Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (5 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[MT15]

Well, in this environment, I don't think it matters who's speaker. The speaker has been rendered useless here.

Not really. All McCarthy has to do is rally the normal Rs and strike a deal with the centrist Dems. He could render the Maga idiots powerless. It’s been done before - I heard someone on TV talk about times it’s been done in the past to neutralize a lunatic fringe. The Dem leadership would have to be on board, and both sides would have to compromise.

Pelosi passed a whole bunch of legislation with a very similar situation number-wise.

 

[Lapaz]

Not really. All McCarthy has to do is rally the normal Rs and strike a deal with the centrist Dems. He could render the Maga idiots powerless. It’s been done before - I heard someone on TV talk about times it’s been done in the past to neutralize a lunatic fringe. The Dem leadership would have to be on board, and both sides would have to compromise.

Pelosi passed a whole bunch of legislation with a very similar situation number-wise.

The problem is that Democrats hate McCarthy too. He's a weasel. He knows there is no justification to start an impeachment enquiry against Joe. If he were to act like a reasonable leader, then I think Democrats would give him some wins. He's not worthy of his position. If I were the Democrats, I would be working behind the scenes to offer a list of Republicans that they could support for leadership. I think any never-Trumper would get Democratic support. I don't care how conservative they are, as long as they want Democracy to thrive.

 

[DaveXA]

Not really. All McCarthy has to do is rally the normal Rs and strike a deal with the centrist Dems. He could render the Maga idiots powerless. It’s been done before - I heard someone on TV talk about times it’s been done in the past to neutralize a lunatic fringe. The Dem leadership would have to be on board, and both sides would have to compromise.

Pelosi passed a whole bunch of legislation with a very similar situation number-wise.

I disagree. The Democrats and ironically, the RWN gang have a lot of leverage. The House is divided in a way that the Republicans can't do much without gaining broad support from the RW nuts, or some support from the Democrats. There's no incentive for the Democrats to really work with the Republicans. They're not removing McCarthy, and they're not gonna get to pick the replacement. It's not gonna matter. The flip situation isn't the same at all. It is what it is.

 

[cuddlemonkey]

I disagree. The Democrats and ironically, the RWN gang have a lot of leverage. The House is divided in a way that the Republicans can't do much without gaining broad support from the RW nuts, or some support from the Democrats. There's no incentive for the Democrats to really work with the Republicans. They're not removing McCarthy, and they're not gonna get to pick the replacement. It's not gonna matter. The flip situation isn't the same at all. It is what it is.

The time to make a deal with the handful of reasonable Republicans was during the speaker nomination process. They could have thrown their support behind a centrist and frozen out McCarthy and the far-right butt crevasses.

 

[DaveXA]

The time to make a deal with the handful of reasonable Republicans was during the speaker nomination process. They could have thrown their support behind a centrist and frozen out McCarthy and the far-right butt crevasses.

Certainly, but I think at the time they wanted to give the Rs enough rope to hang themselves. And that pretty much happened.

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

The time to make a deal with the handful of reasonable Republicans was during the speaker nomination process. They could have thrown their support behind a centrist and frozen out McCarthy and the far-right butt crevasses.

The problem is that there are no more prominent Republican moderates left in the House, they either choose to stay at home or they lost to an extremist. The Democrats were wise not to side with any of the remainder Republican Reps because they have repeatedly shown that they are not trustworthy.

 

[cuddlemonkey]

The problem is that there are no more prominent Republican moderates left in the House, they either choose to stay at home or they lost to an extremist. The Democrats were wise not to side with any of the remainder Republican Reps because they have repeatedly shown that they are not trustworthy.

Fair.

 

[Lapaz]

Just saw a poll in PBS that only 62% of Democrats support continued funding for Ukraine and 71% of Republicans oppose it. The Republican number isn’t surprising given Trump’s position is normally what the rest of Republicans will take, but I’m a little surprised that the Democrat’s number is as low as it is. I hope independents are still supportive for the sake of world order. We may be headed for a stalemate until Ukraine’s military can be modernized, particularly its Air Force. That might be acceptable as long as the west follows through on that.

 

[efil4]

Just saw a poll in PBS that only 62% of Democrats support continued funding for Ukraine and 71% of Republicans oppose it. The Republican number isn’t surprising given Trump’s position is normally what the rest of Republicans will take, but I’m a little surprised that the Democrat’s number is as low as it is. I hope independents are still supportive for the sake of world order. We may be headed for a stalemate until Ukraine’s military can be modernized, particularly its Air Force. That might be acceptable as long as the west follows through on that.

im going to say that number among independents ( like myself ) is higher. its still 2/3s.

The messaging has to be better going forward. US has to counter the dis-info from Rs about " OmGZ Biden sending all your tax dollahs to uKraINE"

 

[SaintForLife]

im going to say that number among independents ( like myself ) is higher. its still 2/3s.

The messaging has to be better going forward. US has to counter the dis-info from Rs about " OmGZ Biden sending all your tax dollahs to uKraINE"

It's good that you admit the propaganda needs to be better going forward. It's good for warmongers to acknowledge that.

 

[SaintForLife]

 

[Lapaz]

It's good that you admit the propaganda needs to be better going forward. It's good for warmongers to acknowledge that.

Warmongers? So do you think we should've stayed out of WWI and II? Do you think we should get out of NATO? Do you think helping a pro-american democracy is being a warmonger? Should anyone help us if we get attacked?

 

[MT15]

Maybe the recent uptick in verbal attacks are due to this:

 

[J-DONK]

Warmongers? So do you think we should've stayed out of WWI and II? Do you think we should get out of NATO? Do you think helping a pro-american democracy is being a warmonger? Should anyone help us if we get attacked?

The Greenwald tweet also uses "Biden's War". It's interesting how much Russian propaganda, and the stuff SFL post mirrors each other.

For anyone who doesn't get it. Russia doesn't see Ukraine as a real country. The territory belongs to Russia. If Ukraine fights back that's because of "NATO, EU, or the West". They reject Ukraine's autonomy wholesale.

There is almost no daylight between that idea, and calling it "Biden's War". It's as if ole Glen refuses to acknowledge that Ukraine did fight, and successfully counter the Russian invasion before any major western arms were supplied.

I just wish this dribble didn't get posted. Why can't they think about these things at all beyond the surface level? It's obvious that Republicans see that Ukraine is starting to make progress. A Ukrainian victory is a major foreign policy victory for Biden. Republican lawmakers, and policymakers probably would rather Ukraine win in a bubble, but they can't have a Democrat scoring the biggest win against Russia since Saint Reagan. So, Republicans adopt a ton of Russian talking points about the war. The goal is to make the war, and our support for Ukraine, unpopular with the base. We then end up getting spammed with Russian talking points on the board.

 

[Dragon]

One of the lessons learned in the 20th century is that dictators never stop on their own, They continue until someone says enough. Europe knows that very well - the question for US and the rest of the world is if they want to face Russia alone or with friends, That is why Europe is so united behind Ukraine. It only takes 14 hours to drive from Copenhagen to Kyiv, 24 hours to Moscow. Berlin is 11 hours from Kyiv and Paris 23 hours.

We know the enemy . Europe has a long history with dictators of different kinds and giving in to one has never been the solution just a small delay of the unavoidable fight .

 

[efil4]

It's good that you admit the propaganda needs to be better going forward. It's good for warmongers to acknowledge that.

LOL "warmonger" - where have I advocated for this war? Show me. The US nor Ukraine asked for this. Russia invaded Ukraine. A sovereign, independent country from Russia. They termed it a "special military operation" ( thats the Ruski term, not mine, not the US, not NATO- Russia ) Ukraine did the only thing it was left to do- defend and fight. I certainly didnt advocate for Russia to invade Ukraine. I didnt advocate for Russia to commit war crimes in Bucha or Irpin. I didnt advocate for Russia to target ( and continues to target ) the civilian population.

What i did and do advocate for is providing the Ukrainians with everything they could possibly need to defend themselves from this Russian aggression of expanding the Russian empire ( again, these are Putins goals/desires- not made up - you have seen the publication, excerpts etc of his great return to the Soviet empire ). I advocate for giving Ukraine what it needs to drive Russian occupants out of Ukraine, recognize the sovereignty of Ukraine, and return to peace. Unfortunately Putin has no desire for this. So the conflict continues.

Putin is wasting 1000s of Russian lives to simply drag this out for as long as he can because he knows just how fickle many US citizens are especially when it comes to politics and conflict. Your post above ( along with a bevy of previous posts on this topic ) are exactly why he does what he does. He is attempting to wait it out so that the drowned out voices currently, like yours, try to rise to the top and change the US feeling on the subject. We have no troops actively engaging Russians. We have no planes actively engaging Russians. We are decimating the Russian military not because we simply want to- all this bloodshed and losses could end TOMORROW if Putin announced an end to the hostilities, removed troops and hardware from Ukraine. But he wont.

So in the meantime, this is what the Russians will continue to get:



BTW- those were SCALP ER/Storm Shadows- ( French/UK ) not Tomahawks

But since you are so interested in US weapons- this is what HIMARS does.

 

[Andrus]

It's good that you admit the propaganda needs to be better going forward. It's good for warmongers to acknowledge that.

You did read my post where I told everyone to stop with getting personal and name calling, right? Just making sure.

 

[SaintForLife]