Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (3 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[LA - L.A.]

Does this remind anyone of someone else we all know?

“He is not good at resolving crises,” Boris Bondarev, a former Russian diplomat who resigned two years ago in protest over the war in Ukraine, and is still living outside Russia, told CNN. “It’s risky, it’s not predictable. Putin likes comfort, he likes it when he is making the crisis for others, when he controls the situation.”

Ukraine’s march into Russia exposes Putin’s crisis management problem | CNN

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin likes to project himself as a strongman. But his track record of handling recent crises in Russia reveals a different side of his presidential persona: one of paralysis and indecision.

www.cnn.com

 

[MT15]

Also, Kharkiv has street lights again, really beautiful ones.

 

[LA - L.A.]

Also, Kharkiv has street lights again, really beautiful ones.

Amazing how defiantly beautiful such a simple thing can be.

 

[MT15]

Putting this here because it may tangentially impact the Ukraine invasion. The head of Telegram was arrested in France. Russia has been using Telegram for years to carry out all sorts of nefarious plans from election interference to actual military operations. Word is that this is actually a defection that is being framed as an arrest, if so that would be a huge intelligence coup for NATO and the West in general. Not finding much being said in main stream media just yet.

 

[MT15]

Long thread about this arrest - he is a French citizen, not subject to extradition. He flew to France and had to know he would be arrested - lending credence to the defection theory. Just putting the first tweet here.

 

[bird]

Long thread about this arrest - he is a French citizen, not subject to extradition. He flew to France and had to know he would be arrested - lending credence to the defection theory. Just putting the first tweet here.

Another “Tech Bro” piece of schlitz.

 

[LA - L.A.]

Putting this here because it may tangentially impact the Ukraine invasion. The head of Telegram was arrested in France. Russia has been using Telegram for years to carry out all sorts of nefarious plans from election interference to actual military operations. Word is that this is actually a defection that is being framed as an arrest, if so that would be a huge intelligence coup for NATO and the West in general. Not finding much being said in main stream media just yet.

"He left Russia in 2014 after refusing to comply with requests from the Russian government to turn over data on Ukrainian Vkontakte users and now lives in Dubai."

Detention of Telegram founder sparks debate about free speech and criminal activity online | CNN Business

The detention of the Russian-born billionaire founder of Telegram, a messaging app known for its unfiltered content, has sparked debate about freedom of speech and illegal content on the internet.

www.cnn.com

 

[MT15]

"He left Russia in 2014 after refusing to comply with requests from the Russian government to turn over data on Ukrainian Vkontakte users and now lives in Dubai."

Detention of Telegram founder sparks debate about free speech and criminal activity online | CNN Business

The detention of the Russian-born billionaire founder of Telegram, a messaging app known for its unfiltered content, has sparked debate about freedom of speech and illegal content on the internet.

www.cnn.com

Yes, I also read where just in the last few days he had requested a one-on-one meeting with Putin and was denied. He had to know he would be arrested if he set foot on French soil - maybe he was more afraid of being poisoned by Putin? Just speculation, of course. But one can hope he has turned and will give up everything he knows about Putin and all his crimes.

 

[LA - L.A.]

Yes, I also read where just in the last few days he had requested a one-on-one meeting with Putin and was denied. He had to know he would be arrested if he set foot on French soil - maybe he was more afraid of being poisoned by Putin? Just speculation, of course. But one can hope he has turned and will give up everything he knows about Putin and all his crimes.

And where Putin and the oligarchs have their money and other assets hidden.

 

[efil4]

Long thread about this arrest - he is a French citizen, not subject to extradition. He flew to France and had to know he would be arrested - lending credence to the defection theory. Just putting the first tweet here.

 

[coldseat]

I wish people would stop abusing "free speech" that puts others in danger, so that we don't have to keep making laws that restrict free speech to keep people safe. Free speech is a two way responsibility, that seems to always escape the (non)"free speech truthers".

Also, criminal activity isn't free speech. If criminal activity is taking place on whatever you're hosting, whether it be a restaurant or a website, you better work with authorities to stop it, or they're going to shut you down.

 

[efil4]

ITs only beginning

Lots of folks trying to "scrub" their devices over last few days and they better hurry

Waiting to see if we find any " US politicians " ( ahem ) in any of this.

 

[SamAndreas]

Well,,, I'm sure glad now that I suspected that Telegram outfit of nefarious activities enough to avoid ever giving it my phone number.

I did find out that one has to have a "smart phone" number to make that Telegram thing work. Apparently it functions on the basis of phone text messaging. So to do it one has to give it your phone number.

I don't want to text message, so I don't do that. I use my phone in the ye ole fashioned way.

 

[bird]

Well,,, I'm sure glad now that I suspected that Telegram outfit of nefarious activities enough to avoid ever giving it my phone number.

I did find out that one has to have a "smart phone" number to make that Telegram thing work. Apparently it functions on the basis of phone text messaging. So to do it one has to give it your phone number.

I don't want to text message, so I don't do that. I use my phone in the ye ole fashioned way.

I text some but also use the phone as, you know, a phone.

 

[LA - L.A.]

I bet every single one of those people complaining are desperately purging things they've written on their Telegram accounts.

ETA: I saw a few posts later that I would have won my bet, because people are indeed desperately trying to scrub their Telegram accounts. Better pray that Telegram doesn't keep a ghost database and it seems like Durov is the type that would keep a ghost database as a bargaining chip for an occasion just like this.

 

[efil4]

I bet every single one of those people complaining are desperately purging things they've written on their Telegram accounts.

ETA: I saw a few posts later that I would have won my bet, because people are indeed desperately trying to scrub their Telegram accounts. Better pray that Telegram doesn't keep a ghost database and it seems like Durov is the type that would keep a ghost database as bargaining chip for an occasion just like this.

And I read it was NOT "end to end" encryption ( I'm no tech guy, but just hearing that gives me a lil understanding of what they mean)

 

[LA - L.A.]

And I read it was NOT "end to end" encryption ( I'm no tech guy, but just hearing that gives me a lil understanding of what they mean)

Yeah, it means that Telegram could read everything everyone sent to everybody. There are reports that Telegram was allowing the FSB to use it to spy on people.

 

[LA - L.A.]

Ukraine strikes near Moscow again and there are a lot of immobile assets in Russia that are now in range of Ukrainian Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS).

"An analysis last month from a Washington-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), supported Ukrainian claims there are high-value targets inside Russia within range of ATAMCS.​

​

ISW said it had identified 233 Russian targets – “large military bases, communications stations, logistics centers, repair facilities, fuel depots, ammunition warehouses, and permanent headquarters” – in range of ATACMS that are immobile assets, meaning Moscow cannot move them out of harm’s way.​

​

And ISW said Ukraine would only need to use ATACMS to strike some of those targets to have a significant impact on Russia’s ability to fight on the front lines."​

Ukraine carries out one of its biggest-ever drone attacks on Russia | CNN

Ukraine launched one of its biggest-ever drone attacks on Russia over the weekend, hitting a refinery and power station deep inside the country, according to videos posted on social media and geolocated by CNN.

www.cnn.com