Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[Lapaz]

guess putin got his revenge

Mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is presumed dead in a plane crash outside Moscow

A business jet in Russia has crashed killing all ten people on board, emergency officials said.

apnews.com

It appears that Putin allowed some time to pass to make it less obvious. I thought Putin wouldn’t want to leave any doubt to discourage others from trying, so the time lag surprised me. The question I have is will this entrench Putin even more, or are any Prigozhin loyalists going to revolt?

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Prigozhin's assassination was a predictable as Trump lying.

Surprised it took this long.

 

[zztop]

About time we got some creativity.

Poisoning and defenestration are so passe.

From a post on the Ukraine topic on EE board, seems like the Russian airforce shot it down... which is different than say accidentally falling out of a hotel window etc

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

guess putin got his revenge

Mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is presumed dead in a plane crash outside Moscow

A business jet in Russia has crashed killing all ten people on board, emergency officials said.

apnews.com

 

[MT15]

Seems like Ukraine may be moving on Crimea?

 

[MT15]

Interesting observation about Heritage and their flip-flop on Ukraine:

 

[bird]

Interesting observation about Heritage and their flip-flop on Ukraine:

Welp, the Heritage Foundation has openly shown they are authoritarian.

 

[zztop]

Musk doing Musk things

Musk refused Ukraine’s request to enable Starlink for drone attack [Updated]

New details on how Musk thwarted Ukraine's submarine drone attack near Crimea.

arstechnica.com

 

[coldseat]

Musk doing Musk things

Musk refused Ukraine’s request to enable Starlink for drone attack [Updated]

New details on how Musk thwarted Ukraine's submarine drone attack near Crimea.

arstechnica.com

This guy has too much power. Some of it needs to be taken away. One unelected egomaniac shouldn't have to ability to affect Russia/Ukraine war in that way.

Space X may need to be broken up and the parts of it involved in defense department contracts may need to be nationalized to protect long term US interest.

 

[zztop]

This guy has too much power. Some of it needs to be taken away. One unelected egomaniac shouldn't have to ability to affect Russia/Ukraine war in that way.

Space X may need to be broken up and the parts of it involved in defence department contracts may need to be nationalized to protect long term US interest.

agreed

 

[zztop]

Elon's comment


I like this comment more

 

[CoolBrees]

They need to haul his arse in front of Congress.

If there is communication between him and Russia regarding Starlink, he defied a direct US sanction.

If this is the case, he needs to lose his citizenship, be deported back to South Africa where he's from, lose his ability to own businesses in the US, and liquidate his US shares under the SEC's sanctions laws.

Seriously, I just thought he was just a rich butt crevasse. Turns out he's closer to Wilson Fisk than Tony Stark.

 

[bdb13]

fork him. What a piece of shirt. He would only have been complicit in doing the right thing and that was too much to ask.

 

[MT15]

McCarthy doing the ex-president’s bidding in all things:

 

[efil4]

McCarthy doing the ex-president’s bidding in all things:

Was just coming to post this. His excuse was they were "too busy"

I cannot believe how fractured the Republican party has become. There are factions within that party that are destroying the fabric of the entire Republican party structure.

 

[MT15]

Yeah, they just failed again on a rules vote. People who have followed Congress for years have never seen it happen once, and this is the third time during McCarthy’s speakership.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

So Poland has decided to stop sending arms to Ukraine after Ukraine decided to sue over a grain ban. I hope they get this resolved.

Poland says it will stop arming Ukraine. How did we get here -- and what does it mean for the war? | CNN

One of Ukraine’s closest and most vocal allies has now said it will stop sending arms to Kyiv, a major reversal that threatens to upend Europe’s strategic relationship with the country as it wages a counteroffensive against Russia.

www.cnn.com

 

[DaveXA]

Yeah, they just failed again on a rules vote. People who have followed Congress for years have never seen it happen once, and this is the third time during McCarthy’s speakership.

Well, in this environment, I don't think it matters who's speaker. The speaker has been rendered useless here.