'm not PC' message, which was clearly just doctored BS for the gullible, worked at the time for a populace who fears anything but their 'Mayberry" as 'socialist'.

    America is a very divided country. Slapping AOC and 'the Squad' on t-shirts and hyping the Green New Deal is not a winning strategy. Focusing on the basic daily needs of the working class is what will work.
    Click to expand...

    It may not be now, but give it a few election cycles and I guarantee you it will be roaringly popular. The Democratic party, love it or hate it, has turned sharply left. This is a sign of the times. This is why I'm grateful for Bernie Sanders and the fact that even though he never made it past the primaries -- the ideas he pushed will echo for generations until the US is ready mentally for such a candidate. We're just not at this moment while we're still making excuses for the rich getting tax breaks while condemning struggling Americans getting a few hundred dollars a week. That's a uniquely American problem and cleverly crafted psychological strategy by the corporate stronghold. Folks can call it whatever they like -- other countries have healthcare and generous paid time off for all people, so I don't need to act like it's some pie in the sky ideal.

    Back to the election -- yes, for those who can't stomach any leftward economic ideals yet, we push worker's rights and helping lift back up the middle class, putting a microscope on how Trump's claims to do so were a FARCE. Because they were.[/QUOTE]
     
    Nebaghead said:
    It’s not statistically close at this point. Dems need to treat it like it’s close so they don’t lose momentum. Like a football game, taking a lead in the first quarter doesn’t mean crap if you don’t keep being aggressive.
    Click to expand...
    Just going by 538's model - it is closer or about right where Clinton was for most of October.

    I think Biden is running too safe of a race. They are very different candidates but his campaign "feels" a lot like Clinton's in that he really isn't connecting with the voters on the purpose of his candidacy. It is driven largely by anti-Trump sentiment. That may be enough to win in this election - but if he could articulate a strong/simple message as to what he will do for the county it would probably be a landslide.

    I am sort of thinking something along the lines of "bringing back competence" or something similar.
     
    JimEverett said:
    Just going by 538's model - it is closer or about right where Clinton was for most of October.

    I think Biden is running too safe of a race. They are very different candidates but his campaign "feels" a lot like Clinton's in that he really isn't connecting with the voters on the purpose of his candidacy. It is driven largely by anti-Trump sentiment. That may be enough to win in this election - but if he could articulate a strong/simple message as to what he will do for the county it would probably be a landslide.

    I am sort of thinking something along the lines of "bringing back competence" or something similar.
    Click to expand...

    I agree - was thinking about that last week, and I'm anticipating that Biden will use the debates to cast a "competence / civility / professionalism" contrast with Trump. I hope that's his plan, and that he not only presents with that, but regularly calls it out during the events. But Clinton tried that, "a man who can be baited with a tweet shouldn't have the nuclear codes" or something to that effect. I suppose now, however, it's not as hypothetical - we have all seen it in action for the better part of four years.
     
    JimEverett said:
    Just going by 538's model - it is closer or about right where Clinton was for most of October.

    I think Biden is running too safe of a race. They are very different candidates but his campaign "feels" a lot like Clinton's in that he really isn't connecting with the voters on the purpose of his candidacy. It is driven largely by anti-Trump sentiment. That may be enough to win in this election - but if he could articulate a strong/simple message as to what he will do for the county it would probably be a landslide.

    I am sort of thinking something along the lines of "bringing back competence" or something similar.
    Click to expand...
    538 changed their model so it isn’t an exact apples to apples comparison. As mentioned by other people the number of undecideds in the polls are much smaller giving less fluctuation for a break to Trump. He would have to peel votes from Biden.
    I think the debates are a key milestone in the race and you will see both campaigns shift their strategy based on its outcome.
    I think the SC nomination will help Trump since it takes news away from Covid. If there is a large bump in cases in the fall like ther was in June then he will lose the benefit of the appointment distraction.
     
    New analysis from Moody's...

    thehill.com

    Analysis: Biden victory, Democratic sweep would bring biggest boost to economy

    A victory for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, a Democratic takeover of the Senate and defense of the party’s House majority in the November elections would be the best ou…
    thehill.com thehill.com

    Zandi and Yaros argued that a total Democratic sweep would bring the biggest boost to the economy because of Biden’s plans to spend trillions on infrastructure, education and the social safety net while boosting trade and immigration. They also argued that the higher taxes proposed to fund part of these plans would not slow the economy in a meaningful way.

    “Greater government spending adds directly to [gross domestic product] and jobs, while the higher tax burden has an indirect impact through business investment and the spending and saving behavior of high-income households,” they wrote.

    “Longer-term growth under Biden’s policies is also stronger because on net they expand the supply side of the economy—the quantity and quality of labor and capital needed to produce goods and services,” they added.
    Click to expand...
     

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