Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[MT15]

Ukraine hit a Russian munitions depot and it registered as an earthquake.

 

[LA - L.A.]

It looks like South Korean soldiers are in the process of being deployed to Ukraine and Russian soldiers are less than thrilled about it.

If South Korean soldiers are sent to fight in Ukraine, I think European nations will respond in kind. I definitely hope they do.

‘What the f**k to do with them?’ Russian soldiers heard condemning North Korean recruits in intercepted audio | CNN

Russian soldiers have been heard raising concerns about how North Korean soldiers will be commanded and provided with ammunition and military kit, leaked intercepts obtained by the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine and released on Friday show.

www.cnn.com

 

[MT15]

It seems the NK troops are having an impact, just not the type of impact Putin wanted.

 

[DaveXA]

It seems the NK troops are having an impact, just not the type of impact Putin wanted.

Are we shocked that this is happening? Lol.

 

[LA - L.A.]

Are we shocked that this is happening? Lol.

Regarding the election, I more worried about Putin than Trump. Putin is toast if Trump loses the election and things remain relatively peaceful here after Trump loses. I expect there will be an attempt at a major cyber attack targeting everything on election day. Don't know if it will succeed or not, but I definitely think it's coming.

 

[Taurus]

Regarding the election, I more worried about Putin than Trump. Putin is toast if Trump loses the election and things remain relatively peaceful here after Trump loses. I expect there will be an attempt at a major cyber attack targeting everything on election day. Don't know if it will succeed or not, but I definitely think it's coming.

I keep wondering what event will at last trigger an aggressive response from the US. We invented the Internet, we employ the world's best hackers but we almost never go on the offensive because we don't want our opponents to know what we can do. Which is cool, I get that a number of exploits are going to be single-use. But eventually you have to fire that gun you got for self-defense, do we need to wait until there's actually a knife in our chest?

 

[efil4]

I keep wondering what event will at last trigger an aggressive response from the US. We invented the Internet, we employ the world's best hackers but we almost never go on the offensive because we don't want our opponents to know what we can do. Which is cool, I get that a number of exploits are going to be single-use. But eventually you have to fire that gun you got for self-defense, do we need to wait until there's actually a knife in our chest?

I think there was a fear in the Administration that any direct involvement in this conflict would lead to direct confrontation with Russia/Iran/NK that would require US troops and drag us into a war. I honestly think the Admin wanted to avoid this at all costs, while still doing what we could to help.

I think, post election, the US will take a different approach to this. I hope they grow a pair and start flooding equipment and supplies to Ukraine to finally remove the handcuffs.

The Wests' ( collectively ) apprehension at every step of this has given this Axis the ability to step across a line, test the results, see no real consequences, and repeat ( Other than sanctions, which ARE working, just very very slow, but make no mistake Russian economically is in an abyss they simply arent going to be able to recover from for decade or more- its really quite bad )

With that said, i would like to see us flood the zone so that the UAF can finally rid themselves of Russian aggression.

Russia ( Putin ) seemingly have no problem with 700,000 losses ( just passed that number yesterday ) and it continues. NK now tossed 8-10k into the grinder and reports are they are getting merked in Kursk.

This is what US arms can do to Russian armor.

( this is shorter version - longer shows the 6 dismounts also dealt with )

 

[SamAndreas]

Are we shocked that this is happening? Lol.

I don't know that it's happening. I googled his statement and got nothing back which indicated that Archer didn't just make it up.

I looked at his feed and other than being somewhat politically aligned with me, he didn't strike me as being someone who has an inside source. He seems to be a lot about youth and race cars.

He posted this:

When I say it might not be happening I mean a fairly large contingent of North Korean troops, enough to make a difference, not just a few token Korean military observers/advisers who happen to be there.

We have people there in that regard as well. We also have some of our citizens there who have volunteered to be fighting there. Most of the countries in Europe also have a few citizen volunteers in the Ukrainian military.

I do believe the Ukrainians might have a North Korean passport they took off of a prisoner or someone who was killed. I saw a report of that yesterday that seemed almost credible. Maybe.

 

[MT15]

I don't know that it's happening. I googled his statement and got nothing back which indicated that Archer didn't just make it up.

I looked at his feed and other than being somewhat politically aligned with me, he didn't strike me as being someone who has an inside source. He seems to be a lot about youth and race cars.

He posted this:

When I say it might not be happening I mean a fairly large contingent of North Korean troops, enough to make a difference, not just a few token Korean military observers/advisers who happen to be there.

We have people there in that regard as well. We also have some of our citizens there who have volunteered to be fighting there. Most of the countries in Europe also have a few citizen volunteers in the Ukrainian military.

I do believe the Ukrainians might have a North Korean passport they took off of a prisoner or someone who was killed. I saw a report of that yesterday that seemed almost credible. Maybe.

It’s all good - posted it because it amuses me, and IMO there’s no reason to think that NK troops would be any more competent than Russian troops turned out to be.

 

[UriUT]

Is liberal democracy fighting back?

Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

He's getting there! He could have laid it on a little thicker though.

"I just had the most perfect, greatest call ever with His Excellency, President DJT..."

 

[SamAndreas]

I voted for them to have something none-alco to be ornery, It turns out that option has the majority. I guess 39% of the people are ornery.



It's OK if they have beer.

 

[SamAndreas]

I don't think I've posted an Oksii tweet on this board before, I have in the main board Ukrainian thread.

She's a self described "Spicy Ukrainian."

 

[Bigdaddysaints]

Russia isn't just gonna be like, here have evening back. we are leaving.
Ukraine is gonna want Crimera back.
the territory UKR took from Russia is gonna save their tail from being Railroaded by Trump..

 

[SamAndreas]

Russia isn't just gonna be like, here have evening back. we are leaving.
Ukraine is gonna want Crimera back.
the territory UKR took from Russia is gonna save their tail from being Railroaded by Trump..

I don't know why I would expect him to do as he said he would do.

>>> The watchword for today is "unpredictable." <<<

Who knows what he's going to do, or more to the point, not do.

"It's like there's a HORSE loose in a HOSPITAL."

 

[Bigdaddysaints]

I don't know why I would expect him to do as he said he would do.

>>> The watchword for today is "unpredictable." <<<

Who knows what he's going to do, or more to the point, not do.

"It's like there's a HORSE loose in a HOSPITAL."

and i would be overly skeptical if Putin does just pick up and go home, that woud be a clear sign that he just purchased the US presidency..

 

[MT15]

and i would be overly skeptical if Putin does just pick up and go home, that woud be a clear sign that he just purchased the US presidency..

You don’t purchase something you already own. He’s in the driver’s seat now already.

 

[superchuck500]