Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[UriUT]

I did see that, and I just cannot get my head around how it's real. I keep rechecking, and no, it's a legitimate account tweeting it (Francis Scarr, BBC Monitoring's Russia specialist), other legitimate accounts have reported it, it appears to be a real thing that the FSB really did.

But that means not only did someone go out and get three copies of Sims 3 expansions, presumably instead of 'three sims', but nobody involved, at any point during the whole staging the scene, filming and photographing, sharing the videos and photos, reviewing them, and releasing them, noticed, cared, or felt able to say:"Say, guys, what is the deal with the Sims games here anyway?"

On the signature thing, I've seen it suggested that may not be a blunder, that there's a Russian Neo Nazi and associated group who do genuinely use 'signature illegible' as a pseudonym and handle. And there does appear to be some truth in that (see, e.g. this twitter thread).

But that does not explain the Sims 3 thing. I'm pretty sure there was no 'The Sims 3: Neo Nazis' expansion.

I read that the official release cut out the book signature out and blurred the sims card. Perhaps the higher ups realized the underling incompetence and corrected it that way.


Edit: found where I read this before.

Social media users were quick to point that the SIMS game and “Signature unclear” could be signs that the arrest was part of an FSB hoax gone wrong, pointing out the directives for setting up the scene of the crime might have included planting three SIM cards and signing the book with an indiscernible signature—and that these instructions might have been misunderstood or taken too literally by the agents. Perhaps realizing their agents have flubbed, official videos posted by the FSB on its YouTube channel excluded the book and blurred the images of the SIMS video games

 

[UriUT]

It's just so mental to me - Russian propaganda has it that Ukraine is overrun by Nazis and extremists, yet they dismiss western journalists and Moscow critics as Jews and they talk about shirt like this as they engage in genocidal activity in Ukraine. It's totally mental.

Agree that it’s all mental targeted at the uninformed, stupid, or willingly want to be deceived crowd…which is almost all of Russia. I don’t see how it is this different from here in the us…say the Jan 6th, pedophilia …or even the hunter Biden? I had a convo with my bro in law this past weekend. He couldn’t believe how brainwashed Russia is and stated it can’t happen here. I gently threw out tuckers name as a response.

I mean this has been consistent with their media. They rail at the inferiority of the west and yet their elites live lavishly here. Solovyov, their main media speaking head bitched on air that the Italians confiscated his million dollars villas.

 

[superchuck500]

Rand Paul seems to think that if Russia attacks countries that used to be part of the Soviet Union, it's somehow _______________?

 

[DaveXA]

Rand Paul seems to think that if Russia attacks countries that used to be part of the Soviet Union, it's somehow _______________?

Paul is still a forking idiot. That is all.

 

[UriUT]

Rand Paul seems to think that if Russia attacks countries that used to be part of the Soviet Union, it's somehow _______________?

So messed up. How do you say "I'm a Russian stooge" without saying it?

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/04/lloyd-austin-weaken-russia-ukraine-war-putin-greenwald.html

Gotta love the Greenwald bit.

This is an inversion of reality Orwell could only admire. Ukraine’s destruction is the objective of Russia’s invasion, not the “price” of American aid to Ukraine. Indeed, American aid to Ukraine is designed to prevent its destruction.

Ukrainians are begging for American aid because they don’t want to be destroyed. The absence of assistance from the west would mean Russian troops raping, looting, and bombing their way across the country.

Obviously, the United States wants to weaken Russia — because Russia is threatening Ukraine. The war will go on until Russia is too weak to continue waging war in Ukraine. This is perfectly obvious as long as you understand Russia, not the United States, started the war.

The trouble is, some people cannot understand this.

 

[UriUT]

Not sure how reliable this is, but this will quickly help strangle Russia's ability sooner rather than later. And quite possibly end the war sooner.

 

[zztop]

this is from a tech site, but talks about some steps russia is taking to get around some sanctions

Russia Legalizes Shady Imports of AMD, Intel and Apple Goods to Dodge Sanctions

Goods can be imported without the copyright holders' consent.

www.tomshardware.com

The country's latest steps to dodge economic and technology sanctions consist of legalizing the import of goods regardless of whether or not they have permission from the copyright holders. Russians will thus still be able to access hardware from the likes of AMD, Intel, Apple, Asus, Huawei, and others, despite these companies' decision to no longer provide their products in the heavily-sanctioned country.

It's reported that the Russian government itself worked on the list of companies and products now allowed for sale in the parallel market via its Ministry of Industry and Trade. In a bid to stem the bleeding of cutting-edge tech for both its governmental infrastructure and its citizens, the country has added car brands (such as Bentley, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Chrysler, Dodge, Skoda, Tesla, Toyota, etc.) and their replacement parts, such as branded tires (Michelin, Goodyear, etc) to its listing.

 

[SaintForLife]

The problem with your argument is that everything that America was doing in Ukraine, Russia was doing tenfold. Yanukovych was such a Russian puppet he moved there after being ousted. The broadest, and fairest take of the situation is Russia influenced the country heavily. Then OIL/GAS deposits are found. American companies start projects for extraction in 2013. Yanukovych gets ousted in 2014, and those two things are probably related. Russia immediately attacks.

If America is "destabilizing" the country. What was Russia doing for decades? How do you rationalize what Russia did to Yushchenko? You are essentially saying that it's ok for Russia to influence the country, but not America. That's why you come off, rightly so, as a pro-russian troll.

It's like trying to argue American arms are destabilizing Ukraine right now. What is implied is that a "stable Ukraine" is a conquered Ukraine. Which is something straight from the FSB.

P.S. I also feel like these discussions widely overestimate American influence. If America was this good at regime change, Cuba, and Venezuela would be capitalist countries.

I never claimed Russia wasn't busy doing bad things in Ukraine. Why is it okay for the US to support or install friendly puppets throughout the world, but not okay if Russia does it? For the record I don't think any country especially the US and Russia should be meddling in other countries and installing leaders who will do what they want.

The constant calls of someone being a Russian supporter or a troll for pointing out what the US does and their hypocrisy is tiring and idiotic.

This is more of a general question and not necessarily aimed at you; is there anyone here who thinks the US didn't push and support coups in Ukraine not once, but twice?

Is there anyone claiming that the US isn't the world leader in destabilizing countries that don't do what we want through covert or overt operations?

Ian Traynor: US campaign behind the turmoil in Kiev

Analysis: Ukraine, traditionally passive in its politics, has been mobilised by young democracy activists and will never be the same again.

www.theguardian.com

It's not Russia that's pushed Ukraine to the brink of war | Seumas Milne

Seumas Milne: The attempt to lever Kiev into the western camp by ousting an elected leader made conflict certain. It could be a threat to us all

www.theguardian.com

Here's Victoria Nuland discussing who should be the next leader of Ukraine

Ukraine crisis: Transcript of leaked Nuland-Pyatt call

A transcript of the alleged conversation between Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and the US ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt discussing the crisis in Ukraine.

www.bbc.com

Also:

The British-American coup that ended Australian independence | John Pilger

John Pilger: In 1975 prime minister Gough Whitlam, who has died this week, dared to try to assert his country’s autonomy. The CIA and MI6 made sure he paid the price

www.theguardian.com

 

[DaveXA]

I never claimed Russia wasn't busy doing bad things in Ukraine. Why is it okay for the US to support or install friendly puppets throughout the world, but not okay if Russia does it? For the record I don't think any country especially the US and Russia should be meddling in other countries and installing leaders who will do what they want.

The constant calls of someone being a Russian supporter or a troll for pointing out what the US does and their hypocrisy is tiring and idiotic.

This is more of a general question and not necessarily aimed at you; is there anyone here who thinks the US didn't push and support coups in Ukraine not once, but twice?

Is there anyone claiming that the US isn't the world leader in destabilizing countries that don't do what we want through covert or overt operations?

Ian Traynor: US campaign behind the turmoil in Kiev

Analysis: Ukraine, traditionally passive in its politics, has been mobilised by young democracy activists and will never be the same again.

www.theguardian.com

It's not Russia that's pushed Ukraine to the brink of war | Seumas Milne

Seumas Milne: The attempt to lever Kiev into the western camp by ousting an elected leader made conflict certain. It could be a threat to us all

www.theguardian.com

Here's Victoria Nuland discussing who should be the next leader of Ukraine

Ukraine crisis: Transcript of leaked Nuland-Pyatt call

A transcript of the alleged conversation between Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and the US ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt discussing the crisis in Ukraine.

www.bbc.com

Also:

The British-American coup that ended Australian independence | John Pilger

John Pilger: In 1975 prime minister Gough Whitlam, who has died this week, dared to try to assert his country’s autonomy. The CIA and MI6 made sure he paid the price

www.theguardian.com

Man, your whataboutism and deflection is comical...and frankly comes across as making excuses for Russia invading a sovereign nation. Are you Rand Paul?

 

[UriUT]

Ukraine crisis: Transcript of leaked Nuland-Pyatt call

A transcript of the alleged conversation between Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and the US ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt discussing the crisis in Ukraine.

www.bbc.com

The clear purpose in leaking this conversation is to embarrass Washington and for audiences susceptible to Moscow's message to portray the US as interfering in Ukraine's domestic affairs.

Edit:
Oh I enjoyed the part where the two discussed the "big 3" and the video flashed the CIA and 2 other intelligence department. Yep, susceptible to Russian propaganda.

 

[DaveXA]

Ukraine crisis: Transcript of leaked Nuland-Pyatt call

A transcript of the alleged conversation between Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and the US ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt discussing the crisis in Ukraine.

www.bbc.com

Susceptible to Moscow's message. Damn straight.

 

[SaintForLife]

Man, your whataboutism and deflection is comical...and frankly comes across as making excuses for Russia invading a sovereign nation. Are you Rand Paul?

Do you have any comment about the 2 coups that the US supported in Ukraine or will you just continue with the deflections and the new age Mccarthyism?

 

[SaintForLife]

Ukraine crisis: Transcript of leaked Nuland-Pyatt call

A transcript of the alleged conversation between Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and the US ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt discussing the crisis in Ukraine.

www.bbc.com

Edit:
Oh I enjoyed the part where the two discussed the "big 3" and the video flashed the CIA and 2 other intelligence department. Yep, susceptible to Russian propaganda.

Very telling that what you took from a US official planning the installation of a puppet leader is "susceptible to Russian propaganda."

It's obvious that the constant US propaganda has clouded your brain.

 

[DaveXA]

Do you have any comment about the 2 coups that the US supported in Ukraine or will you just continue with the deflections and the new age Mccarthyism?

Lmforkingao, we're talking about Russia. So...no I don't. Since you can't see your own hypocrisy, I'm done.

 

[DaveXA]

Very telling that what you took from a US official planning the installation of a puppet leader is "susceptible to Russian propaganda."

It's obvious that the constant US propaganda has clouded your brain.

 

[SaintForLife]

LMAO, we're talking about Russia. So...no I don't.

Thats what I thought. It would contradict the US propaganda that you have been fed for years. Be careful. Putin might be under you bed or in your closet.

 

[DaveXA]

Thats what I thought. It would contradict the US propaganda that you have been fed for years. Be careful. Putin might be under you bed or in your closet.

It would make sense that you know where Putin is. I mean, it all adds up since you're so far up his arse you can't see straight.

 

[SaintForLife]

It would make sense that you know where Putin is. I mean, it all adds up since you're so far up his arse you can't see straight.

Omg that's so funny. Rather than use some critical thinking you result to childish insults, but I guess that's all you have to go on. The US War machine and the military industrial complex loves dupes like you.